Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation<ul class="">
<li>Consumer electrical leader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9158" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1">Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN)</a> saw single digit revenue growth and sharp reduction in operating margins as (1) the channel destocked 40-50% of the 45-60 day inventory, (2) it was unable to take the requisite price hikes to offset increase in input cost.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13828" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1">Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN)</a> reported flat volume YoY after +4% volume growth in 4QFY17. It said rural channel was more impacted than urban resulting in decline in rural…</li>
</ul>

1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation
Consumer electrical leader Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN) saw single digit revenue growth and sharp reduction in operating margins as (1) the channel destocked 40-50% of the 45-60 day inventory, (2) it was unable to take the requisite price hikes to offset increase in input cost.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN) reported flat volume YoY after +4% volume growth in 4QFY17. It said rural channel was more impacted than urban resulting in decline in rural…


India: GST's Impact on 1QFY18 Corporate Performance

Senior investment analyst

Pallavi Deshpande

Equity Bottom-Up

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17583" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17583:1">Cholamandalam Invest &amp; Fin Co Ltd (CIFC IN)</a>"Chola", a finance company focused on vehicle financing and loans-against-property is the second largest non-banking finance company (NBFC) in the commercial vehicle (CV) financing space. Demonetization drives the long overdue transmission of lower rates to the economy and underpins Chola’s net interest margin (NIM) expansion that surged to 9.3% in 4Q17.  The robust growth expectations for vehicle finance and NIM expansion will support Chola’s net interest income (NII) growth and its share price has historically been positively correlated with its NII growth. Although the stress in the loans-against-property (LAP) book is negative, we believe loss given default will be limited given the strength of the underlying collateral. We expect Chola’s earnings to grow at 20% to 25% in the coming years, supporting long-term stable ROA of 2.5%.

Cholamandalam Invest &amp; Fin Co Ltd (CIFC IN)"Chola", a finance company focused on vehicle financing and loans-against-property is the second largest non-banking finance company (NBFC) in the commercial vehicle (CV) financing space. Demonetization drives the long overdue transmission of lower rates to the economy and underpins Chola’s net interest margin (NIM) expansion that surged to 9.3% in 4Q17.  The robust growth expectations for vehicle finance and NIM expansion will support Chola’s net interest income (NII) growth and its share price has historically been positively correlated with its NII growth. Although the stress in the loans-against-property (LAP) book is negative, we believe loss given default will be limited given the strength of the underlying collateral. We expect Chola’s earnings to grow at 20% to 25% in the coming years, supporting long-term stable ROA of 2.5%.

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited: Back to Normal as Migration to 90+DPD Is Over

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Ruling party BJP has won a landslide victory in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) thereby putting to rest any doubts over the adverse impact of demonetisation on the electoral prospects of the party. Performance in UP is impressive as the opposition had formed an alliance to fight Modi but still lost poorly.  Most political analysts have been caught on the wrong foot as they predicted a hung assembly while the results show that Modi wave seen during the General elections continues. We…

Ruling party BJP has won a landslide victory in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) thereby putting to rest any doubts over the adverse impact of demonetisation on the electoral prospects of the party. Performance in UP is impressive as the opposition had formed an alliance to fight Modi but still lost poorly.  Most political analysts have been caught on the wrong foot as they predicted a hung assembly while the results show that Modi wave seen during the General elections continues. We…

Landslide Win for Modi in UP Elections;Upper House No.s to Cross 100 Mark by 2018, a +ve for Reforms

India

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited is a finance company that provides finance to prospective buyers of Mahindra range of utility vehicles and tractors.  The Company extends finance through hire purchase/loan and lease modes.  Mahindra & Mahindra has a network of branches located across India.

Mahindra & Mahindra Fin Services Ltd. (MMFS IN)

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Mahindra & Mahindra Fin Services Ltd. (MMFS IN)

India: GST's Impact on 1QFY18 Corporate Performance

1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation Consumer electrical leader Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN) saw single digit revenue growth and sharp...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited: Back to Normal as Migration to 90+DPD Is Over

Cholamandalam Invest & Fin Co Ltd (CIFC IN)"Chola", a finance company focused on vehicle financing and loans-against-property is the second...

Pallavi Deshpande

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

Landslide Win for Modi in UP Elections;Upper House No.s to Cross 100 Mark by 2018, a +ve for Reforms

Ruling party BJP has won a landslide victory in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) thereby putting to rest any doubts over the adverse impact...

Asia Advisors

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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