Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><a href="https://semianalysis.com/2024/12/11/scaling-laws-o1-pro-architecture-reasoning-training-infrastructure-orion-and-claude-3-5-opus-failures/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Technological model scaling is not dead,</a> but we are clearly at a critical moment when the definitions will shift.</li><li>Pre-training, <a href="https://x.com/fchollet/status/1869051991743439028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the original scaling law</a>, might hit its first diminishing return. The piece SemiAnalysis used the analogy that pre-training was like the end of Dennard’s law.</li><li>However, multi-core scaling led to another decade of scaling transistors. Technology progresses, just not in the same way.</li></ul>

Technological model scaling is not dead, but we are clearly at a critical moment when the definitions will shift.Pre-training, the original scaling law, might hit its first diminishing return. The piece SemiAnalysis used the analogy that pre-training was like the end of Dennard’s law.However, multi-core scaling led to another decade of scaling transistors. Technology progresses, just not in the same way.

Scaling Laws Meet Economics, but Adoption is still Accelerating

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P500 is up 27.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is down 6.9% YTD. Global fund flow continues to pour into top quality US stocks such as Palantir, Tesla, and NVIDIA.</li>
<li>The top 20 best performing stocks in KOSPI 200 are up on average 106.8% YTD. However, the remaining 180 stocks in KOSPI 200 are down on average 9.2% YTD. </li>
<li>There is no large Palantir-like company that deals with AI/data analytics in Korea. However, large cap IT services and telcos in Korea are increasingly expanding their AI/data analytics related business.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P500 is up 27.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is down 6.9% YTD. Global fund flow continues to pour into top quality US stocks such as Palantir, Tesla, and NVIDIA.
The top 20 best performing stocks in KOSPI 200 are up on average 106.8% YTD. However, the remaining 180 stocks in KOSPI 200 are down on average 9.2% YTD. 
There is no large Palantir-like company that deals with AI/data analytics in Korea. However, large cap IT services and telcos in Korea are increasingly expanding their AI/data analytics related business.


A Comparison of KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 Companies Performances in 2024

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-digital-niaga-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34881:1" rel="noopener">Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT (BELI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihh-healthcare-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:876:1" rel="noopener">IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)</a>. </li>
<li>There was also a macro insight on Vietnam as well as an index rebalancing piece from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> on the Vietnamese market. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insight on Indosat (ISAT IJ), Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT (BELI IJ), Singapore Post (SPOST SP), and IHH Healthcare (IHH MK). 
There was also a macro insight on Vietnam as well as an index rebalancing piece from Brian Freitas on the Vietnamese market. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indosat's AI, MAPI's Expansion, and BliBli's Omnichannel

<ul>
<li>A conversation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat (ISAT IJ) </a>managment revealed a stabilisation in the pricing environment following Telkomsel's recent data price hikes and a more positive outlook for 2025 with market consolidation. </li>
<li>2025 will see the four-player market move to a three-player market which should be positive for data pricing following the XL/FREN merger, with ex-Java expansion also potentially boosting ISAT ARPUs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>'s move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp</a>'s GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in 2025. Valuation remains appealing.</li>
</ul>


A conversation with Indosat (ISAT IJ) managment revealed a stabilisation in the pricing environment following Telkomsel's recent data price hikes and a more positive outlook for 2025 with market consolidation. 
2025 will see the four-player market move to a three-player market which should be positive for data pricing following the XL/FREN merger, with ex-Java expansion also potentially boosting ISAT ARPUs. 

Indosat's move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing NVIDIA Corp's GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in 2025. Valuation remains appealing.


Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>There is over US$500m to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management (APO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workday-inc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5660:1" rel="noopener">Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
There is over US$500m to trade in Broadcom (AVGO US), Tesla (TSLA US), Apollo Global Management (APO US), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US). 

Broadcom (AVGO US) swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Scaling Laws Meet Economics, but Adoption is still Accelerating

Technological model scaling is not dead, but we are clearly at a critical moment when the definitions will shift. Pre-training, the original...

Fabricated Knowledge

A Comparison of KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 Companies Performances in 2024

There is no large Palantir-like company that deals with AI/data analytics in Korea. However, large cap IT services and telcos in Korea are...

Douglas Kim

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indosat's AI, MAPI's Expansion, and BliBli's Omnichannel

The past week saw insight on Indosat (ISAT IJ), Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT (BELI IJ), Singapore Post (SPOST SP), and...

Angus Mackintosh

Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist

Indosat's move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing NVIDIA Corp's GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in...

Angus Mackintosh

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

Constituent changes to the SnP500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector and the SnP500 Equal...

Brian Freitas

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