'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS - 2nd APRIL •</strong></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/828/original/2021-04-03_06-36-35.png?1617567965" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198828"></figure></section><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heiwado-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11411:1" rel="noopener">Heiwado (8276 JP)</a> continues to see a recovery in margins, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nachi-fujikoshi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9817:1" rel="noopener">Nachi Fujikoshi (6474 JP)</a> struggles. Earnings momentum is now slowing at the overvalued and Overbought staffing agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-pool-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7878:1" rel="noopener">S Pool (2471 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/830/original/image_44290506921617568328843.png?1617568330" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198830"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/831/original/image_57651559131617568365442.png?1617568366" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198831"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/832/original/image_4237424241617568389958.png?1617568391" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198832"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 2nd APRIL •</strong> </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/833/original/2021-04-03_06-37-00.png?1617568432" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198833"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Heiwado also announced positive interim and annual forecasts for the current fiscal year - for more, see the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p>
</div>


• RESULTS - 2nd APRIL •
RESULTS - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, Heiwado (8276 JP) continues to see a recovery in margins, while Nachi Fujikoshi (6474 JP) struggles. Earnings momentum is now slowing at the overvalued and Overbought staffing agency S Pool (2471 JP).
• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 2nd APRIL • 
FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Heiwado also announced positive interim and annual forecasts for the current fiscal year - for more, see the DETAIL section below.


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - ​​​​​​​​Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p>Thursday was the disclosure 'peak' for the November/February/May/August year-end group of companies. One-quarter of the companies reporting results yesterday were in the red, and average revenues are margins are still declining. Half of the large caps are reporting losses for the trailing twelve-month period. On a brighter note,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nachi-fujikoshi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9817:1" rel="noopener">Nachi Fujikoshi (6474 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2167:1" rel="noopener">AGC (5201 JP) </a>continued the trend of industrial upward revisions ahead of their imminent full-year results. Our best and worst pairing from Thursday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/create-restaurants-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11513:1" rel="noopener">create restaurants (3387 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/603/original/2021-01-15_06-37-49.png?1610660282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182603"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/604/original/2021-01-15_06-38-33.png?1610660325" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182604"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Thursday was the disclosure 'peak' for the November/February/May/August year-end group of companies. One-quarter of the companies reporting results yesterday were in the red, and average revenues are margins are still declining. Half of the large caps are reporting losses for the trailing twelve-month period. On a brighter note,  Canon (7751 JP), Nachi Fujikoshi (6474 JP), and AGC (5201 JP) continued the trend of industrial upward revisions ahead of their imminent full-year results. Our best and worst pairing from Thursday's announcements is Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and create restaurants (3387 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​14 Fast, Create, Canon, AGC

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/359/original/2020-07-16_06-39-04.png?1594849241" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146359"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/360/original/2020-07-16_06-42-12.png?1594849361" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146360"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a></strong>- Money Forward's impressive revenue growth continued unabated in the second quarter. However necessary the ¥611 million (22% of sales) quarterly advertising budget is to sustain such revenue momentum, the lack of 'margin' improvement has shaved two points from our Results Score. The shares are close to a new Relative Price Score high and to being Overbought. We would trim into any announcement bounce above ¥8,000.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>66 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 10 Positive / 9 Neutral / 47 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -5.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.7% Quarter YoY / +1.3% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.2ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 42%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>24 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 7 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 8 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.3</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Money Forward (3994 JP)- Money Forward's impressive revenue growth continued unabated in the second quarter. However necessary the ¥611 million (22% of sales) quarterly advertising budget is to sustain such revenue momentum, the lack of 'margin' improvement has shaved two points from our Results Score. The shares are close to a new Relative Price Score high and to being Overbought. We would trim into any announcement bounce above ¥8,000.
DAILY STATS
66 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 10 Positive / 9 Neutral / 47 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -5.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -14.7% Quarter YoY / +1.3% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.2ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 42%
 24 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 7 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 8 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.3


