Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In a much awaited move, Pakistan cement manufacturers have unanimously decided to raise cement prices by Rs10/bag in North region, as per our channel checks. Further, our discussion with manufacturers suggest that further hike in prices cannot be ruled out in coming months thanks to robust local cement demand which is up 16-17% YoY in 8MFY18. Please see our note titled, ‘No Expansion in Punjab Without Court’s Approval’ dated January 24, 2018, where we mentioned that upward revision in cement…</li></ul>

In a much awaited move, Pakistan cement manufacturers have unanimously decided to raise cement prices by Rs10/bag in North region, as per our channel checks. Further, our discussion with manufacturers suggest that further hike in prices cannot be ruled out in coming months thanks to robust local cement demand which is up 16-17% YoY in 8MFY18. Please see our note titled, ‘No Expansion in Punjab Without Court’s Approval’ dated January 24, 2018, where we mentioned that upward revision in cement…

Flash Note: Pakistan Cements: Further Hike in Prices Expected

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class=""><li>The Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan in Nov 2017 took a suo moto notice based on media reports that the Katas Raj pond (situated in Kallar Kahar, Punjab) is drying out due to consumption of underground water by nearby cement factories. In this regard, SC has held multiple hearings (Case No. 25598-G/2017 - In the matter of drying out of the Shiri Katas Raj Temple), which is on going and to this end has served notices to Bestway Cement (BWCL) 1&amp;2, DG Khan Cement (DGKC) Chakwal line and Dandot cement…</li></ul>

The Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan in Nov 2017 took a suo moto notice based on media reports that the Katas Raj pond (situated in Kallar Kahar, Punjab) is drying out due to consumption of underground water by nearby cement factories. In this regard, SC has held multiple hearings (Case No. 25598-G/2017 - In the matter of drying out of the Shiri Katas Raj Temple), which is on going and to this end has served notices to Bestway Cement (BWCL) 1&amp;2, DG Khan Cement (DGKC) Chakwal line and Dandot cement…

Pakistan Cements: Cement Expansions in Punjab Hit Snag

MSCI semi annual index review is scheduled on Nov 13, 2017 where Pakistan’s weight in MSCI EM index is expected to be around 0.10% based on Oct 31, 2017 free float market capitalization of EM Index and 6 constituents of Pakistan market. This is lower than 0.14% weight initially set after reclassification of Pakistan market from Frontier Market to Emerging Markets (announced on May 15, 2017 and was effective from Jun 1, 2017). The semi-annual index review changes will be effective on Dec 1, 2017…

MSCI semi annual index review is scheduled on Nov 13, 2017 where Pakistan’s weight in MSCI EM index is expected to be around 0.10% based on Oct 31, 2017 free float market capitalization of EM Index and 6 constituents of Pakistan market. This is lower than 0.14% weight initially set after reclassification of Pakistan market from Frontier Market to Emerging Markets (announced on May 15, 2017 and was effective from Jun 1, 2017). The semi-annual index review changes will be effective on Dec 1, 2017…

Pakistan Strategy: MSCI Semi Annual Review, Pakistan Weight in MSCI EM Likely to Fall

Pakistan cement manufacturers posted profitability decline of 3% YoY (pretax profits down 15%) during 1QFY18 vs. double digit growth of 17% and 32% seen in 1QFY17 and 1QFY16, respectively. Our analysis is based on a sample of 15 listed cement producers (out of a total of 18) which represents 99.7% of total cement companies’ market capitalization.During 1QFY18, sector sales grew by 11% YoY, mainly supported by 21% growth in local dispatches (total volume up 15%).  Performance of local dispatches…

Pakistan cement manufacturers posted profitability decline of 3% YoY (pretax profits down 15%) during 1QFY18 vs. double digit growth of 17% and 32% seen in 1QFY17 and 1QFY16, respectively. Our analysis is based on a sample of 15 listed cement producers (out of a total of 18) which represents 99.7% of total cement companies’ market capitalization.During 1QFY18, sector sales grew by 11% YoY, mainly supported by 21% growth in local dispatches (total volume up 15%).  Performance of local dispatches…

Pakistan Cements: Sector Profits -3%, Pretax Profits -15% YoY in 1QFY18

Pakistan

Lucky Cement Limited manufactures and sells cement.  The Company's cement brands include Lucky Gold Brand, Lucky Brand, Lucky Star Brand. Lucky Cement's main plant site is located at the District Lucky Marwat in the North West Frontier province of Pakistan.

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Lucky Cement (LUCK PA)

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving...

Vermilion Research

Flash Note: Pakistan Cements: Further Hike in Prices Expected

In a much awaited move, Pakistan cement manufacturers have unanimously decided to raise cement prices by Rs10/bag in North region, as per our...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Cements: Cement Expansions in Punjab Hit Snag

The Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan in Nov 2017 took a suo moto notice based on media reports that the Katas Raj pond (situated in Kallar Kahar,...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Strategy: MSCI Semi Annual Review, Pakistan Weight in MSCI EM Likely to Fall

MSCI semi annual index review is scheduled on Nov 13, 2017 where Pakistan’s weight in MSCI EM index is expected to be around 0.10% based on Oct 31,...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Cements: Sector Profits -3%, Pretax Profits -15% YoY in 1QFY18

Pakistan cement manufacturers posted profitability decline of 3% YoY (pretax profits down 15%) during 1QFY18 vs. double digit growth of 17% and 32%...

Topline Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)