HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Shaanxi Micot Pharmaceutical Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In addition to fierce competition in GLP-1 market, Micot also lacks experience in drug production, market promotion and sales. Any mistake in any link may lead to poor market acceptance.</li>
<li>After a product is launched on the market, whether it can smoothly enter the NRDL and how it is priced will directly determine its market penetration speed and peak sales. </li>
<li>The core drivers of Micot’s valuation mainly depend on the future clinical data and market space of pipeline. Valuation could be lower than peers due to lack of commercialized products. </li>
</ul>


In addition to fierce competition in GLP-1 market, Micot also lacks experience in drug production, market promotion and sales. Any mistake in any link may lead to poor market acceptance.
After a product is launched on the market, whether it can smoothly enter the NRDL and how it is priced will directly determine its market penetration speed and peak sales. 
The core drivers of Micot’s valuation mainly depend on the future clinical data and market space of pipeline. Valuation could be lower than peers due to lack of commercialized products. 


Pre-IPO Shaanxi Micot Pharmaceutical Technology - About the Pipeline and the Concerns Behind

Hangzhou Sciwind Biosciences / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Competition in the entire GLP-1 market is constantly intensifying and evolving, which is expected to shift from the current focus solely on BMI indicators to a comprehensive patient-centered management model.</li>
<li>XW003 faces the challenge of head-to-head trials with competing drugs. There could be uncertainties in future clinical trials of XW004, XW014. Commercialization is a tough task for Sciwind’s GLP-1 pipeline.</li>
<li>The total peak sales of XW003, XW004 and XW014 could be RMB5-7 billion. Valuation of Sciwind could be lower than peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics (1801 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-innogen-pharmaceutical-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44142:1" rel="noopener">Innogen (2591 HK).</a>  </li>
</ul>


Competition in the entire GLP-1 market is constantly intensifying and evolving, which is expected to shift from the current focus solely on BMI indicators to a comprehensive patient-centered management model.
XW003 faces the challenge of head-to-head trials with competing drugs. There could be uncertainties in future clinical trials of XW004, XW014. Commercialization is a tough task for Sciwind’s GLP-1 pipeline.
The total peak sales of XW003, XW004 and XW014 could be RMB5-7 billion. Valuation of Sciwind could be lower than peers such as Innovent Biologics (1801 HK), Innogen (2591 HK).  


Pre-IPO Hangzhou Sciwind Biosciences - Thoughts About the Industry and The GLP-1 Pipeline

Jingze Biopharmaceutical (Hefei) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>JZB33 is expected to have more growth potential than JZB30. However, the rhFSH market is highly competitive. JZB30/JZB33 not only need to compete with MNCs but also domestic Big Pharma.</li>
<li>The "inverted pyramid" pipeline distribution leads to a high dependence JZB30, JZB33, JZB05 for Jingze's performance growth in the next 3-5 years, thus lacking sustained innovation and growth momentum.</li>
<li>Post-Money valuation was RMB3.09 billion after Series C+ Financing. We think valuation of Jingze should be lower than Henlius, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chengdu-kanghong-pharmaceutical-group-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24723:1" rel="noopener">Chengdu Kanghong </a>due to the concerns on commercialization outlook/Biosimilar VBP.</li>
</ul>


JZB33 is expected to have more growth potential than JZB30. However, the rhFSH market is highly competitive. JZB30/JZB33 not only need to compete with MNCs but also domestic Big Pharma.
The "inverted pyramid" pipeline distribution leads to a high dependence JZB30, JZB33, JZB05 for Jingze's performance growth in the next 3-5 years, thus lacking sustained innovation and growth momentum.
Post-Money valuation was RMB3.09 billion after Series C+ Financing. We think valuation of Jingze should be lower than Henlius, Chengdu Kanghong due to the concerns on commercialization outlook/Biosimilar VBP.


Pre-IPO Jingze Biopharmaceutical (Hefei) - The Concerns and the Outlook

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.</li>
<li>Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.</li>
<li>Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.</li>
</ul>


Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.
Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.
Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.  </li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.</li>
</ul>


The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.  
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Alibaba (9988 HK) has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

China

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. develops and manufactures pharmaceutical products, including chemical medicines, bio-chemical medicines, biological engineering medicines, chemical compound crude medicines, antibiotics, micro-ecological preparations, patent Chinese medicines, and diagnosis reagents etc.

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Livzon Pharmaceutical Group (1513 HK)

Pre-IPO Shaanxi Micot Pharmaceutical Technology - About the Pipeline and the Concerns Behind

In addition to fierce competition, Micot lacks experience in drug promotion and sales. The core drivers of valuation depend on future clinical data...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Sciwind Biosciences - Thoughts About the Industry and The GLP-1 Pipeline

Due to fierce competition, Sciwind's pipeline face challenges in head-to-head trial/commercialization.Peak sales of XW003/XW004/XW014 estimated at...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Jingze Biopharmaceutical (Hefei) - The Concerns and the Outlook

"Inverted pyramid" pipeline distribution lead to high dependence JZB30/JZB33/JZB05 for Jingze's performance growth, thus lacking sustained...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Hansoh and Leads Biolabs bag global outlicensing deals. Chugai’s partner Lilly announced positive P3 result for orforglipron. Celltrion launched...

Tina Banerjee

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

The Sep rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

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