HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

New Horizon Health  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>New Horizon Health (NHH) is different from when it was just listed. We also recognize the progress of NHH's financial performance. Obviously, NHH is one step closer to achieving breakeven. </li>
<li>Theoretically, the market space is very broad, but the actual market penetration rate depends on customer cognition/acceptance. If the market education isn’t well done, NHH would soon reach growth bottleneck.</li>
<li>It seems entering NRDL is inevitable in the future. We hope NHH would not make the high growth difficult to sustain, which largely determines the upper limit of its valuation.</li>
</ul>


New Horizon Health (NHH) is different from when it was just listed. We also recognize the progress of NHH's financial performance. Obviously, NHH is one step closer to achieving breakeven. 
Theoretically, the market space is very broad, but the actual market penetration rate depends on customer cognition/acceptance. If the market education isn’t well done, NHH would soon reach growth bottleneck.
It seems entering NRDL is inevitable in the future. We hope NHH would not make the high growth difficult to sustain, which largely determines the upper limit of its valuation.


New Horizon Health Placement (6606.HK) - Things Start to Get on Track, but There Are Still Concerns

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>After an IPO attempt two years ago, Mirxes filed an updated prospectus in an attempt to raise at least US$100m via a Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we analyzed its product pipelines and highlighted signs of commercialization challenges.</li>
<li>In this note, we note that the company expanded its clinical trial plans. Yet, more data shows that blockbuster-level uptakes are unlikely given the profile of its clinical data.</li>
</ul>


After an IPO attempt two years ago, Mirxes filed an updated prospectus in an attempt to raise at least US$100m via a Hong Kong listing.
In our previous note, we analyzed its product pipelines and highlighted signs of commercialization challenges.
In this note, we note that the company expanded its clinical trial plans. Yet, more data shows that blockbuster-level uptakes are unlikely given the profile of its clinical data.


Mirxes Pre-IPO: Challenges for Mass Adoption Become Clearer

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New Horizon Health is a “big client” of Deloitte, who, however, still delay the publication of 2023 results. This leads us to take the issues raised by Deloitte more seriously.</li>
<li>It’s uncertain whether New Horizon Health would obtain the audit report with non-qualified opinion or "survive" the independent investigation.2023 Annual Report/2024 Mid-Year Report/2024 Annual Report may continue to be postponed.</li>
<li>If New Horizon Health fails provide reasonable explanation, investors don't need to spend any more time on the Company with no integrity.We forecast the timetable for the resumption of trading.</li>
</ul>


New Horizon Health is a “big client” of Deloitte, who, however, still delay the publication of 2023 results. This leads us to take the issues raised by Deloitte more seriously.
It’s uncertain whether New Horizon Health would obtain the audit report with non-qualified opinion or "survive" the independent investigation.2023 Annual Report/2024 Mid-Year Report/2024 Annual Report may continue to be postponed.
If New Horizon Health fails provide reasonable explanation, investors don't need to spend any more time on the Company with no integrity.We forecast the timetable for the resumption of trading.


New Horizon Health (6606 HK) - Behind the Trading Suspension and the Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genetron-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28435:1" rel="noopener">Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US)</a> shareholders will vote on the consortium’s US$4.08 per ADS offer on 21 February. The offer is light in comparison to historical trading ranges.</li>
<li>Completion is conditional on shareholder approval, dissenting shareholders representing less than 15% of outstanding shares and regulatory approvals (NDRC, MoC and SAFE). </li>
<li>Despite the light offer, the completion conditions should be met. At the last close price and end of March completion, the gross and annualised spread is 7.7% and 45.5%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US) shareholders will vote on the consortium’s US$4.08 per ADS offer on 21 February. The offer is light in comparison to historical trading ranges.
Completion is conditional on shareholder approval, dissenting shareholders representing less than 15% of outstanding shares and regulatory approvals (NDRC, MoC and SAFE). 
Despite the light offer, the completion conditions should be met. At the last close price and end of March completion, the gross and annualised spread is 7.7% and 45.5%, respectively.


Genetron (GTH US): Wide Spread Ahead of the 21 February Vote

China

New Horizon Health Limited operates cancer screening technology development business. The Company develops and sells colorectal cancer screening test products, gastric cancer screening test products, and other products. New Horizon Health markets its products throughout China.

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New Horizon Health (6606 HK)

New Horizon Health Placement (6606.HK) - Things Start to Get on Track, but There Are Still Concerns

New Horizon Health is starting to get on track, with practical development strategy. But whether high growth is sustainable and where's its...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Mirxes Pre-IPO: Challenges for Mass Adoption Become Clearer

Mirxes files updated prospectus for Hong Kong listing, expanding clinical trial plans but facing challenges in achieving blockbuster-level success.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM