Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US Group III 4cSt base oils price-premium to Group II light grades falls at end-July for first time in three months, before extending dip in August 2025.</li><li>Asia’s Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group II light grades starts trending lower from late-June 2025.</li><li>Europe Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group I and Group II light grades continues to edge higher after protracted slump since early-2023.</li></ul>

US Group III 4cSt base oils price-premium to Group II light grades falls at end-July for first time in three months, before extending dip in August 2025.Asia’s Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group II light grades starts trending lower from late-June 2025.Europe Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group I and Group II light grades continues to edge higher after protracted slump since early-2023.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 11 August

<ul><li>Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm in narrow range, even if down from highs in Q2 2025.</li><li>Firm premium sustains incentive for refiners to maintain high output of heavy grades even amid signs of rise in surplus supply.</li><li>FOB Asia Group II heavy-grade price discount to CFR UAE prices rises to highest in more than a year.</li></ul>

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm in narrow range, even if down from highs in Q2 2025.Firm premium sustains incentive for refiners to maintain high output of heavy grades even amid signs of rise in surplus supply.FOB Asia Group II heavy-grade price discount to CFR UAE prices rises to highest in more than a year.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 August

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to replenish stocks that were more balanced than expected at start of Q3 2025.</li><li>Blenders could be targeting additional supplies to cover seasonal rise in consumption in final weeks of Q3 2025.</li><li>Stocks could be more balanced than expected because of unusually strong rise in demand at end-Q2 2025.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to replenish stocks that were more balanced than expected at start of Q3 2025.Blenders could be targeting additional supplies to cover seasonal rise in consumption in final weeks of Q3 2025.Stocks could be more balanced than expected because of unusually strong rise in demand at end-Q2 2025.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 August

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025.</li><li>Demand could have already got steady underlying support in recent weeks because of tighter-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q3 2025.</li><li>Persistently tighter fundamentals could prompt buyers to maintain higher stocks until they are confident about any sustained improvement in supply.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025.Demand could have already got steady underlying support in recent weeks because of tighter-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q3 2025.Persistently tighter fundamentals could prompt buyers to maintain higher stocks until they are confident about any sustained improvement in supply.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

India

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited refines oil and produces petroleum and petrochemicals. The Company is a subsidiary of ONGC. Mangalore Refinery operates a refinery in Mangalore city that produces premium diesel and unleaded petrol of high octane.

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL IN)

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited

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Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL IN)

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 11 August

US Group III 4cSt base oils price-premium to Group II light grades falls at end-July for first time in three months, before extending dip in...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 August

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm in narrow range, even if down from highs in Q2 2025. Firm premium...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 August

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to replenish stocks that were more balanced than expected at start of Q3 2025. Blenders could...

Base Oil News

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

There could be 11 changes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% and round-trip trade is INR 17.6bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025. Demand...

Base Oil News

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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