Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We remain constructive on global equities as the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE indexes consolidate above their respective 200-day moving averages. On the other hand, the MSCI EM index is breaking below its 200-day moving average and is flirting with a breakdown below 56,000 support (local currency).  We see attractive Opportunities in Manufacturing &amp; Materials in Europe, Japan and China, India, and Taiwan.

We remain constructive on global equities as the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE indexes consolidate above their respective 200-day moving averages. On the other hand, the MSCI EM index is breaking below its 200-day moving average and is flirting with a breakdown below 56,000 support (local currency).  We see attractive Opportunities in Manufacturing &amp; Materials in Europe, Japan and China, India, and Taiwan. 

Global Indexes Are Consolidating, EM Is Breaking Down

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is supported technically with all major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) pulling back to their respective 200-day moving averages. In this report we highlight important technical levels across global markets and highlight actionable opportunities from a bottoms-up perspective within Europe (attractive pullback opportunity on the STOXX Europe 600 index) and Japan, including stocks within Financials, Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing.

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is supported technically with all major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) pulling back to their respective 200-day moving averages. In this report we highlight important technical levels across global markets and highlight actionable opportunities from a bottoms-up perspective within Europe (attractive pullback opportunity on the STOXX Europe 600 index) and Japan, including stocks within Financials, Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing.

Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Latest data to early-May warn that Central Banks have re-engaged quantitative tightening
</li>
<li>Both the US Fed and the People's Bank (PBoC) are withdrawing funds at a more rapid pace</li>
<li>
Global Central Bank Liquidity sliding at minus 4&amp; annualised clip. This is NOT QE</li>
<li>Small off-sets to this drain from BoE and BoJ, which is loosest of majors</li>
</ul>


Latest data to early-May warn that Central Banks have re-engaged quantitative tightening

Both the US Fed and the People's Bank (PBoC) are withdrawing funds at a more rapid pace

Global Central Bank Liquidity sliding at minus 4&amp; annualised clip. This is NOT QE
Small off-sets to this drain from BoE and BoJ, which is loosest of majors


Warning For Markets: There Is No Quantitative Easing...QT Re-Engaged!

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity bottoming out, but Central Banks not yet easing</li>
<li>
US Fed only withdrew $30bn in Q1, versus $350 bn in Q4</li>
<li>
PBoC still tightening through OMOs</li>
<li>
ECB  on 'pause'</li>
<li>
QE4 is coming in 2019, but no evidence it has started yet</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity bottoming out, but Central Banks not yet easing

US Fed only withdrew $30bn in Q1, versus $350 bn in Q4

PBoC still tightening through OMOs

ECB  on 'pause'

QE4 is coming in 2019, but no evidence it has started yet


Bull Or Bear? Latest Global Liquidity Readings

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Global Indexes Are Consolidating, EM Is Breaking Down

We remain constructive on global equities as the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE indexes consolidate above their respective 200-day moving...

Vermilion Research

Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is...

Vermilion Research

Warning For Markets: There Is No Quantitative Easing...QT Re-Engaged!

Latest data to early-May warn that Central Banks have re-engaged quantitative tightening Both the US Fed and the People's Bank (PBoC) are...

Michael J. Howell

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally....

Vermilion Research

Bull Or Bear? Latest Global Liquidity Readings

Global Liquidity bottoming out, but Central Banks not yet easing US Fed only withdrew $30bn in Q1, versus $350 bn in Q4 PBoC still tightening...

Michael J. Howell