Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).</li>
<li>More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.</li>
<li>We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.</li>
</ul>


Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).
More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.
We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.


Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

In a recently published report (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cop26-u-n-climate-conference-to-address-mitigation-financing-and-carbon-pricing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59779" rel="noopener">COP26: U.N. Climate Conference to Address Mitigation, Financing, and Carbon Pricing</a>) I mentioned how the COP26 international climate conference (31 October to 12 November) will have far-reaching implications for global capital markets and investing.That Insight was largely about the COP26 conference itself – background, objectives, three critical agenda items with trillions of dollars at stake, and that will influence global financial markets from today (headlines coming out of the conference) through the end of this century.That report was necessary context for this Insight and others that will follow; successively deeper dives into country-specific climate action plans, and investment themes and trading ideas around the COP26 conference and climate change in general. This is the first of those follow-up reports.Herein, I present a brief overview of investment themes and angles directly linked to the three key COP26 agenda items: 1) mitigation of global warming, 2) climate finance, and 3) the development of international carbon markets and pricing mechanisms. Themes and subthemes such as:<ul>
<li>
Climate Transition: "Green" utilities, renewable energy, cleantech, electric vehicles and other areas of smart mobility, green buildings, and related. The "buy solar, sell coal" kinds of stuff.</li>
<li>
Climate Financing: Financial sector stocks poised to benefit from climate change mitigation, reduced risk from portfolio debarbonisation, and new inflows into sustainable/ESG funds.</li>
<li>
Carbon Markets: Pure-play (or close thereto) carbon capture and storage/sequestration (CCS) stocks, plus a few financial sector overlaps (e.g., related to carbon markets, futures, etc.)</li>
</ul>

In a recently published report (COP26: U.N. Climate Conference to Address Mitigation, Financing, and Carbon Pricing) I mentioned how the COP26 international climate conference (31 October to 12 November) will have far-reaching implications for global capital markets and investing.That Insight was largely about the COP26 conference itself – background, objectives, three critical agenda items with trillions of dollars at stake, and that will influence global financial markets from today (headlines coming out of the conference) through the end of this century.That report was necessary context for this Insight and others that will follow; successively deeper dives into country-specific climate action plans, and investment themes and trading ideas around the COP26 conference and climate change in general. This is the first of those follow-up reports.Herein, I present a brief overview of investment themes and angles directly linked to the three key COP26 agenda items: 1) mitigation of global warming, 2) climate finance, and 3) the development of international carbon markets and pricing mechanisms. Themes and subthemes such as:

Climate Transition: "Green" utilities, renewable energy, cleantech, electric vehicles and other areas of smart mobility, green buildings, and related. The "buy solar, sell coal" kinds of stuff.

Climate Financing: Financial sector stocks poised to benefit from climate change mitigation, reduced risk from portfolio debarbonisation, and new inflows into sustainable/ESG funds.

Carbon Markets: Pure-play (or close thereto) carbon capture and storage/sequestration (CCS) stocks, plus a few financial sector overlaps (e.g., related to carbon markets, futures, etc.)


COP26: An Overview of Investment Themes and Catalysts Related to COP26 Conference

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Infrastructure Investments Fund, a vehicle advised by J.P. Morgan Investment Management, agreed to buy a 60% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/falck-renewables-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34071:1" rel="noopener">Falck Renewables SpA (FKR IM)</a> from Falck SpA, at €8.81/share. IIF is paying a premium of 29.2% to the 3-month VWAP. Deal authorization will be subject to Italian Government Golden Power, as the energy sector is deemed strategic. 
Deal value (for the 60% stake) is c. €1,529 million; the implied equity value is c. €2,548 million and the implied EV is €3,508 million. Multiples: 8x EV/Fwd revenue, vs. the 6.3x median of previous sector transactions and 7.1x at which comps are trading, 16.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 59.6x Fwd P/E. Interest for renewables is very strong with pension funds investing in both solar and wind farms as well as clean energies projects, which is leading to large M&amp;A premiums.
IIF invests in infrastructure, with a focus on contracted energy assets and utilities. The deal will increase IIF's exposure in the renewable energies since Falck Renewables has exposure to Italy, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and other countries.
Falck Renewables said the stake transaction should complete by end of Q1 2022. Upon closing of the transaction, IIF will launch a mandatory cash tender offer for Falck Renewables’s remaining share capital at €8.81/share, with the intention to delist the company.
Fair valuation (multiples based) is €6.73/share, the level at which the share was trading prior to the deal announcement. On this basis, the premium offered implies a full price, in my view, and the market believes the deal will complete. The deal authorization will be subject to Italian Government Golden Power, as the energy sector is deemed strategic.
On 20 October, Falck Renewables closed 14% higher. Gross spread is an unexciting 1.4% for a mandatory offer that could take up to a year to complete.

Infrastructure Investments Fund, a vehicle advised by J.P. Morgan Investment Management, agreed to buy a 60% stake in Falck Renewables SpA (FKR IM) from Falck SpA, at €8.81/share. IIF is paying a premium of 29.2% to the 3-month VWAP. Deal authorization will be subject to Italian Government Golden Power, as the energy sector is deemed strategic. 
Deal value (for the 60% stake) is c. €1,529 million; the implied equity value is c. €2,548 million and the implied EV is €3,508 million. Multiples: 8x EV/Fwd revenue, vs. the 6.3x median of previous sector transactions and 7.1x at which comps are trading, 16.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 59.6x Fwd P/E. Interest for renewables is very strong with pension funds investing in both solar and wind farms as well as clean energies projects, which is leading to large M&amp;A premiums.
IIF invests in infrastructure, with a focus on contracted energy assets and utilities. The deal will increase IIF's exposure in the renewable energies since Falck Renewables has exposure to Italy, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and other countries.
Falck Renewables said the stake transaction should complete by end of Q1 2022. Upon closing of the transaction, IIF will launch a mandatory cash tender offer for Falck Renewables’s remaining share capital at €8.81/share, with the intention to delist the company.
Fair valuation (multiples based) is €6.73/share, the level at which the share was trading prior to the deal announcement. On this basis, the premium offered implies a full price, in my view, and the market believes the deal will complete. The deal authorization will be subject to Italian Government Golden Power, as the energy sector is deemed strategic.
On 20 October, Falck Renewables closed 14% higher. Gross spread is an unexciting 1.4% for a mandatory offer that could take up to a year to complete.

