Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.</li>
<li>China's platform companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> have released their own AI models.</li>
<li>As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.
China's platform companies like Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) , Tencent (700 HK) , Baidu (9888 HK) , and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) have released their own AI models.
As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.


DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks, Speedwell Research

The Synopsis

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks

Speedwell Research

Speedwell Research spends hundreds of hours researching public businesses each month and in "The Synopsis" they share their key learnings. Most business podcasts are superficial and assume their listeners are unsophisticated. In contrast, The Synopsis trusts listeners are interested in learning about complex, industry-specific issues, so long as they are explained clearly. We cover businesses from inception to current day, coupling business analysis and an investors lens. Start listening today to become a better analyst and investor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Perimeter had a strong quarter with revenues up 28% year over year to 163 million, driven by growth in both their fire safety and specialty products segments</li><li>EBITDA growth was even stronger at 91 million, with the Fire Safety segment enjoying a 98% incremental margin, showing operating leverage and operational efficiency</li><li>Perimeter's acquisition strategy and diversification into new platforms are helping to offset the impact of wildfires on their business, with promising growth potential for the future.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Perimeter had a strong quarter with revenues up 28% year over year to 163 million, driven by growth in both their fire safety and specialty products segmentsEBITDA growth was even stronger at 91 million, with the Fire Safety segment enjoying a 98% incremental margin, showing operating leverage and operational efficiencyPerimeter's acquisition strategy and diversification into new platforms are helping to offset the impact of wildfires on their business, with promising growth potential for the future.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Dialogue. Perimeter, CSU, and Copart Update + Nvidia GPU Risks and Fed Rate History

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Why does <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”? </li>
<li>From <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.  </li>
<li>Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?  </li>
</ul>


Why does Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”? 
From Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.  
Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?  


Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest impact passive sell. </li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell. 
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron (CVX)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

China's large tech firms made announcements about their AI chip advancements igniting a market rally. This shows China's efforts to develop...

David Mudd

Dialogue. Perimeter, CSU, and Copart Update + Nvidia GPU Risks and Fed Rate History

Drew provides a concise summary of important news and events, including discussion on Nvidia, Speedwell Research report on interest rates, book...

The Synopsis

Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

Intel's CFO plans to use TSMC long-term, as TSMC avoids competition with customers. The future adoption of Intel's 14A technology is uncertain.

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

China's large tech firms made announcements about their AI chip advancements igniting a market rally. This shows China's efforts to develop...

David Mudd

Dialogue. Perimeter, CSU, and Copart Update + Nvidia GPU Risks and Fed Rate History

Drew provides a concise summary of important news and events, including discussion on Nvidia, Speedwell Research report on interest rates, book...

The Synopsis

Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

​Intel's CFO plans to use TSMC long-term, as TSMC avoids competition with customers. The future adoption of Intel's 14A technology is uncertain.

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Intel's CFO plans to use TSMC long-term, as TSMC avoids competition with customers. The future adoption of Intel's 14A technology is uncertain.