Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The Fed cut rates this week—likely the last cut for an extended period—and moved into a wait-and-see stance / monitoring mode, to assess economic conditions ahead.</li>
<li>Both the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> have suffered very high volatility this week, after the Fed decision, after several flat days.</li>
<li>This insight will try to forecast what is the next probable direction for the two main US indices in the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


The Fed cut rates this week—likely the last cut for an extended period—and moved into a wait-and-see stance / monitoring mode, to assess economic conditions ahead.
Both the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) have suffered very high volatility this week, after the Fed decision, after several flat days.
This insight will try to forecast what is the next probable direction for the two main US indices in the next few weeks.


US Indices (SPX,NDX) Tactical Outlook After After the Fed's Final Rate Cut

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).</li>
<li>We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).
We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"


New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seagate-technology-holdings-pl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9129:1" rel="noopener">Seagate Technology (STX US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-digital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1094:1" rel="noopener">Western Digital (WDC US)</a> are the top forecasted additions with the highest price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lululemon-athletica-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8316:1" rel="noopener">Lululemon Athletica (LULU US)</a> are the forecasted deletions with the largest price drop.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrovial-se-d1237de2-ee34-4fbb-8db7-53dd686904f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46086:1" rel="noopener">Ferrovial (FER US)</a> can be a surprise addition depending on the treatment of its foreign listing.</li>
</ul>



Seagate Technology (STX US), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and Western Digital (WDC US) are the top forecasted additions with the highest price surge.

Trade Desk (TTD US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU US) are the forecasted deletions with the largest price drop.

Ferrovial (FER US) can be a surprise addition depending on the treatment of its foreign listing.


Nasdaq100 December 2025 Forecast (Final): 12 Changes

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> stalled this week. The week is not over yet, but let’s take a closer look at our tactical model to assess short-term scenarios.</li>
<li>Obviously tariffs will impact the economy but often markets can defy rationality, leading to short-term pain if we’re positioned incorrectly.</li>
<li>This insight evaluates how far the rally could extend and how deep a pullback might go, this can be of interest to option desks or to anyone looking to hedge.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) stalled this week. The week is not over yet, but let’s take a closer look at our tactical model to assess short-term scenarios.
Obviously tariffs will impact the economy but often markets can defy rationality, leading to short-term pain if we’re positioned incorrectly.
This insight evaluates how far the rally could extend and how deep a pullback might go, this can be of interest to option desks or to anyone looking to hedge.


Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Outlook: Is The Bear Market Over or Not?

<ul>
<li>This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.</li>
<li>Take this as a sort of "user manual" to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.</li>
</ul>


This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.
Take this as a sort of "user manual" to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War.
The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.


Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

US Indices (SPX,NDX) Tactical Outlook After After the Fed's Final Rate Cut

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indices experienced high volatility this week, after the Fed cut rates, and shifted officially to wait-and-see mode....

Nico Rosti

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

Nasdaq100 December 2025 Forecast (Final): 12 Changes

STX, ALNY, WDC are the top forecasted addition. TTD, ON, LULU are the top forecasted deletions. FER can be a surprise addition displacing EBAY.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Outlook: Is The Bear Market Over or Not?

The Nasdaq-100's rally stalled this week, prompting a closer look at short-term scenarios. This insight evaluates rally and pullback/crash...

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...

Nico Rosti

US Indices (SPX,NDX) Tactical Outlook After After the Fed's Final Rate Cut

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indices experienced high volatility this week, after the ​Fed cut rates, and shifted officially to wait-and-see mode....

Nico Rosti

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

Nasdaq100 December 2025 Forecast (Final): 12 Changes

​STX, ALNY, WDC are the top forecasted addition. TTD, ON, LULU are the top forecasted deletions. FER can be a surprise addition displacing EBAY.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Outlook: Is The Bear Market Over or Not?

​The Nasdaq-100's rally stalled this week, prompting a closer look at short-term scenarios. This insight evaluates rally and pullback/crash...

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

​Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...

Nico Rosti

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indices experienced high volatility this week, after the Fed cut rates, and shifted officially to wait-and-see mode....

STX, ALNY, WDC are the top forecasted addition. TTD, ON, LULU are the top forecasted deletions. FER can be a surprise addition displacing EBAY.

The Nasdaq-100's rally stalled this week, prompting a closer look at short-term scenarios. This insight evaluates rally and pullback/crash...

Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...