Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were the biggest source of the surge, but not the surprise.</li><li>Vehicle excise duty reforms added 8bp in a price level shock. Clothing was the largest sectoral surprise in my forecast, but with discount shares small, payback looks likely. Probable positive payback in games prices in May provides an offset.</li><li>A cap on prepayment energy tariffs appears to be binding inflation in utilities. Cuts to social housing rents seem to be having an especially long-lasting effect too, with this effect knocking 7bp off annual inflation for another 35 months. </li><li>Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has fallen by about 0.2pp over the past month to 3.0%. RPI inflation is also influenced by all these shocks, plus weak house prices, which frontload some of that weakness from my forecast.</li></ul>

UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were the biggest source of the surge, but not the surprise.Vehicle excise duty reforms added 8bp in a price level shock. Clothing was the largest sectoral surprise in my forecast, but with discount shares small, payback looks likely. Probable positive payback in games prices in May provides an offset.A cap on prepayment energy tariffs appears to be binding inflation in utilities. Cuts to social housing rents seem to be having an especially long-lasting effect too, with this effect knocking 7bp off annual inflation for another 35 months. Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has fallen by about 0.2pp over the past month to 3.0%. RPI inflation is also influenced by all these shocks, plus weak house prices, which frontload some of that weakness from my forecast.

UK Inflation: Resurgent Toward a Lower Peak

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. <blockquote>But first, a note of thanks to the SK community</blockquote>Besides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!<h2>Table showing IPO deals covered</h2><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>IPO</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. But first, a note of thanks to the SK communityBesides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!Table showing IPO deals covered

IPO

…

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Equity Bottom-Up

British American Tobacco / Equity Bottom-Up

Despite recent whispers of an impasse in negotiations (revolving around the valuation of Reynolds’ next generation product portfolio), in a joint statement this morning Reynolds American and British American Tobacco confirmed that they had agreed the terms of a merger in which the UK-based company will acquire the remaining 57.8% of RAI it did not already own for some USD49.4bn. Reynolds shareholders will retain almost a fifth of the new entity, the world’s largest public tobacco company (by valuation, if not by volume). This deal heralds the final act in industry consolidation in combustible cigarettes, creates the first truly global next generation product operation and brings to a definitive close the US market’s litigation-induced isolation from the global landscape.

Despite recent whispers of an impasse in negotiations (revolving around the valuation of Reynolds’ next generation product portfolio), in a joint statement this morning Reynolds American and British American Tobacco confirmed that they had agreed the terms of a merger in which the UK-based company will acquire the remaining 57.8% of RAI it did not already own for some USD49.4bn. Reynolds shareholders will retain almost a fifth of the new entity, the world’s largest public tobacco company (by valuation, if not by volume). This deal heralds the final act in industry consolidation in combustible cigarettes, creates the first truly global next generation product operation and brings to a definitive close the US market’s litigation-induced isolation from the global landscape.

Consequence of BAT's Full Acquisition of Reynolds Can Scarcely Be Overstated

Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

Marks &amp; Spencer is a major UK retailer of clothing and premium food. The stock is technically oversold and trading at low valuations, historically and in absolute terms.Recommendation date: 15-Jul-2016Recommended size: 2% of AUM

Marks &amp; Spencer is a major UK retailer of clothing and premium food. The stock is technically oversold and trading at low valuations, historically and in absolute terms.Recommendation date: 15-Jul-2016Recommended size: 2% of AUM 

Long MKS LN (Marks & Spencer Group) Stock at GBp325.30

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Last week the immediate shock from the Brexit eased considerably. It has become clear that all the Brexit vote really did was guarantee a prolonged period of uncertainty. It has also become clear that it will take months to gauge the impact that this prolonged period of uncertainty will have on both the Eurozone and global economy.

Last week the immediate shock from the Brexit eased considerably. It has become clear that all the Brexit vote really did was guarantee a prolonged period of uncertainty. It has also become clear that it will take months to gauge the impact that this prolonged period of uncertainty will have on both the Eurozone and global economy.

What Investors Should Be Asking About A Brexit

United Kingdom

Marks & Spencer Group PLC is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail of clothing, food and home products.

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Marks & Spencer (MKS LN)

UK Inflation: Resurgent Toward a Lower Peak

UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were...

Phil Rush

A Summary of Stock Calls and Actions

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that...

Valerie Law, CFA

Consequence of BAT's Full Acquisition of Reynolds Can Scarcely Be Overstated

Despite recent whispers of an impasse in negotiations (revolving around the valuation of Reynolds’ next generation product portfolio), in a joint...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Long MKS LN (Marks & Spencer Group) Stock at GBp325.30

Marks & Spencer is a major UK retailer of clothing and premium food. The stock is technically oversold and trading at low valuations,...

Asymmetric Payoffs

What Investors Should Be Asking About A Brexit

Last week the immediate shock from the Brexit eased considerably. It has become clear that all the Brexit vote really did was guarantee a prolonged...

David Riedel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)