Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Bank deposits hit an all-time high of ¥854.608 trillion (US$7.84 trillion) on 31 March 2021, according to the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA), rising +2.0% MoM and a remarkable +9.7% YoY.  According to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), average deposit balances in March 2021 were ¥1,067.259 trillion (US$9.79 trillion); this was also an all-time high level.</p><p>For Japanese bankers, however, such impressive statistics are anything but good news.  Already awash in surplus cash, adding another ¥6.0 trillion (US$55.15 billion) to the banks’ collective coffers in a single month is of almost no value to them whatsoever. The metaphorical equivalent of such an event would be something like turning a fire hose onto an already-flooded river.  It just makes an already bad situation far worse.  Major banks’ loan to deposit (LDR) ratios have now fallen to historic lows of 49%, underlining the fact that customer funds continue to flow into Japanese banks far faster than they are able to process that inflow and reinvest the proceeds as loans to help support an economic recovery. Banks simply do not need those mountains of money that pile higher and higher as each month passes.</p><p>January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  Trees do not grow to Heaven, however, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks.  Having passed the ‘marker point’ for the end of perennial bank rallies, namely 15 March (“The Ides of March”), the sector has weakened noticeably over the last month (after peaking on 19 March 2021 at 162.08) with the mega-banks falling close to 10% while other major banks and large regional banks have seen their share prices falling by 15% or more.</p><p>“<em>Caveat Emptor!”</em> (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/203/578/original/image_7378929621619743178079.png?1619743180" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="203578"></figure>

Bank deposits hit an all-time high of ¥854.608 trillion (US$7.84 trillion) on 31 March 2021, according to the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA), rising +2.0% MoM and a remarkable +9.7% YoY.  According to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), average deposit balances in March 2021 were ¥1,067.259 trillion (US$9.79 trillion); this was also an all-time high level.For Japanese bankers, however, such impressive statistics are anything but good news.  Already awash in surplus cash, adding another ¥6.0 trillion (US$55.15 billion) to the banks’ collective coffers in a single month is of almost no value to them whatsoever. The metaphorical equivalent of such an event would be something like turning a fire hose onto an already-flooded river.  It just makes an already bad situation far worse.  Major banks’ loan to deposit (LDR) ratios have now fallen to historic lows of 49%, underlining the fact that customer funds continue to flow into Japanese banks far faster than they are able to process that inflow and reinvest the proceeds as loans to help support an economic recovery. Banks simply do not need those mountains of money that pile higher and higher as each month passes.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  Trees do not grow to Heaven, however, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks.  Having passed the ‘marker point’ for the end of perennial bank rallies, namely 15 March (“The Ides of March”), the sector has weakened noticeably over the last month (after peaking on 19 March 2021 at 162.08) with the mega-banks falling close to 10% while other major banks and large regional banks have seen their share prices falling by 15% or more.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Bank Deposits:  Mountain High, Value Low

<p>An old investment industry joke has it that long-term investments in equities are usually short-term investments that went wrong.  In the Japanese banking industry, short-term loans are euphemistically called “working capital finance” but, in many instances, act as a substitute for equity capital by being rolled-over or renewed every three to six months on an indefinite basis, as long as the interest continues to be paid on time.  Unlike Western banking practice, there is little to no effort ever made by Japanese banks to have these ‘short-term‘ loans cleaned-up and repaid, thereby minimizing the strain on corporate cash-flow over the longer-term while maximizing the banks’ interest income.</p><p>The arrival of the global COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 created heavy demand for bank finance as companies rushed to secure sufficient cash and lines of credit.  The purpose of this ‘dash for cash’ was to ensure corporate survival and to tide them over what was hoped would be a short period of financial uncertainty. This additional lending was intended to be short-term in nature.  As Japan faces yet another wave of the coronavirus, with emergency declarations in several of her principal cities and more lockdowns just as the postponed 2020 Olympics is scheduled to begin, it is becoming increasingly apparent that some borrowers need not just cash but capital to survive.</p><p>Some banks are reportedly now considering whether to convert some of these ‘short-term’ emergency loans into long-term subordinated loans, thereby marginally improving the interest rate on the loan.  The clear advantage for the borrower would be the removal of any financial pressure to repay the loan any time soon.  For the banks, there might be other less obvious advantages than simply a better interest rate, including an opportunity to maintain potentially future non-performing loans in ongoing performing-loan status, which would obviate the need to set aside additional loan-loss provisions and preserve the banks’ own precious capital.</p><p>Why call a spade a spade when it could also be referred to as a shovel?</p><p>January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  Trees do not grow to Heaven, however, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks, as has once again been proven.  Having passed the ‘marker point’ for the end of perennial bank rallies, namely 15 March (“The Ides of March”), the sector has weakened noticeably over the last month (after peaking on 19 March 2021 at 162.08) with the mega-banks falling close to 10% while other major banks and large regional banks have seen their share prices falling by 15% or more.</p><p>“<em>Caveat Emptor!”</em> (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/202/916/original/JBanks-2021-0428-TPNBNK+in+2021.jpg?1619500060" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="202916"></figure></section>

