Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research report on June 5, 2024. </li><li>The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.</li></ul>

We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research report on June 5, 2024. The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.

NGERN TID LOR - 2Q24E Earnings to Have Grown YoY but Declined QoQ

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt21.87 (vs. Bt24.11), based on the earnings yield and a revised required rate of return of 7.9% (vs. 6.8%) following the adjustment to the macroeconomic factors used for the beta calculation based on our new house view.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.</li><li>Meanwhile, the tactical downside risk is limited</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt21.87 (vs. Bt24.11), based on the earnings yield and a revised required rate of return of 7.9% (vs. 6.8%) following the adjustment to the macroeconomic factors used for the beta calculation based on our new house view.The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.Meanwhile, the tactical downside risk is limited

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.</li><li>The 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1,104mn (+15.6% YoY and +22.5% QoQ), beating our forecast by 9%, as the cost-to-income ratio and the provision were smaller than expected.</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.The 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1,104mn (+15.6% YoY and +22.5% QoQ), beating our forecast by 9%, as the cost-to-income ratio and the provision were smaller than expected.

Ngern Tid Lor - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings with Lower Credit Costs QoQ

<ul><li>TIDLOR has announced a planned restructuring of its shareholding and management, which involves establishing a holding company named Tidlor Holdings Public Company Limited (Tidlor Holdings).</li><li>This restructuring entails a tender offer to purchase all shares of TIDLOR from shareholders, with Tidlor Holdings issuing new ordinary shares in exchange for TIDLOR’s existing ordinary shares at a swap ratio of one-to-one.</li><li>Following the tender offer, Tidlor Holdings will replace TIDLOR on the SET, with TIDLOR being delisted on the same day.</li></ul>

TIDLOR has announced a planned restructuring of its shareholding and management, which involves establishing a holding company named Tidlor Holdings Public Company Limited (Tidlor Holdings).This restructuring entails a tender offer to purchase all shares of TIDLOR from shareholders, with Tidlor Holdings issuing new ordinary shares in exchange for TIDLOR’s existing ordinary shares at a swap ratio of one-to-one.Following the tender offer, Tidlor Holdings will replace TIDLOR on the SET, with TIDLOR being delisted on the same day.

Ngern Tid Lor Plc. - TIDLOR Announces Shareholding and Management Restructuring Plans

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.</li><li>The 1Q24E net profit is expected at Bt1,010mn (+5.8% YoY, +12.1% QoQ), while EPS is forecast to decrease 6.0% YoY due to an increase in the number of shares (given the stock dividend in May 2023).</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.The 1Q24E net profit is expected at Bt1,010mn (+5.8% YoY, +12.1% QoQ), while EPS is forecast to decrease 6.0% YoY due to an increase in the number of shares (given the stock dividend in May 2023).

Ngern Tid Lor -1Q24E Net Profit Expected to Grow Both YoY and QoQ

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB)

NGERN TID LOR - 2Q24E Earnings to Have Grown YoY but Declined QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by...

Krungthai XSpring

NGERN TID LOR - Earnings Recovery Path

The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings with Lower Credit Costs QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the...

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor Plc. - TIDLOR Announces Shareholding and Management Restructuring Plans

TIDLOR has announced a planned restructuring of its shareholding and management, which involves establishing a holding company named Tidlor...

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor -1Q24E Net Profit Expected to Grow Both YoY and QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the...

Krungthai XSpring

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