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 15th July - Money Forward, TKP, Nachi-Fujikoshi, Tokyo Steel

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Yesterday <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> announced that they would be further reforming their domestic sales structure to emphasise regional focus while also positioning car-sharing as a key business to help maintain domestic sales at the 1.5m unit level.</p><p>The Toyota group is going through a lot of changes and we analyse these moves in that context below.</p><p>And a new take on Pizza delivery -</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/068/502/original/2018_SEMA_PIE_PRO_TUNDRA_01_1B7CFABF746E20852CB01A94D0574C4215047919.jpg?1541119297" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="68502"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Toyota</div>

Yesterday Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced that they would be further reforming their domestic sales structure to emphasise regional focus while also positioning car-sharing as a key business to help maintain domestic sales at the 1.5m unit level.The Toyota group is going through a lot of changes and we analyse these moves in that context below.And a new take on Pizza delivery -Source: Toyota

Toyota Group: Mobility as a Service Strategy Takes Shape with a Dash of Mobile Robot Pizza

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>We have a positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24075" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24075:1">Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings (267250 KS)</a> (HHIH). Our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests a base case implied value per share of 499,600 won, which would represent an 18% upside from current levels. </strong>The biggest IPO in Korea is expected to be Hyundai Oilbank, in which HHIH has a 91.1% stake. The Hyundai Oilbank IPO is expected to be completed in 4Q18. Given that the stock market tends to look forward 6-12 months, the expectation of the biggest IPO in Korea (Hyundai…</p></div>

We have a positive view on Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings (267250 KS) (HHIH). Our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests a base case implied value per share of 499,600 won, which would represent an 18% upside from current levels. The biggest IPO in Korea is expected to be Hyundai Oilbank, in which HHIH has a 91.1% stake. The Hyundai Oilbank IPO is expected to be completed in 4Q18. Given that the stock market tends to look forward 6-12 months, the expectation of the biggest IPO in Korea (Hyundai…

Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings - Update on Its Implied Valuation

Japan

NACHI-FUJIKOSHI CORP. manufactures bearings.  The Company also produces and sells machine tools, oil and air pressure equipment, and industrial robots.

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Nachi Fujikoshi (6474 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

RESULTS - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, Heiwado (8276 JP) continues to see a recovery in margins,...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/14 Fast, Create, Canon, AGC

Thursday was the disclosure 'peak' for the November/February/May/August year-end group of companies. One-quarter of the companies reporting results...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 15th July - Money Forward, TKP, Nachi-Fujikoshi, Tokyo Steel

Money Forward (3994 JP)- Money Forward's impressive revenue growth continued unabated in the second quarter. However necessary the ¥611 million...

Campbell Gunn

Toyota Group: Mobility as a Service Strategy Takes Shape with a Dash of Mobile Robot Pizza

Yesterday Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced that they would be further reforming their domestic sales structure to emphasise regional focus while...

Mio Kato

Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings - Update on Its Implied Valuation

We have a positive view on Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings (267250 KS) (HHIH). Our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests a base case implied value...

Douglas Kim

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - ​​​​​​​​Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

RESULTS - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, Heiwado (8276 JP) continues to see a recovery in margins,...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​14 Fast, Create, Canon, AGC

Thursday was the disclosure 'peak' for the November/February/May/August year-end group of companies. One-quarter of the companies reporting results...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 15th July - Money Forward, TKP, Nachi-Fujikoshi, Tokyo Steel

Money Forward (3994 JP)- Money Forward's impressive revenue growth continued unabated in the second quarter. However necessary the ¥611 million...

Campbell Gunn

Toyota Group: Mobility as a Service Strategy Takes Shape with a Dash of Mobile Robot Pizza

Yesterday Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced that they would be further reforming their domestic sales structure to emphasise regional focus while...

Mio Kato

Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings - Update on Its Implied Valuation

We have a positive view on Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings (267250 KS) (HHIH). Our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests a base case implied value...

Douglas Kim

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/14 Fast, Create, Canon, AGC