IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Medlive Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a> is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.</p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$24.10-27.20 per share, Medlive will have a market cap of HK$16,633.2-18,772.8 ($2.1-2.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$3,770.8 million ($486 million). </p></div><div><p>Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $220 million of the offer shares (42.93% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors include Fidelity Management &amp; Research, FIL Investment Management, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, GIC, Matthews Funds, Qiming Venture Partners and OrbiMed Funds.</p></div><div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-initiation-what-s-up-doc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53683" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?</a>, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. </p>
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<p>Arguably, the closest peer is Doximity (DOCS US), which listed on 24 June 2021. Doximity had a stonking debut with its shares trading currently 1.2x its IPO price, suggesting strong investor sentiment on the niche physician "social-networking" market monetised primarily through advertising.</p>
<p>Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$31.80 per share, which is 17% above the high-point of the IPO price range. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.</p>
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Medlive Technology (2192 HK) is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$24.10-27.20 per share, Medlive will have a market cap of HK$16,633.2-18,772.8 ($2.1-2.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$3,770.8 million ($486 million). Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $220 million of the offer shares (42.93% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors include Fidelity Management &amp; Research, FIL Investment Management, Tencent (700 HK), GIC, Matthews Funds, Qiming Venture Partners and OrbiMed Funds.
In Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. 

Arguably, the closest peer is Doximity (DOCS US), which listed on 24 June 2021. Doximity had a stonking debut with its shares trading currently 1.2x its IPO price, suggesting strong investor sentiment on the niche physician "social-networking" market monetised primarily through advertising.
Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$31.80 per share, which is 17% above the high-point of the IPO price range. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.



Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a>  is the largest online professional physician platform in China based on registered physician users in 2020 (Source: Frost &amp; Sullivan). Medlive’s platform allows its participants that include physicians, pharmaceutical and medical device companies and patients to connect and deliver the most relevant and valuable information efficiently to each group of participants.</p><p>Medlive has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and plans to raise net proceeds of about HK$3.8bn (US$486m) at the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$24.1-27.2 per share. The company is backed by the Japanese healthcare and medical-related services platform M3.</p><p>In our previous insight on the company’s IPO, we discussed Medlive’s business model, its segments, revenues and outlook. Refer the extract below from our previous insight:</p><p><em>“Having analysed Medlive’s business model and revenues, we remain positive on the company’s ability to grow its top line. Medlive offers a wide range of healthcare services to different stakeholders including pharmaceutical companies, healthcare companies, physicians, patients and hospitals. The company’s monetisation strategy has worked favour of the company as evident by the growth in the company’s revenues. Medlive is well positioned to benefit from growing demand for digital healthcare services in China. Moreover, Covid-19 has further accelerated this demand and also has reshaped how healthcare is delivered across the world”</em></p><p>In this insight, we examine the company’s margins and plans to discuss Medlive’s valuation in a follow-up insight.</p>

Medlive Technology (2192 HK)  is the largest online professional physician platform in China based on registered physician users in 2020 (Source: Frost &amp; Sullivan). Medlive’s platform allows its participants that include physicians, pharmaceutical and medical device companies and patients to connect and deliver the most relevant and valuable information efficiently to each group of participants.Medlive has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and plans to raise net proceeds of about HK$3.8bn (US$486m) at the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$24.1-27.2 per share. The company is backed by the Japanese healthcare and medical-related services platform M3.In our previous insight on the company’s IPO, we discussed Medlive’s business model, its segments, revenues and outlook. Refer the extract below from our previous insight:“Having analysed Medlive’s business model and revenues, we remain positive on the company’s ability to grow its top line. Medlive offers a wide range of healthcare services to different stakeholders including pharmaceutical companies, healthcare companies, physicians, patients and hospitals. The company’s monetisation strategy has worked favour of the company as evident by the growth in the company’s revenues. Medlive is well positioned to benefit from growing demand for digital healthcare services in China. Moreover, Covid-19 has further accelerated this demand and also has reshaped how healthcare is delivered across the world”In this insight, we examine the company’s margins and plans to discuss Medlive’s valuation in a follow-up insight.

Medlive Tech IPO (Part II): Further Room for Margin Expansion with Expanding Scale

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p>Medlive is the largest medical content platform for physicians in China. The company launched book building to raise up to USD 543m via a Hong Kong listing.</p><p>In our previous note, we discuss that the company has built a great user base of licensed physicians in China, which is rare among internet healthcare companies. Having said that, the monetization from its user base is low. While the near term revenue growth will still come from healthcare marketing services, the company is expanding into the digital chronic disease management segment which is still an underpenetrated market but it is in an infant stage of development without much of a track record. The company has robust financials but the size is small compared to other internet healthcare players. The company's management team is just OK. Given that it is profitable and the main shareholder M3 is listed, there weren't many rounds of capital raising and hence it lacks pre-IPO investors. </p><p>In this note, we provide an update for the book building. We think there's valuation upside from both existing businesses and new business.</p>

Medlive is the largest medical content platform for physicians in China. The company launched book building to raise up to USD 543m via a Hong Kong listing.In our previous note, we discuss that the company has built a great user base of licensed physicians in China, which is rare among internet healthcare companies. Having said that, the monetization from its user base is low. While the near term revenue growth will still come from healthcare marketing services, the company is expanding into the digital chronic disease management segment which is still an underpenetrated market but it is in an infant stage of development without much of a track record. The company has robust financials but the size is small compared to other internet healthcare players. The company's management team is just OK. Given that it is profitable and the main shareholder M3 is listed, there weren't many rounds of capital raising and hence it lacks pre-IPO investors. In this note, we provide an update for the book building. We think there's valuation upside from both existing businesses and new business.

