Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given political turmoil and the existential risk posed by Brexit but it seems that investors always anticipated that Parliament would veto the most damaging "No-deal" option. In this regard investors have been more far-sighted than right-wing Conservative politicians.So where to now for FTSE100 ? The index is back to the level of early 18Q4 which seems appropriate given the anticipated economic downturn recession failed to materialise. The old adage "Sell in May and go away" comes to mind. As strategy this has worked quite well. Over the 25 years the market has been lower at the at the end of the second quarter than at the beginning 42%  of the time, producing an average return of minus 0.4%.In terms of individual companies, Tesco (which we had in the long portfolio) is amongst the top ten performers year-to-date, and Centrica (in the short portfolio) is the second worst.

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given political turmoil and the existential risk posed by Brexit but it seems that investors always anticipated that Parliament would veto the most damaging "No-deal" option. In this regard investors have been more far-sighted than right-wing Conservative politicians.So where to now for FTSE100 ? The index is back to the level of early 18Q4 which seems appropriate given the anticipated economic downturn recession failed to materialise. The old adage "Sell in May and go away" comes to mind. As strategy this has worked quite well. Over the 25 years the market has been lower at the at the end of the second quarter than at the beginning 42%  of the time, producing an average return of minus 0.4%.In terms of individual companies, Tesco (which we had in the long portfolio) is amongst the top ten performers year-to-date, and Centrica (in the short portfolio) is the second worst.

Equity Bottom-Up

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  
<h2>Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?</h2>
Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients
<h2>Why is it in the Short portfolio ?</h2>
Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. 
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<div class="content-caption">S&amp;P Capital IQ</div>

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  
Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?
Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients
Why is it in the Short portfolio ?
Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. 

S&amp;P Capital IQ

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium
 In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period
Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year
On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain
Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences 
We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium
 In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period
Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year
On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain
Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences 
We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes 

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Crystal International / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25979:1">Crystal International Group (2232 HK)</a> is raising about US$525m in its upcoming IPO. Proceeds will be mainly used to expand its current manufacturing capacity, upstream vertical expansion, and paying down debt that was used to fund a recent acquisition.In this insight, we will briefly look at the apparel manufacturing industry, the company's operating margins compared to Hong Kong-listed peers, and its relative valuation. As usual, we will be running the deal through our ECM framework.

Crystal International Group (2232 HK) is raising about US$525m in its upcoming IPO. Proceeds will be mainly used to expand its current manufacturing capacity, upstream vertical expansion, and paying down debt that was used to fund a recent acquisition.In this insight, we will briefly look at the apparel manufacturing industry, the company's operating margins compared to Hong Kong-listed peers, and its relative valuation. As usual, we will be running the deal through our ECM framework.

Crystal Grp IPO Review - Good Underlying Growth Bolstered by New Margin-Accretive Sportswear Segment

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK inflation in May was about 0.2pp stronger than expected, as the trend higher continued, taking the CPI and RPI rates to 2.9% and 3.7% respectively. Fuel and airfares weighed as expected, but surprises were unusually skewed to the upside.</li><li>Recreation prices were the biggest source of surprise. My conservative assumption that its weakness in April was not just seasonal proved incorrect. In addition to the ripple effect of a later Easter, the warm weather may have raised prices.</li><li>Clothing was surprisingly strong again. Inflation in this sector continues to run ahead of pipeline pressures. Warm weather might be reducing the breadth of discounts, thereby raising average prices, although consumers are still chasing deals. Furniture price strength looks like a clearer pass-through story.</li><li>Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has increased by about 0.1pp to 3.1%. Before achieving that, petrol price base effects in June still look set to trigger a temporary inflation dip.</li></ul>

UK inflation in May was about 0.2pp stronger than expected, as the trend higher continued, taking the CPI and RPI rates to 2.9% and 3.7% respectively. Fuel and airfares weighed as expected, but surprises were unusually skewed to the upside.Recreation prices were the biggest source of surprise. My conservative assumption that its weakness in April was not just seasonal proved incorrect. In addition to the ripple effect of a later Easter, the warm weather may have raised prices.Clothing was surprisingly strong again. Inflation in this sector continues to run ahead of pipeline pressures. Warm weather might be reducing the breadth of discounts, thereby raising average prices, although consumers are still chasing deals. Furniture price strength looks like a clearer pass-through story.Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has increased by about 0.1pp to 3.1%. Before achieving that, petrol price base effects in June still look set to trigger a temporary inflation dip.

United Kingdom

Marks & Spencer Group PLC is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail of clothing, food and home products.

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Marks & Spencer (MKS LN)

FTSE 100 Long/Short: No 2 No Deal

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given...

Boost Research

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket. A tough market...

Boost Research

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium In contrast with the lackluster...

Boost Research

Crystal Grp IPO Review - Good Underlying Growth Bolstered by New Margin-Accretive Sportswear Segment

Crystal International Group (2232 HK) is raising about US$525m in its upcoming IPO. Proceeds will be mainly used to expand its current...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

UK Inflation: Stretched Trend

UK inflation in May was about 0.2pp stronger than expected, as the trend higher continued, taking the CPI and RPI rates to 2.9% and 3.7%...

Phil Rush

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