An old investment industry joke has it that long-term investments in equities are usually short-term investments that went wrong.  In the Japanese banking industry, short-term loans are euphemistically called “working capital finance” but, in many instances, act as a substitute for equity capital by being rolled-over or renewed every three to six months on an indefinite basis, as long as the interest continues to be paid on time.  Unlike Western banking practice, there is little to no effort ever made by Japanese banks to have these ‘short-term‘ loans cleaned-up and repaid, thereby minimizing the strain on corporate cash-flow over the longer-term while maximizing the banks’ interest income.The arrival of the global COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 created heavy demand for bank finance as companies rushed to secure sufficient cash and lines of credit.  The purpose of this ‘dash for cash’ was to ensure corporate survival and to tide them over what was hoped would be a short period of financial uncertainty. This additional lending was intended to be short-term in nature.  As Japan faces yet another wave of the coronavirus, with emergency declarations in several of her principal cities and more lockdowns just as the postponed 2020 Olympics is scheduled to begin, it is becoming increasingly apparent that some borrowers need not just cash but capital to survive.Some banks are reportedly now considering whether to convert some of these ‘short-term’ emergency loans into long-term subordinated loans, thereby marginally improving the interest rate on the loan.  The clear advantage for the borrower would be the removal of any financial pressure to repay the loan any time soon.  For the banks, there might be other less obvious advantages than simply a better interest rate, including an opportunity to maintain potentially future non-performing loans in ongoing performing-loan status, which would obviate the need to set aside additional loan-loss provisions and preserve the banks’ own precious capital.Why call a spade a spade when it could also be referred to as a shovel?January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  Trees do not grow to Heaven, however, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks, as has once again been proven.  Having passed the ‘marker point’ for the end of perennial bank rallies, namely 15 March (“The Ides of March”), the sector has weakened noticeably over the last month (after peaking on 19 March 2021 at 162.08) with the mega-banks falling close to 10% while other major banks and large regional banks have seen their share prices falling by 15% or more.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Banks:  When Spades Become Shovels

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<p>Japan’s largest banks have seen steady and strong declines of credit costs during the past few quarters. Their earnings guidance upgrades do not seem to take this into account. Where credit costs remain low like the December 2020 quarter, FY22 earnings can be far stronger. </p>

Japan’s largest banks have seen steady and strong declines of credit costs during the past few quarters. Their earnings guidance upgrades do not seem to take this into account. Where credit costs remain low like the December 2020 quarter, FY22 earnings can be far stronger. 

Japan – Upgrading Earnings, Even Before Credit Costs Bottom

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.</p></div><div><p>These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.</p></div><div>
<p>These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.</p>
<p>Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.</p>
</div>

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.
Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.


<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>For the week from 22-26 March, Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-int-l-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22803:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-literature-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24388:1" rel="noopener">China Literature (772 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Financials, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Industrials sectors, and decreased in the Financials, Communication Services and Health Care sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> during the week. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unimicron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18778:1" rel="noopener">Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elite-semiconductor-memory" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9373:1" rel="noopener">Elite Semiconductor Memory (3006 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">AU Optronics (2409 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.For the week from 22-26 March, Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Baidu (9888 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Lenovo (992 HK) while there was short covering on Meituan (3690 HK), Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK), Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) and China Literature (772 HK). Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Financials, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), BASE Inc (4477 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) and Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) while shorts decreased on Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP), Monex Group Inc (8698 JP), Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP), Nexon (3659 JP) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP). Shorts increased in the Industrials sectors, and decreased in the Financials, Communication Services and Health Care sectors.In Korea, shorts decreased on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), SK Hynix (000660 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) during the week. Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Largan Precision (3008 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) while shorts were covered on Unimicron Technology (3037 TT), Elite Semiconductor Memory (3006 TT), AU Optronics (2409 TT) and TSMC (2330 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: Baidu, Kuaishou, Smoore, Yaskawa, BASE, Toshiba, Celltrion, Samsung, Largan

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Japanese Bank Deposits: Mountain High, Value Low

Bank deposits hit an all-time high of ¥854.608 trillion (US$7.84 trillion) on 31 March 2021. For Japanese bankers, however, such impressive...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Banks: When Spades Become Shovels

As Japan faces yet another coronavirus outbreak, it is increasingly apparent that some borrowers need not just cash but capital to survive. Short...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japan – Upgrading Earnings, Even Before Credit Costs Bottom

Japan’s largest banks have seen strong declines of credit costs. Their earnings guidance upgrades do not seem to take this into account. FY22 can...

Daniel Tabbush

Pair Trading Ideas - Asian Financials

We highlight potential trades among liquid large cap Asian financial stocks that are correlated and exhibit mean reversion. We recommend closing...

Brian Freitas

Asia Short Interest: Baidu, Kuaishou, Smoore, Yaskawa, BASE, Toshiba, Celltrion, Samsung, Largan

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

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