EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move on the part of the government, but part of a series of wider trends in the kingdom and its neighbours.

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move on the part of the government, but part of a series of wider trends in the kingdom and its neighbours.

Aramco and Saudi Wealth "De-Destribution"

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015), and I saw also @Hao Wang outlined a few similar ideas.  In this note I put a little more meat on the bones of the December note. In sum, the blow-ups we saw starting to develop in 2015 should continue in 2016. But given the market’s forward looking powers we should continue examining and accumulating as we did in 4Q15. If we timed the pain in commodities according to tax selling panics during 4Q15, we came out ahead.  New developments in places like Saudi may add more fuel to volatility. But we are looking at a multi-year story with many twists and turns. No easy way out. But a landscape abounding with opportunity.Topics from meetings<ul><li>Hong Kong and malaise of Civil Service…</li><li>Bank revenues from deals, ECM and role of research…</li><li>Space X and other cool updates</li><li>Three scenarios 2016</li><li>A last word on faulty data</li></ul>Long note with core views and investment ideas up front.

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015), and I saw also @Hao Wang outlined a few similar ideas.  In this note I put a little more meat on the bones of the December note. In sum, the blow-ups we saw starting to develop in 2015 should continue in 2016. But given the market’s forward looking powers we should continue examining and accumulating as we did in 4Q15. If we timed the pain in commodities according to tax selling panics during 4Q15, we came out ahead.  New developments in places like Saudi may add more fuel to volatility. But we are looking at a multi-year story with many twists and turns. No easy way out. But a landscape abounding with opportunity.Topics from meetingsHong Kong and malaise of Civil Service…Bank revenues from deals, ECM and role of research…Space X and other cool updatesThree scenarios 2016A last word on faulty dataLong note with core views and investment ideas up front.

2016 Names Not Trades and a Tough Energy Environment (And Other Recent Visits)

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, announced the International Solar Alliance (ISA). The ISA aims to have 121 signatories, including the US and China, as well as a long list of developing countries situated between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.It aims to mobilize $1tn worth of investment by 2030 towards developing solar power around the world, especially in the sun rich countries…

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, announced the International Solar Alliance (ISA). The ISA aims to have 121 signatories, including the US and China, as well as a long list of developing countries situated between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.It aims to mobilize $1tn worth of investment by 2030 towards developing solar power around the world, especially in the sun rich countries…

Announcing the International Solar Alliance

In <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/how-oil-can-head-over-100-by-2017" target="_blank">my last thoughts on oil</a>, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the world, with these being declared as the first of the coming storm. An Arab Winter is coming and the inability of the world to band together to defeat a relatively small force in Raqqa bodes ill for our ability to handle it. This piece looks at some key questions over Daesh  -- the Arabic acronym for Islamic State -- and how we deal with them. Daesh can…

 The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the world, with these being declared as the first of the coming storm. An Arab Winter is coming and the inability of the world to band together to defeat a relatively small force in Raqqa bodes ill for our ability to handle it. This piece looks at some key questions over Daesh  -- the Arabic acronym for Islamic State -- and how we deal with them. Daesh can…

United States

Murphy Oil Corporation is a worldwide oil and gas exploration and production company with refining and marketing operations in the United States and the United Kingdom. The Company also has exploration and production activities in countries that include United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Ecuador. Murphy Oil has retail operations as well in the United States.

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Murphy Oil Corp (MUR US)

Aramco and Saudi Wealth "De-Destribution"

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move...

Emad Mostaque

2016 Names Not Trades and a Tough Energy Environment (And Other Recent Visits)

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015),...

Charles De Trenck

Announcing the International Solar Alliance

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande,...

Ishita Jain

Is an OPEC Cut Imminent?

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the...

Emad Mostaque

Deconstructing Daesh

The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the...

Emad Mostaque

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)