Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.</p>

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<div>• High levels of <strong>Global Liquidity</strong> and <strong>V-shaped</strong> Economic Rebound</div><div>• Economies, so far, <strong>rebounding faster</strong> than after 2008 GFC</div><div>• <strong>China</strong> has unusually not created much liquidity in 2020</div><div>• Latest evidence show a<strong>cceleration in Chinese Shadow Bank</strong> lending</div>

• High levels of Global Liquidity and V-shaped Economic Rebound• Economies, so far, rebounding faster than after 2008 GFC• China has unusually not created much liquidity in 2020• Latest evidence show acceleration in Chinese Shadow Bank lending

A Left-Field Thought: Will Rising Chinese Liquidity Trigger A World GDP Boom in 2021?

<ul>
<li>High levels of Global Liquidity likely to persist for 1-2 years</li>
<li>Equities well underpinned by Global Liquidity</li>
<li>Central Banks, notably US Fed, compelled so far to monetize debt</li>
<li>‘Baby bust’ will trigger accelerating collapse in savings ratios</li>
<li>China economic de-coupling will add to inflation shock</li>
</ul>


High levels of Global Liquidity likely to persist for 1-2 years
Equities well underpinned by Global Liquidity
Central Banks, notably US Fed, compelled so far to monetize debt
‘Baby bust’ will trigger accelerating collapse in savings ratios
China economic de-coupling will add to inflation shock


Will Global Liquidity Boom Again in 2021?

<p>We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include <strong>Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities</strong>.</p>

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

<ul>
<li>World economy is enjoying a <strong>V-shaped rebound</strong>
</li>
<li>Bond markets are flat-lining, but look <strong>vulnerable</strong> to a post-Election sell-off</li>
<li>
<strong>Asset allocators</strong> remain skewed towards ‘safe’ assets</li>
<li>World equities are under-priced relative to both the expanding pool of <strong>Global Liquidity</strong> and the rising stock of ‘safe’ assets</li>
</ul>


World economy is enjoying a V-shaped rebound

Bond markets are flat-lining, but look vulnerable to a post-Election sell-off

Asset allocators remain skewed towards ‘safe’ assets
World equities are under-priced relative to both the expanding pool of Global Liquidity and the rising stock of ‘safe’ assets


Equity Markets Ahead of The US Presidential Election

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. In this report, we...

Vermilion Research

A Left-Field Thought: Will Rising Chinese Liquidity Trigger A World GDP Boom in 2021?

By easing restrictions on shadow bank lending China is boosting liquidity. Shadow bank credit is accelerating rapidly once again. This will boost...

Michael J. Howell

Will Global Liquidity Boom Again in 2021?

Global Liquidity looks set to rise strongly again in 2021 to over US$170 trillion or nearly twice World GDP. All money that is anywhere must be...

Michael J. Howell

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

We show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, including Services, Communications,...

Vermilion Research

Equity Markets Ahead of The US Presidential Election

World Equities and the US Presidential Election: Set To Rally? We analyse recent drivers of stocks including Global Liquidity, investors' risk...

Michael J. Howell