Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>’s 4QFY22 results were yet another disappointment with the company’s revenue growing by 8.9% YoY, a new low after slowing to 9.7% YoY in the previous quarter.</li>
<li>This was mostly priced-in, considering that 4QFY22 revenue and OP exceeded consensus by 2.3% and 216% respectively.</li>
<li>However, FY23 and FY24 estimates are still ambitious and there’s a lot of downside risk to consensus from 2QFY22 onwards.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s 4QFY22 results were yet another disappointment with the company’s revenue growing by 8.9% YoY, a new low after slowing to 9.7% YoY in the previous quarter.
This was mostly priced-in, considering that 4QFY22 revenue and OP exceeded consensus by 2.3% and 216% respectively.
However, FY23 and FY24 estimates are still ambitious and there’s a lot of downside risk to consensus from 2QFY22 onwards.


Alibaba: 4QFY22 Beats Consensus but Disappointments Could Be Around the Corner

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>BILI dismissed employees in game, e-commerce, and video in May.</li>
<li>We believe the growth rates of minor businesses will slow down significantly in 1Q22.</li>
<li>However, the operating margin will improve in 2022 and 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILI dismissed employees in game, e-commerce, and video in May.
We believe the growth rates of minor businesses will slow down significantly in 1Q22.
However, the operating margin will improve in 2022 and 2023.


Bilibili (9626 HK) Pre-Earnings: Layoff Will Slow Down Minor Biz, But More Importantly Cut Loss

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 15% YoY and operating margin improved YoY in 1Q22.</li>
<li>The authorities began to grant licenses and new games will be launched in China and overseas.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 25% and a price target at US$120. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 15% YoY and operating margin improved YoY in 1Q22.
The authorities began to grant licenses and new games will be launched in China and overseas.
We set an upside of 25% and a price target at US$120. Buy.


NetEase (9999 HK): Steady Without New Games in 1Q22 and New Games in Pipeline, Buy

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO was almost entirely taken up by cornerstones.</li>
<li>The company had also earlier obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other mainly PE investors. These investors will be released from their lock-up on 1st Jun 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates over the past few months.</li>
</ul>


Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO was almost entirely taken up by cornerstones.
The company had also earlier obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other mainly PE investors. These investors will be released from their lock-up on 1st Jun 2022.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates over the past few months.


Cloud Village IPO Lock-Up - Selling the PE Stock (US$350m) Might Solve the Liquidity Issues

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>With LIC not delivering and Delhivery needing insurance, combined with the Korean cancellations and HK silence, it looks like its going to be a quiet few weeks for IPOs.</li>
<li>On placements, both the Korean deals were a disappointment, despite being well-flagged.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
With LIC not delivering and Delhivery needing insurance, combined with the Korean cancellations and HK silence, it looks like its going to be a quiet few weeks for IPOs.
On placements, both the Korean deals were a disappointment, despite being well-flagged.


ECM Weekly (22nd May 22) - JD, LIC, Delhivery, Leapmotor, Vista, Paradeep, Woori, Hyundai Heavy, NIO

China

NetEase, Inc. is an Internet technology company that develops applications, services and other Internet technologies in China. The Company's core businesses consist of email service, web portal and online entertainment, including online gaming services. NetEase also offers online advertising, search, mobile applications and e-commerce.

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NetEase Inc (NTES US)

Alibaba: 4QFY22 Beats Consensus but Disappointments Could Be Around the Corner

After a 14% move following earnings, Alibaba shares have reached the upper end of the trend channel and are positioned for another leg down with...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Bilibili (9626 HK) Pre-Earnings: Layoff Will Slow Down Minor Biz, But More Importantly Cut Loss

BILI dismissed employees in game, e-commerce, and video. We believe the growth rates of minor businesses will slow down in 1Q22. However, the...

Ming Lu

NetEase (9999 HK): Steady Without New Games in 1Q22 and New Games in Pipeline, Buy

Total revenue grew by 15% YoY and operating margin improved YoY in 1Q22. The authorities began to grant licenses and new games will be launched in...

Ming Lu

Cloud Village IPO Lock-Up - Selling the PE Stock (US$350m) Might Solve the Liquidity Issues

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. Investors will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (22nd May 22) - JD, LIC, Delhivery, Leapmotor, Vista, Paradeep, Woori, Hyundai Heavy, NIO

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)