Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

LightStream Research

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nidec is headed into the red due to market disruption in China, restructuring charges and stagflation.</li>
<li>The first two of these factors should be temporary, but the third points to longer term pressure on margins. Competition in EV motors is another problem that won't go away.</li>
<li>In a weak economy characterized by stagflation, it is too early to turn bullish.</li>
</ul>

Mark Chadwick

Japan Specialist

<ul>
<li>Nidec slashed its full year operating profit guidance by 48% to 110 billion yen</li>
<li>For Q3, Nidec reported an operating profit of 28 billion yen (-37% YoY), significantly below street expectations (51 billion)</li>
<li>We remain bullish, expecting cost cutting efforts to ignite a profit recovery next year</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>Nidec has become an auto parts and factory automation company and should be valued as such. At 24x EPS guidance for FY Mar-23, the shares do not look particularly cheap.</li>
<li>1H results were good, but heavy up-front investment in e-axle traction motor systems for electric vehicles points to deferred gratification for shareholders. </li>
<li>Recession is starting to bite, the Yen is up and Japanese interest rates have only started to rise. Be careful when buying for long-term growth.</li>
</ul>

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara (SBM AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> merger; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec (6669 HK)</a>'s Offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/okk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15496:1" rel="noopener">Okk (6205 JP)</a>'s Offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">MinRes (MIN AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest (NWE AU)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>Positive impression of Q2 results: sales +28% YoY beat consensus, OP +16% in-line. </li>
<li>Near term headwinds for the precision motors and appliance businesses, but FX will significantly offset downside risk</li>
<li>We remain bullish on the stock given solid progress in the e-Axle business. We see the division turning a profit next year</li>
</ul>

Japan

No authorization provided.

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp - 6594 JP

Nidec (6594): A V-Shaped Recovery Cannot Be Taken for Granted

It is too early to turn bullish on Nidec. The company will probably return to profit after restructuring, but stagflation and competition in EV...

Scott Foster

Nidec (6594) | Down but Not Out

Nidec remains a key beneficiary of multiple megatrends: digital transformation, robotics, energy efficiency and decarbonization. We remain bullish...

Mark Chadwick

Nidec (6594 JP): New Valuation Benchmark

It is fashionable to criticize Nidec's business model, but valuation compression is the greater risk. Japanese interest rates have started to rise...

Scott Foster

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: St Barbara/Genesis, Tyro, Yashili, Acotec, Okk Corp/Nidec

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Nidec (6594) | Solid Traction

We remain bullish on the stock given solid progress in the e-Axle business. We see the division turning a profit next year

Mark Chadwick

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