External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ITC: ITC delivered another quarter with a beat in earnings</li><li>Net revenue and EBITDA clocked 3/22% YoY growth vs the expectation of 5/14%</li><li>Cigarette revenue growth was at 17% YoY (HSIE 14%), with volume growth at ~15% (6.5% three-year CAGR)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC: ITC delivered another quarter with a beat in earningsNet revenue and EBITDA clocked 3/22% YoY growth vs the expectation of 5/14%Cigarette revenue growth was at 17% YoY (HSIE 14%), with volume growth at ~15% (6.5% three-year CAGR)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, Tata Power, Marico, CDSL, Mahanagar Gas

<ul><li>Expect similar volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in Q2FY23)</li><li>Rural demand remained tepid while some green shoots were visible at the end of the quarter</li><li>Urban demand too was not different from that seen in Q2</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Expect similar volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in Q2FY23)Rural demand remained tepid while some green shoots were visible at the end of the quarterUrban demand too was not different from that seen in Q2Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Unchanged demand trend, some respite in margins

<ul><li>SRF: We retain our ADD rating on SRF, with a target price of INR 2,650 on the back of (1) continued healthy performance from speciality chemicals business; (2) strong balance sheet; and (3) deployment of capex for high-growth speciality chemicals business over the next 3-4 years to tap opportunities emerging from the agrochemical and pharma industries</li><li>EBITDA/APAT were 24/24% below our estimates, owing to a 7% fall in revenue, substantially higher-than-expected raw material cost, offset by lower-than-expected depreciation and higher-than-expected other income. Marico: Marico posted an in-line performance on both revenue and EBITDA margin</li><li>Consolidated revenue was up 3% YoY while domestic revenue/volume were up 1/3% YoY (three-year revenue/volume CAGRs at 11/7% vs HUL’s 10/3%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SRF: We retain our ADD rating on SRF, with a target price of INR 2,650 on the back of (1) continued healthy performance from speciality chemicals business; (2) strong balance sheet; and (3) deployment of capex for high-growth speciality chemicals business over the next 3-4 years to tap opportunities emerging from the agrochemical and pharma industriesEBITDA/APAT were 24/24% below our estimates, owing to a 7% fall in revenue, substantially higher-than-expected raw material cost, offset by lower-than-expected depreciation and higher-than-expected other income. Marico: Marico posted an in-line performance on both revenue and EBITDA marginConsolidated revenue was up 3% YoY while domestic revenue/volume were up 1/3% YoY (three-year revenue/volume CAGRs at 11/7% vs HUL’s 10/3%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: SRF, Marico, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp, City Union Bank

<ul><li>Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)</li><li>ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volume</li><li>Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volumeDemand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

<ul><li>We hosted a multi-sector channel check, wherein we hosted participants from auto, FMCG, durable, building materials, jewellery, cement and real estate</li><li>The meetings were represented by senior and experienced channel partners, CXOs of unlisted companies, and industry experts</li><li>Our primary objective was to check festive season demand along with overall consumption environment, particularly since industries have seen one of the toughest retail inflation environments.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hosted a multi-sector channel check, wherein we hosted participants from auto, FMCG, durable, building materials, jewellery, cement and real estateThe meetings were represented by senior and experienced channel partners, CXOs of unlisted companies, and industry expertsOur primary objective was to check festive season demand along with overall consumption environment, particularly since industries have seen one of the toughest retail inflation environments.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reality Check: Festive checks—positive trend

India

Marico Limited manufactures consumer products and services in the beauty and wellness space. The Company is known for its presence in the following categories: Coconut Oil, Hair Oils, Anti-lice Treatment, Premium Refined Edible Oils and Fabric Care. Marico Limited is present in the Skin Care Services segment through Kaya Skin Clinics.

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Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, Tata Power, Marico, CDSL, Mahanagar Gas

ITC: ITC delivered another quarter with a beat in earnings. Net revenue and EBITDA clocked 3/22% YoY growth vs the expectation of 5/14%

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Unchanged demand trend, some respite in margins

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: SRF, Marico, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp, City Union Bank

Consolidated revenue was up 3% YoY while domestic revenue/volume were up 1/3% YoY (three-year revenue/volume CAGRs at 11/7% vs HUL’s 10/3%)

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the...

HDFC Securities

Reality Check: Festive checks—positive trend

We hosted a multi-sector channel check, wherein we hosted participants from auto, FMCG, durable, building materials, jewellery, cement and real estate

HDFC Securities

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