TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.</li>
<li>Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. </li>
<li>While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.</li>
</ul>


Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.
Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. 
While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.


High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul>
<li>Valmont Industries operates in four primary business segments: Engineered Infrastructure Products, Utility Support Structures, Irrigation and Coatings; as well as in the tubing, grinding media and electrolytic manganese dioxide businesses.</li>
<li>Valmont focuses on two global markets: infrastructure and agriculture.</li>
<li>The Irrigation segment manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment, and related parts and services under the Valley brand name for the agricultural industry; and tubular products for industrial customers</li>
</ul>


Valmont Industries operates in four primary business segments: Engineered Infrastructure Products, Utility Support Structures, Irrigation and Coatings; as well as in the tubing, grinding media and electrolytic manganese dioxide businesses.
Valmont focuses on two global markets: infrastructure and agriculture.
The Irrigation segment manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment, and related parts and services under the Valley brand name for the agricultural industry; and tubular products for industrial customers


<ul>
<li>Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.</li>
<li>Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?</li>
<li>The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. </li>
</ul>


Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.
Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?
The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. 


Stock Market News, Outlooks, and Top Picks, Cappuccino Finance

Cappuccino Finance

Stock Market News, Outlooks, and Top Picks

Cappuccino Finance, provides Financial vignettes for your cappuccino break!

Fun & informational articles to read in 10 min or less.

<ul><li>Amkor Technology manufactures and sells advanced semiconductor equipment.</li><li>They make semiconductor packaging and test services for leading semiconductor companies such as Intel, Samsung, AMD, and etc</li><li>The overall semiconductor industry has been growing, and Amkor’s revenue has been growing nicely as well.</li></ul>

Amkor Technology manufactures and sells advanced semiconductor equipment.They make semiconductor packaging and test services for leading semiconductor companies such as Intel, Samsung, AMD, and etcThe overall semiconductor industry has been growing, and Amkor’s revenue has been growing nicely as well.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New data from Deloitte shows US streaming subscription churn is 35% and over 50% for younger demographics. Whoa!</li>
<li>Competition for attention and competition for the wallet are causes, a combination of the volume of streaming services combined with social media, gaming, and UGC....many of which are free. </li>
<li>The LT takeaway is streaming services likely have to rely on free-ad supported tiers to retain customers. Higher customer acquisition costs and lower multiple ad revenues not good for streamers.</li>
</ul>


New data from Deloitte shows US streaming subscription churn is 35% and over 50% for younger demographics. Whoa!
Competition for attention and competition for the wallet are causes, a combination of the volume of streaming services combined with social media, gaming, and UGC....many of which are free. 
The LT takeaway is streaming services likely have to rely on free-ad supported tiers to retain customers. Higher customer acquisition costs and lower multiple ad revenues not good for streamers.


United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Spotify 1Q22 Earnings: Netflix Like?

The more Daniel Ek said that Spotify is not like Netflix, the more we thought...hes right! Netflix has a less competition, more pricing power, and...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 4/25

Bill Ackman and Buying “Bargains”; One of the notable market news stories this past week was Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Netflix 1Q22: Willfull Ignorance

Netflix management seemed unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years. Competitive...

Aaron Gabin

Where Are the Value Stocks?

Amkor Technology manufactures and sells advanced semiconductor equipment. They make semiconductor packaging and test services for leading...

Cappuccino Finance

Streaming's New Hamster Wheel

New data shows US streaming subscription churn is 35% and over 50% for younger demographics. To compete, streamers will have to rely more on free...

Aaron Gabin

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