Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>1.     Emerging Markets equities and CDS suggest a new risk-on sequence:</h2><ul><li>EM stock index benchmark is on intervention levels for a new rise back and above 2018 highs.</li><li>CDS Emerging Markets is in parallel at key levels for a period of narrowing.</li><li>Intermediate EM relative outperformance/stabilization expected within the longer-term weakness.</li></ul><p> </p><h2>2.     Regional analysis suggests opportunities in Asia and CEEMEA:</h2><ul><li>China and Indonesia appear as clear outperforming countries within a mixed Asian area.</li><li>Turkey shows opportunity within a region which should experiment some relative strength for a few months.</li></ul><h2></h2><h2>RECOMMENDATION:  </h2><h2>             --&gt;  Rise in EM equities globally by 20/22% with a stabilization in relative value.</h2><h2>              --&gt; Indonesian stocks - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/482" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:482:1">iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)</a> - 22/34% rise potential with a strong narrowing of the CDS.</h2>

1.     Emerging Markets equities and CDS suggest a new risk-on sequence:EM stock index benchmark is on intervention levels for a new rise back and above 2018 highs.CDS Emerging Markets is in parallel at key levels for a period of narrowing.Intermediate EM relative outperformance/stabilization expected within the longer-term weakness. 2.     Regional analysis suggests opportunities in Asia and CEEMEA:China and Indonesia appear as clear outperforming countries within a mixed Asian area.Turkey shows opportunity within a region which should experiment some relative strength for a few months.RECOMMENDATION:               --&gt;  Rise in EM equities globally by 20/22% with a stabilization in relative value.              --&gt; Indonesian stocks - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US) - 22/34% rise potential with a strong narrowing of the CDS.

Emerging Markets Equities: Resume of the Bullish Trend Started in 2016, Indonesia to Outperform.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Despite recent deterioration, technical price and relative strength support levels continue to hold, and uptrends remain intact, for the MSCI EM index. Until this changes, we continue to view recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The attached report is a bottoms up summary of technically attractive setups across all emerging markets and sectors.  Our screen parameters included stocks hitting a 26-week relative strength high, with a greater than 500 million market cap. Taiwan, China, and…</p>

Despite recent deterioration, technical price and relative strength support levels continue to hold, and uptrends remain intact, for the MSCI EM index. Until this changes, we continue to view recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The attached report is a bottoms up summary of technically attractive setups across all emerging markets and sectors.  Our screen parameters included stocks hitting a 26-week relative strength high, with a greater than 500 million market cap. Taiwan, China, and…

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul><li>MSCI adds a small slice of China to its main equity indexes</li><li>Trump cancels death sentence on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6922" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1">Zte Corp H (763 HK)</a> as a favour to Xi</li><li>The PBoC tugs furiously at its monetary levers</li><li>Li Keqiang’s Tokyo charm offensive</li><li>The dark side of technology: the rapid rollout of China’s “social credit” scheme</li></ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That MattersMSCI adds a small slice of China to its main equity indexesTrump cancels death sentence on Zte Corp H (763 HK) as a favour to XiThe PBoC tugs furiously at its monetary leversLi Keqiang’s Tokyo charm offensiveThe dark side of technology: the rapid rollout of China’s “social credit” schemeIn my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

China MSCI/ZTE/PBoC/Japan Ties/Technology Push

<p>Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for some backing-and-filling of the USD, and (3) MSCI EM price and relative strength support levels continuing to hold, we see recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The MSCI BRIC index has reasserted its leadership status. In addition to China, fellow BRIC countries <strong>Brazil </strong>and <strong>India </strong>exhibit attractive setups, while <strong>Chile’s</strong><strong>IPSA</strong> also presents opportunities. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations across the EM universe, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.</p>

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for some backing-and-filling of the USD, and (3) MSCI EM price and relative strength support levels continuing to hold, we see recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The MSCI BRIC index has reasserted its leadership status. In addition to China, fellow BRIC countries Brazil and India exhibit attractive setups, while Chile’sIPSA also presents opportunities. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations across the EM universe, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging Markets Strategy: Attractive Setups in China, Brazil, India, and Chile

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

<p>A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in <strong>MSCI GEM</strong> on the recent new correction lows.  <strong>Asia Pacific ex Japan</strong> has not been quite as weak, so its buy signal is more muted, but both are now rated <strong>Bottom-Fishing Buy</strong>. We view these as only trading recommendations, given the late stage in the post-2016 uptrend, and, if the US fails to signal a final run, we would tighten stops or exit. </p>

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows.  Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been quite as weak, so its buy signal is more muted, but both are now rated Bottom-Fishing Buy. We view these as only trading recommendations, given the late stage in the post-2016 uptrend, and, if the US fails to signal a final run, we would tighten stops or exit. 

Emerging Markets: Trading Buy Signal Given

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

Emerging Markets Equities: Resume of the Bullish Trend Started in 2016, Indonesia to Outperform.

1. Emerging Markets equities and CDS suggest a new risk-on sequence: EM stock index benchmark is on intervention levels for a new rise back and...

Guillaume Coutant

EM: Technical Leadership Charts & Screen

Despite recent deterioration, technical price and relative strength support levels continue to hold, and uptrends remain intact, for the MSCI EM...

Vermilion Research

China MSCI/ZTE/PBoC/Japan Ties/Technology Push

China News That Matters MSCI adds a small slice of China to its main equity indexes Trump cancels death sentence on Zte Corp H (763 HK) as a favour...

Diana Choyleva

Emerging Markets Strategy: Attractive Setups in China, Brazil, India, and Chile

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for...

Vermilion Research

Emerging Markets: Trading Buy Signal Given

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows. Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been...

Peter Beuttell