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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><ul><li>High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.</li><li>Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.</li><li>Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices.</li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li> </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div>

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

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<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Weak seasonal demand and decline in prices against the backdrop of high input costs would mean muted realizations</li><li>The trend in cement pricing has been discouraging so far.</li><li>The news regarding CCI’s investigation on cement companies might be a factor for subdued pricing.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Weak seasonal demand and decline in prices against the backdrop of high input costs would mean muted realizationsThe trend in cement pricing has been discouraging so far.The news regarding CCI’s investigation on cement companies might be a factor for subdued pricing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Sector - Elevated Energy Costs to Weigh on Margins

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 performance: Nuvoco has reported extremely good set of numbers given the challenging environment with EBITDA of Rs4.25bn against our expectation of Rs3.8bn.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Capex update: Nuvoco plans to augment its cement volume by ~2.4mn mt from both north and east regions.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Outlook: Given the increased competition in the eastern region post recent capex by various companies, it will be challenging for Nuvoco to sustain this performance.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

4QFY22 performance: Nuvoco has reported extremely good set of numbers given the challenging environment with EBITDA of Rs4.25bn against our expectation of Rs3.8bn.Capex update: Nuvoco plans to augment its cement volume by ~2.4mn mt from both north and east regions.Outlook: Given the increased competition in the eastern region post recent capex by various companies, it will be challenging for Nuvoco to sustain this performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd - Good Results Amid Challenging Environment

<div><div><div><ul><li>JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).</li></ul><div><div><ul><li>The Ramco Cements: We maintain ADD on The Ramco Cements (TRCL), with a revised target price of INR 745/share (13x Mar-24E EBITDA).</li><li>Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain BUY on Nuvoco Vistas, with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (11x its consolidated Mar-24E EBITDA).</li></ul><div><div><div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).The Ramco Cements: We maintain ADD on The Ramco Cements (TRCL), with a revised target price of INR 745/share (13x Mar-24E EBITDA).Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain BUY on Nuvoco Vistas, with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (11x its consolidated Mar-24E EBITDA).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, The Ramco Cements, Nuvoco Vistas, Heidelberg Cement, Karur Vysya Bank

India

Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Limited provides construction materials. The Company offers cement, ready mix concrete, and aggregates. Nuvoco Vistas serves customers in India.

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Nuvoco Vistas (NUVOCO IN)

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.

HDFC Securities

Cement Sector - Elevated Energy Costs to Weigh on Margins

1QFY23 earnings for the cement sector will be muted as we expect margin pressure to continue in the near term due to higher operating costs,...

Nirmal Bang

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

We are turning ‘neutral’ on the cement sector as we believe that there are multiple headwinds, which will inhibit earnings growth and in turn lead...

Nirmal Bang

Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd - Good Results Amid Challenging Environment

Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd (Nuvoco) has reported good set of results for 4QFY22, with EBITDA coming in at Rs4.25bn (up 87% QoQ) against our...

Nirmal Bang

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, The Ramco Cements, Nuvoco Vistas, Heidelberg Cement, Karur Vysya Bank

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).

HDFC Securities

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