External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Foreign funds outflow to China may continue with YTD flow into JCI still stood at net inflow of US$3,135mn as of October 4, 2024.</li><li>Potential impact from China stimulus on commodities demand remains to be seen, but fund flow from hedge funds still has room to increase.</li><li>JCI consensus est. saw a cut to 4.5%, though it still stands out among peers; we believe better entry will emerge when outflow subsides.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Foreign funds outflow to China may continue with YTD flow into JCI still stood at net inflow of US$3,135mn as of October 4, 2024.Potential impact from China stimulus on commodities demand remains to be seen, but fund flow from hedge funds still has room to increase.JCI consensus est. saw a cut to 4.5%, though it still stands out among peers; we believe better entry will emerge when outflow subsides.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Headwind from Outflows May Persist

Equity Bottom-Up

Merdeka Battery Materials / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MBMA’s 2Q24 earnings was a robust US$16.7mn, but we see a weaker 3Q24 ahead.</li><li>AIM project will now contribute in FY25 instead, due to delays in commissioning. </li><li>We lowered our FY24-26F forecasts by -21%/+2%/-12% and trimmed our TP to Rp650; reiterate Buy rating on upsides from growth projects</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MBMA’s 2Q24 earnings was a robust US$16.7mn, but we see a weaker 3Q24 ahead.AIM project will now contribute in FY25 instead, due to delays in commissioning. We lowered our FY24-26F forecasts by -21%/+2%/-12% and trimmed our TP to Rp650; reiterate Buy rating on upsides from growth projectsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Merdeka Battery Materials - Solid 2Q24 Earnings, but 1H24 Still a Miss

<ul><li>China’s latest stimulus offers hope for improving productivity, but we see challenges as property prices have continued to fall in recent months.</li><li>NPI prices could face ST weakness from increased domestic output but may stand to benefit the most if China’s stimulus works.</li><li>We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as top picks due to stronger earnings visibility.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s latest stimulus offers hope for improving productivity, but we see challenges as property prices have continued to fall in recent months.NPI prices could face ST weakness from increased domestic output but may stand to benefit the most if China’s stimulus works.We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as top picks due to stronger earnings visibility.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Hope from China’s Latest Stimulus, Albeit More Is Needed (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>Tin price strengthened to US$32k/t in Aug24, as inventory (SHFE and LME) and Indonesian exports fell -23% mom.</li><li>Nickel ore supply remained tight, which boosted the NPI price in Aug24. However, the LME price fell on weaker fundamentals.</li><li>We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to stronger earnings visibility.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tin price strengthened to US$32k/t in Aug24, as inventory (SHFE and LME) and Indonesian exports fell -23% mom.Nickel ore supply remained tight, which boosted the NPI price in Aug24. However, the LME price fell on weaker fundamentals.We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to stronger earnings visibility.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Aug24 Metal Sector Update: Supports for Tin Price

<ul><li>Tin price weakened in Jul24 despite a tight supply in China and declining inventory levels globally.</li><li>Nickel prices stabilized in Jul24. Yet, we remain cautious of further decline from weak seasonal demand.</li><li>We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their better earnings visibility</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tin price weakened in Jul24 despite a tight supply in China and declining inventory levels globally.Nickel prices stabilized in Jul24. Yet, we remain cautious of further decline from weak seasonal demand.We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their better earnings visibilityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Jul24 Update: Weaker Nickel and Tin Price, Despite Tight Ore Supply (OVERWEIGHT)

Indonesia

PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. is an integrated strategic minerals and EV battery materials company. The Company focuses on discovering nickel resources and producing advanced products to continuously improve clean energy supply. Merdeka Battery Materials serves customers in Indonesia.

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Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ)

Equity Strategy: Headwind from Outflows May Persist

JCI consensus est. saw a cut to 4.5%, though it still stands out among peers; we believe better entry will emerge when outflow subsides.

BRI Danareksa Research

Merdeka Battery Materials - Solid 2Q24 Earnings, but 1H24 Still a Miss

MBMA’s 2Q24 earnings was a robust US$16.7mn, but we see a weaker 3Q24 ahead. AIM project will now contribute in FY25 instead, due to delays in...

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Hope from China’s Latest Stimulus, Albeit More Is Needed (OVERWEIGHT)

China’s latest stimulus offers hope for improving productivity, but we see challenges as property prices have continued to fall in recent months.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Aug24 Metal Sector Update: Supports for Tin Price

Tin price strengthened to US$32k/t in Aug24, as inventory (SHFE and LME) and Indonesian exports fell -23% mom. Nickel ore supply remained tight,...

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Jul24 Update: Weaker Nickel and Tin Price, Despite Tight Ore Supply (OVERWEIGHT)

Tin price weakened in Jul24 despite a tight supply in China and declining inventory levels globally. Nickel prices stabilized in Jul24.

BRI Danareksa Research

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