Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country weightings.We provide more detail on each of these countries in the full version of this report, focusing on the economic, financial and structural governance issues that we believe will be the most important market drivers over the course of this year and beyond.

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country weightings.We provide more detail on each of these countries in the full version of this report, focusing on the economic, financial and structural governance issues that we believe will be the most important market drivers over the course of this year and beyond.

Governance, Valuations and the Crisis of State Capitalism

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21085" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085">Naspers Ltd</a> (Naspers) is the major shareholder of leading Chinese internet firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26">Tencent Holdings Ltd</a> (Tencent) with a 33.5% stake. It is South African listed and has a market cap of US$54bn. Naspers' stake in Tencent alone is worth nearly $60bn so the market seems to assume negative values for the rest of the businesses. This is patently unfair and we think there is a compelling investment case to hold Naspers, both as a proxy for its Tencent holding as well as its developing internet holdings globally. These are now past peak funding and starting to deliver real revenue growth.

Naspers Ltd (Naspers) is the major shareholder of leading Chinese internet firm Tencent Holdings Ltd (Tencent) with a 33.5% stake. It is South African listed and has a market cap of US$54bn. Naspers' stake in Tencent alone is worth nearly $60bn so the market seems to assume negative values for the rest of the businesses. This is patently unfair and we think there is a compelling investment case to hold Naspers, both as a proxy for its Tencent holding as well as its developing internet holdings globally. These are now past peak funding and starting to deliver real revenue growth.

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

South Africa

Naspers Limited operates in the technology industry. The Company invests in global internet companies across the world.

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Naspers (NPN SJ)

Governance, Valuations and the Crisis of State Capitalism

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country...

John-Paul Smith

Naspers. More than a Ten(Percent) Story

Naspers Ltd (Naspers) is the major shareholder of leading Chinese internet firm Tencent Holdings Ltd (Tencent) with a 33.5% stake. It is South...

New Street Research

China and the EM Ugly Contest

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately...

John-Paul Smith

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