Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextbillion-technology-pvt-ltd-groww" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34787:1" rel="noopener">Groww (1573648D IN)</a> is a wealth management and investment platform designed to simplify investing especially for first-time investors. </li>
<li>Channel feedback indicates Groww's simple UI, and lower cost/fees as the primary reasons for them investing via the platform. </li>
<li>Revenues have seen a COVID-led sharp jump, and growth with low marketing expenses and operational profitability offer a compelling narrative. </li>
</ul>



Groww (1573648D IN) is a wealth management and investment platform designed to simplify investing especially for first-time investors. 
Channel feedback indicates Groww's simple UI, and lower cost/fees as the primary reasons for them investing via the platform. 
Revenues have seen a COVID-led sharp jump, and growth with low marketing expenses and operational profitability offer a compelling narrative. 


Groww Tearsheet - Simplifying Investments and Savings

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Zomato (Zomato IN) raised US$1.3bn in its India IPO in Jul 2021. At that time, it was the largest technology sector listing in India.</li>
<li>Zomato is one of two leading food delivery app operators in India. It recently acquired Blinkit marking its foray into the instant grocery segment.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


Zomato (Zomato IN) raised US$1.3bn in its India IPO in Jul 2021. At that time, it was the largest technology sector listing in India.
Zomato is one of two leading food delivery app operators in India. It recently acquired Blinkit marking its foray into the instant grocery segment.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Zomato IPO Lock-Up - A US$3.4bn Lockup Release Test Case for India

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Z Holdings will integrate its eCommerce platforms in a move that boosts the PayPay brand and may generate some (very) modest synergies</li>
<li>We are publishing updated forecasts and setting a new target price at ¥550 but we remain cautious on the shares in the near term as consensus remains high</li>
<li>Shares of ZHD still appear expensive at 14-16x our estimate of FY22e EBITDA and are more expensive than Alphabet at these levels (12x EBITDA)</li>
</ul>


Z Holdings will integrate its eCommerce platforms in a move that boosts the PayPay brand and may generate some (very) modest synergies
We are publishing updated forecasts and setting a new target price at ¥550 but we remain cautious on the shares in the near term as consensus remains high
Shares of ZHD still appear expensive at 14-16x our estimate of FY22e EBITDA and are more expensive than Alphabet at these levels (12x EBITDA)


Z Holdings (Neutral) - PayPay Rebranding of ECommerce; We Remain Cautious in a Rebuilding Year

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.
We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.
Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.


India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese Internet companies are testing lows from the 2020 tech selloff whilst Rakuten stands out for reaching levels last seen in 2010</li>
<li>Z Holdings is at a two-year low but has fallen the same distance from its recent high (-53%) </li>
<li>Both face robust competition from Amazon, which has doubled its eCommerce GMV in Japan over the last four years (Rakuten +60%, core Z Holdings +47%)</li>
</ul>


Japanese Internet companies are testing lows from the 2020 tech selloff whilst Rakuten stands out for reaching levels last seen in 2010
Z Holdings is at a two-year low but has fallen the same distance from its recent high (-53%) 
Both face robust competition from Amazon, which has doubled its eCommerce GMV in Japan over the last four years (Rakuten +60%, core Z Holdings +47%)


Japan Internet - Fresh Lows for Many with Rakuten the Lowest Since 2010

India

One 97 Communications Limited provides payment solutions. The Company provides online services such as hotel booking, top ups, data processing, games, mobile content, and bill payments. One 97 Communications Limited serves customers worldwide.

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Paytm (PAYTM IN)

Groww Tearsheet - Simplifying Investments and Savings

India Unicorn Series: We profile India's Investment platform "Groww". Encouraging user feedback, growth in spite of tight marketing spends &...

Pranav Bhavsar

Zomato IPO Lock-Up - A US$3.4bn Lockup Release Test Case for India

Zomato raised US$1.3bn in its India IPO in Jul 2021. At that time, it was the largest technology sector listing in India. The lock-up on its pre...

Sumeet Singh

Z Holdings (Neutral) - PayPay Rebranding of ECommerce; We Remain Cautious in a Rebuilding Year

Z Holdings will integrate its two eCommerce platforms but this appears to be more about ambitious growth targets for fintech. We are publishing new...

Kirk Boodry

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

With 9 trading days to go in the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from Mid to Large and 7 stocks moving the other way. 2 new listings will be...

Brian Freitas

Japan Internet - Fresh Lows for Many with Rakuten the Lowest Since 2010

Tech sector weakness amplifies concerns on competition for Rakuten and Z Holdings. Both are down 50%+ from recent highs with Rakuten at levels last...

Kirk Boodry

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