FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners</li><li>Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levels</li><li>Fed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentiment</li><li>Central bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria</li></ul>

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver minersSome goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levelsFed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentimentCentral bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015), and I saw also @Hao Wang outlined a few similar ideas.  In this note I put a little more meat on the bones of the December note. In sum, the blow-ups we saw starting to develop in 2015 should continue in 2016. But given the market’s forward looking powers we should continue examining and accumulating as we did in 4Q15. If we timed the pain in commodities according to tax selling panics during 4Q15, we came out ahead.  New developments in places like Saudi may add more fuel to volatility. But we are looking at a multi-year story with many twists and turns. No easy way out. But a landscape abounding with opportunity.Topics from meetings<ul><li>Hong Kong and malaise of Civil Service…</li><li>Bank revenues from deals, ECM and role of research…</li><li>Space X and other cool updates</li><li>Three scenarios 2016</li><li>A last word on faulty data</li></ul>Long note with core views and investment ideas up front.

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015), and I saw also @Hao Wang outlined a few similar ideas.  In this note I put a little more meat on the bones of the December note. In sum, the blow-ups we saw starting to develop in 2015 should continue in 2016. But given the market’s forward looking powers we should continue examining and accumulating as we did in 4Q15. If we timed the pain in commodities according to tax selling panics during 4Q15, we came out ahead.  New developments in places like Saudi may add more fuel to volatility. But we are looking at a multi-year story with many twists and turns. No easy way out. But a landscape abounding with opportunity.Topics from meetingsHong Kong and malaise of Civil Service…Bank revenues from deals, ECM and role of research…Space X and other cool updatesThree scenarios 2016A last word on faulty dataLong note with core views and investment ideas up front.

2016 Names Not Trades and a Tough Energy Environment (And Other Recent Visits)

Hao Wang, CFA

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be aggressive in Q1 but defensive thereafter). The basis are higher commodities prices led by copper, crude and some bulk, and relatively weaker USD. <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/820/original/Fig6.png?1451718588" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4820"><figcaption class="figcaption">Top five macro trades in 2016Q1</figcaption></figure>In the above trade recommendations, you also have levels of profit target and stop loss. They are ranked by the ratio of reward/risk. Going forward I will keep updating levels…

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be aggressive in Q1 but defensive thereafter). The basis are higher commodities prices led by copper, crude and some bulk, and relatively weaker USD. Top five macro trades in 2016Q1In the above trade recommendations, you also have levels of profit target and stop loss. They are ranked by the ratio of reward/risk. Going forward I will keep updating levels…

This is a quick note on macro views in 2016. The analysis is largely based on cycles of industrial production, inventory levels, real estate investment, monetary policies and fiscal policies.To establish a view on commodities, equity, fixed income or other asset classes, we need to have a solid view on two biggest swing factors: US dollar and China's economy. My views are: slightly weaker dollar in first half 2016 followed by a much stronger dollar in 2nd half; China's economy may see short term…

This is a quick note on macro views in 2016. The analysis is largely based on cycles of industrial production, inventory levels, real estate investment, monetary policies and fiscal policies.To establish a view on commodities, equity, fixed income or other asset classes, we need to have a solid view on two biggest swing factors: US dollar and China's economy. My views are: slightly weaker dollar in first half 2016 followed by a much stronger dollar in 2nd half; China's economy may see short term…

Be Aggressive in Q1 2016 and Be Defensive Through Rest of 2016

United States

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. produces aggregates for the construction industry, including highways, infrastructure, commercial, and residential. The Company also manufactures and markets magnesia-based products, including heat-resistant refractory products for the steel industry, chemical products for industrial and environmental uses, and dolomitic lime.

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Martin Marietta Materials (MLM US)

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping...

Greg Gibbs

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just...

Kay Van-Petersen

2016 Names Not Trades and a Tough Energy Environment (And Other Recent Visits)

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015),...

Charles De Trenck

Top 5 Macro Trades in 2016Q1

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be...

Hao Wang, CFA

Be Aggressive in Q1 2016 and Be Defensive Through Rest of 2016

This is a quick note on macro views in 2016. The analysis is largely based on cycles of industrial production, inventory levels, real estate...

Hao Wang, CFA

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