Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).</li>
<li>We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).
We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"


New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> stalled this week. The week is not over yet, but let’s take a closer look at our tactical model to assess short-term scenarios.</li>
<li>Obviously tariffs will impact the economy but often markets can defy rationality, leading to short-term pain if we’re positioned incorrectly.</li>
<li>This insight evaluates how far the rally could extend and how deep a pullback might go, this can be of interest to option desks or to anyone looking to hedge.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) stalled this week. The week is not over yet, but let’s take a closer look at our tactical model to assess short-term scenarios.
Obviously tariffs will impact the economy but often markets can defy rationality, leading to short-term pain if we’re positioned incorrectly.
This insight evaluates how far the rally could extend and how deep a pullback might go, this can be of interest to option desks or to anyone looking to hedge.


Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Outlook: Is The Bear Market Over or Not?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>US interest rate expectations continue to whip markets around, even as more cracks emerge in the AI trade.</li>
<li>Japan goes for broke with its latest budget and debt issuance.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
US interest rate expectations continue to whip markets around, even as more cracks emerge in the AI trade.
Japan goes for broke with its latest budget and debt issuance.


Overview #42 – What a Difference a Day Makes!

<ul>
<li>This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.</li>
<li>Take this as a sort of "user manual" to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.</li>
</ul>


This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.
Take this as a sort of "user manual" to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War.
The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.


Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. Our model suggests it has entered a price zone where a reversal is highly likely.</li>
<li>Thursday's closing low of 19,225 falls within a price zone where our WEEKLY NDX model assigns a 97% probability of reversal. It's clearly in the tail area and <strong>deeply oversold</strong>.</li>
<li>When the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq 100</a> declines for 4 consecutive weeks, our time model assigns a 98% probability of reversal based on the current historical pattern.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. Our model suggests it has entered a price zone where a reversal is highly likely.
Thursday's closing low of 19,225 falls within a price zone where our WEEKLY NDX model assigns a 97% probability of reversal. It's clearly in the tail area and deeply oversold.
When the Nasdaq 100 declines for 4 consecutive weeks, our time model assigns a 98% probability of reversal based on the current historical pattern.


Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Poised for Rebound After 4-Week Slump

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Outlook: Is The Bear Market Over or Not?

The Nasdaq-100's rally stalled this week, prompting a closer look at short-term scenarios. This insight evaluates rally and pullback/crash...

Nico Rosti

Overview #42 – What a Difference a Day Makes!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Fed rate cuts, Japan spending and Lithium upgrades

Rikki Malik

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Poised for Rebound After 4-Week Slump

The Nasdaq-100 Index has fallen for four consecutive weeks, reaching a deeply oversold level according to our model. A reversal from this price...

Nico Rosti

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Outlook: Is The Bear Market Over or Not?

​The Nasdaq-100's rally stalled this week, prompting a closer look at short-term scenarios. This insight evaluates rally and pullback/crash...

Nico Rosti

Overview #42 – What a Difference a Day Makes!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Fed rate cuts, Japan spending and Lithium upgrades

Rikki Malik

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) And Trump's Tariffs War: How To Read Our Insights/Models During A Bear Market/Crash

​Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Poised for Rebound After 4-Week Slump

The Nasdaq-100 Index has fallen for four consecutive weeks, reaching a deeply oversold level according to our model. A reversal from this price...

Nico Rosti

The Nasdaq-100's rally stalled this week, prompting a closer look at short-term scenarios. This insight evaluates rally and pullback/crash...

Learn how to apply our market analysis during a financial crisis, specifically the Bear Market caused by Trump's Tariffs War, with an example from...