Medlive (医脉通) IPO: Candidate for Multi-Bagger

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (MLT HK)</a>  is the largest online professional physician platform in China based on registered physician users in 2020 (Source: Frost &amp; Sullivan). The company generates revenues primarily through offering digital marketing services to pharmaceuticals and healthcare companies, research and education/learning content to physicians and internet hospital services to patients.</p><p>Medlive has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and plans to raise proceeds of about US$500m. The company is backed by the Japanese healthcare and medical-related services platform M3.</p><p>Medlive is well positioned to benefit from growing demand for digital healthcare marketing and digital healthcare education and information services in China driven by increased health awareness, technological advancements, prevalence of chronic conditions and favourable government policies.</p><p>In this insight, we discuss in detail Medlive’s business model, segments, industry prospects and the company’s top line growth. In a follow-up insight, we will be discussing the company’s margins.</p>

Medlive Technology (MLT HK)  is the largest online professional physician platform in China based on registered physician users in 2020 (Source: Frost &amp; Sullivan). The company generates revenues primarily through offering digital marketing services to pharmaceuticals and healthcare companies, research and education/learning content to physicians and internet hospital services to patients.Medlive has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and plans to raise proceeds of about US$500m. The company is backed by the Japanese healthcare and medical-related services platform M3.Medlive is well positioned to benefit from growing demand for digital healthcare marketing and digital healthcare education and information services in China driven by increased health awareness, technological advancements, prevalence of chronic conditions and favourable government policies.In this insight, we discuss in detail Medlive’s business model, segments, industry prospects and the company’s top line growth. In a follow-up insight, we will be discussing the company’s margins.

Medlive Tech IPO (Part I): Diversified Services and a Major Beneficiary of Digital Healthcare Market

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (MLT HK)</a> is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $500 million, according to press reports.</p><p>Medlive is a JV between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes. Medlive has been a consolidated subsidiary of M3, with M3 holding the right to nominate the majority of Medlive directors, but M3 will forego this right upon Medlive's listing. Also, upon listing, M3 will be deconsolidated (equity-method affiliate) from M3 financials. </p><p>Digital healthcare marketing service providers focus on various aspects of the digital healthcare marketing market and have competitive advantages in different areas. For example, internet hospitals and pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>, have large consumer user bases for advertising and selling non-prescription drugs. Medlive believes that it can compete with these players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we believe that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. </p></div><p><strong><em>For readers interested in IPOs of upcoming healthtech companies, we highlight:</em></strong> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linkdoc-technology-ipo-initiation-building-with-big-data" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53384" rel="noopener">LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/we-doctor-ipo-initiation-patient-revolution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50009" rel="noopener">We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution</a> </p>

Medlive Technology (MLT HK) is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $500 million, according to press reports.Medlive is a JV between M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes. Medlive has been a consolidated subsidiary of M3, with M3 holding the right to nominate the majority of Medlive directors, but M3 will forego this right upon Medlive's listing. Also, upon listing, M3 will be deconsolidated (equity-method affiliate) from M3 financials. Digital healthcare marketing service providers focus on various aspects of the digital healthcare marketing market and have competitive advantages in different areas. For example, internet hospitals and pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms, such as Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and JD Health (6618 HK), have large consumer user bases for advertising and selling non-prescription drugs. Medlive believes that it can compete with these players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we believe that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. For readers interested in IPOs of upcoming healthtech companies, we highlight: LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution 

Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?

Hong Kong

Medlive Technology Co., Ltd. operates as an online professional physician platform. The Company provides medical information, clinical guidelines, medical conferences, case readings, diagnosis and treatment knowledge base, and other medical information. Medlive Technology offers services in China.

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Medlive Technology (2192 HK)

Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$31.80 per share. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive price range and strong blue-chip...

Arun George

Medlive Tech IPO (Part II): Further Room for Margin Expansion with Expanding Scale

Medlive already generates healthy margins and we expect the company's margins to continue to expand with increase in the number of healthcare...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Medlive (医脉通) IPO: Candidate for Multi-Bagger

We look at the deal term of Medlive IPO and provide an update for the book building. We think there's substantial upside from both its existing...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Medlive Tech IPO (Part I): Diversified Services and a Major Beneficiary of Digital Healthcare Market

Medlive is well positioned to benefit from the growing demand for digital healthcare services in China.Covid-19 has further accelerated this demand...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?

Medlive is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $500 million, according to press reports. The fundamentals are strong due to fast-paced...

Arun George

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