Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There is no bubble in stock prices</li>
<li>P/Es are an inappropriate and misleading guide to assessing aggregate stock markets</li>
<li>Aggregate stock markets depend on liquidity and behavioral factors</li>
<li>
China and Emerging Markets have the most to gain from future equity investment</li>
</ul>


There is no bubble in stock prices
P/Es are an inappropriate and misleading guide to assessing aggregate stock markets
Aggregate stock markets depend on liquidity and behavioral factors

China and Emerging Markets have the most to gain from future equity investment


<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity hits record US$175 trillion in 2021, or near 2x World GDP</li>
<li>
Central Bank QE will test US$30 trillion, up by around 15% and led by US Fed</li>
<li>
Monetary velocity fell in 2020 (bullish), but will likely rise (bearish) in 2021</li>
<li>Major concern in 2021 is that strong economies will crowd-out asset markets</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity hits record US$175 trillion in 2021, or near 2x World GDP

Central Bank QE will test US$30 trillion, up by around 15% and led by US Fed

Monetary velocity fell in 2020 (bullish), but will likely rise (bearish) in 2021
Major concern in 2021 is that strong economies will crowd-out asset markets


<ul>
<li>
Geopolitical risk analysis is much in fashion, especially in the Trump era</li>
<li>Geopolitical events prove statistically significant per se, but economically minor in their effects on markets</li>
<li>Far more important is prevailing risk positioning of investors</li>
<li>Using this analysis, 2021 will decent for stocks, but the UK looks a compelling investment, whereas Asian EM now look less interesting</li>
</ul>



Geopolitical risk analysis is much in fashion, especially in the Trump era
Geopolitical events prove statistically significant per se, but economically minor in their effects on markets
Far more important is prevailing risk positioning of investors
Using this analysis, 2021 will decent for stocks, but the UK looks a compelling investment, whereas Asian EM now look less interesting


How Important Will Be Trump’s Exit, Geopolitics and Warren Buffett to Investment Markets in 2021?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>Earlier this month, the term "vaccine hesitancy" saw record mentions across the media on concern of "staggeringly low" confidence in COVID-19 vaccines (as per President-Elect Biden in a December 3 CNN interview, for example)</li>
<li>Although official surveys still suggest uptake intentions are in the low-60%s, both survey data and our own sentiment data suggest these figures have been encouragingly moving in the right direction and continue to improve in the MTD, supporting prevailing consensus recovery views for 2021 predicated on the vaccine rollout</li>
<li>A potential concern on the issue of vaccine uptake is the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in the UK and potential public perception of reduced vaccine effectiveness as a result of mutations; thus far public health officials have dismissed such notions, but questions are likely to linger until more conclusive data is available</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-highlight">
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 
</div>


Earlier this month, the term "vaccine hesitancy" saw record mentions across the media on concern of "staggeringly low" confidence in COVID-19 vaccines (as per President-Elect Biden in a December 3 CNN interview, for example)
Although official surveys still suggest uptake intentions are in the low-60%s, both survey data and our own sentiment data suggest these figures have been encouragingly moving in the right direction and continue to improve in the MTD, supporting prevailing consensus recovery views for 2021 predicated on the vaccine rollout
A potential concern on the issue of vaccine uptake is the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in the UK and potential public perception of reduced vaccine effectiveness as a result of mutations; thus far public health officials have dismissed such notions, but questions are likely to linger until more conclusive data is available


TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 


TMI Snapshot:  Vaccine Hesitancy Stories Dominate the News, But Uptake Sentiment Is Improving

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

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