Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>There is speculation that the cost of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  </li>
<li>In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.</li>
</ul>


There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  
In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.

Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
Global Chip Sales Tick Higher in April, 2026 Growth Forecast Robust — WSTS Forecast Signals Sustained Semiconductor Growth Through 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainty</li>
<li>
National Taiwan University Semiconductor Forum Highlights — Edge AI and Robotics The Next Major Demand Catalyst... AI Still in Its Early Phase</li>
<li>
Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review — Tariff &amp; Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook</li>
</ul>



Global Chip Sales Tick Higher in April, 2026 Growth Forecast Robust — WSTS Forecast Signals Sustained Semiconductor Growth Through 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainty

National Taiwan University Semiconductor Forum Highlights — Edge AI and Robotics The Next Major Demand Catalyst... AI Still in Its Early Phase

Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review —  Tariff &amp; Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook


Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan's Next Driver; Memory 1Q25

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.</li>
<li>Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.</li>
<li>Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.</li>
</ul>


2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.
Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.
Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.


AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Micron is doing very well lately, mainly from its position in HBM, and this is likely to be a key positive factor in their upcoming June 25 earnings call</li>
<li>Hyperscaler CapEx has slowed, but the CapEx share of revenues continues to rise, indicating speculation that AI growth will come</li>
<li>Despite the above, Nvidia revenues have continued to grow, which is a positive indication for HBM sales</li>
</ul>


Micron is doing very well lately, mainly from its position in HBM, and this is likely to be a key positive factor in their upcoming June 25 earnings call
Hyperscaler CapEx has slowed, but the CapEx share of revenues continues to rise, indicating speculation that AI growth will come
Despite the above, Nvidia revenues have continued to grow, which is a positive indication for HBM sales


Micron Upcoming Earnings Vs.Hyperscaler CapEx Slowdown

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

Speculation the cost of 1.4nm wafers from TSMC is over 30% higher than 2nm wafers, reflecting the trend of higher costs. Apple's iPhones benefit...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan's Next Driver; Memory 1Q25

Global chip sales are on the rise, with a strong growth forecast through 2026 despite economic uncertainty. Edge AI and robotics are expected to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

Micron Upcoming Earnings Vs.Hyperscaler CapEx Slowdown

Micron's strong position in HBM and Nvidia's continued revenue growth suggest positive outcomes for upcoming earnings calls, despite a slowdown in...

Jim Handy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

​Speculation the cost of 1.4nm wafers from TSMC is over 30% higher than 2nm wafers, reflecting the trend of higher costs. Apple's iPhones benefit...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan's Next Driver; Memory 1Q25

​Global chip sales are on the rise, with a strong growth forecast through 2026 despite economic uncertainty. Edge AI and robotics are expected to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

​AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

Micron Upcoming Earnings Vs.Hyperscaler CapEx Slowdown

​Micron's strong position in HBM and Nvidia's continued revenue growth suggest positive outcomes for upcoming earnings calls, despite a slowdown in...

Jim Handy

Speculation the cost of 1.4nm wafers from TSMC is over 30% higher than 2nm wafers, reflecting the trend of higher costs. Apple's iPhones benefit...

Global chip sales are on the rise, with a strong growth forecast through 2026 despite economic uncertainty. Edge AI and robotics are expected to...

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Micron's strong position in HBM and Nvidia's continued revenue growth suggest positive outcomes for upcoming earnings calls, despite a slowdown in...