IIF/Falck Renewables: Acquisition of Majority Stake

Wisdomtree Japan Hedged Eq / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

On 18 February <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acciona-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21248:1" rel="noopener">Acciona SA (ANA SM)</a> announced it would list 25% of its renewables subsidiary, Acciona Energías Renovables, and would retain control.
On 7 June, the Spanish Securities and Markets Commission (CNMV) approved the registration document for the IPO, exclusively aimed at institutional investors.
<ul>
<li>
The IPO consists of a secondary offering by parent company Acciona SA and will serve as a preliminary step for Acciona Energias Renovables' admission to trading on the Spanish Continuous Market.
</li>
<li>
Press sources point to a value between €10 bn and €12 bn, the largest IPO in the Spanish market since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aena-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21244:1" rel="noopener">Aena SA (AENA SM)</a> in 2015. Acciona plans to place around 25% of the capital (30% if the green shoe is added), for which it could raise between €2.5 and €3 bn.
</li>
<li>
The objective is to have the shares listed on the last week of June.
</li>
</ul>
According to Acciona, the rationale of the spin-off is:
<ul>
<li>
financing its ambitious growth plans in renewables: the IPO will allow to accelerate growth goals. The pre-IPO target was to reach 15,000MW in 2024 from 10,700MW in 2020. Now this target is improved to 20,000MW in 2025. Acciona Energías Renovables, as a pure renewables operator, will seek to maximize its growth potential, with an unrestricted balance sheet with access to a more efficient cost of capital. 
</li>
<li>
Acciona will crystallize the value in the group's fastest growing subsidiary. This subsidiary represents 75% of the group's EBITDA, but Acciona receives little recognition for its renewables business and the high proportion of profits these assets now generate.
</li>
</ul>
I calculate Acciona's fair value by using a DCF (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 5.5%, g 1.5%). I add the value of subsidiaries and apply a 15% holding discount.
Fair value is €172.4/share, 25% upside, although planned growth acceleration for Acciona Energías Renovables, should allow further upward revisions in the parent company target prices.
<ul>
<li>
Acciona's shares trade at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x at which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orsted-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24765:1" rel="noopener">Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC)</a> trades.
</li>
<li>
The valuation of Acciona Energías Renovables includes some €4 bn of financial debt, over 4x EBITDA. Assuming a cautious 20% discount on Orsted, or 13.0x EBITDA, Acciona Energías Renovables would be valued at €12,000 mn euros, 87% of the current market of the entire group.
</li>
<li>
Assuming Acciona nets €3 bn, half of the IPO proceeds, €1.5 bn, together with another €1.5 bn from the syndicated loan (see background section), will significantly lower the net debt (and the WACC) of Acciona parent, thus triggering a re-rating of the shares.
</li>
</ul>
Recommendation long ANA SM, TP €172.4, with possibility of further upside.

On 18 February Acciona SA (ANA SM) announced it would list 25% of its renewables subsidiary, Acciona Energías Renovables, and would retain control.
On 7 June, the Spanish Securities and Markets Commission (CNMV) approved the registration document for the IPO, exclusively aimed at institutional investors.


The IPO consists of a secondary offering by parent company Acciona SA and will serve as a preliminary step for Acciona Energias Renovables' admission to trading on the Spanish Continuous Market.


Press sources point to a value between €10 bn and €12 bn, the largest IPO in the Spanish market since Aena SA (AENA SM) in 2015. Acciona plans to place around 25% of the capital (30% if the green shoe is added), for which it could raise between €2.5 and €3 bn.


The objective is to have the shares listed on the last week of June.


According to Acciona, the rationale of the spin-off is:


financing its ambitious growth plans in renewables: the IPO will allow to accelerate growth goals. The pre-IPO target was to reach 15,000MW in 2024 from 10,700MW in 2020. Now this target is improved to 20,000MW in 2025. Acciona Energías Renovables, as a pure renewables operator, will seek to maximize its growth potential, with an unrestricted balance sheet with access to a more efficient cost of capital. 


Acciona will crystallize the value in the group's fastest growing subsidiary. This subsidiary represents 75% of the group's EBITDA, but Acciona receives little recognition for its renewables business and the high proportion of profits these assets now generate.


I calculate Acciona's fair value by using a DCF (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 5.5%, g 1.5%). I add the value of subsidiaries and apply a 15% holding discount.
Fair value is €172.4/share, 25% upside, although planned growth acceleration for Acciona Energías Renovables, should allow further upward revisions in the parent company target prices.


Acciona's shares trade at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x at which Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC) trades.


The valuation of Acciona Energías Renovables includes some €4 bn of financial debt, over 4x EBITDA. Assuming a cautious 20% discount on Orsted, or 13.0x EBITDA, Acciona Energías Renovables would be valued at €12,000 mn euros, 87% of the current market of the entire group.


Assuming Acciona nets €3 bn, half of the IPO proceeds, €1.5 bn, together with another €1.5 bn from the syndicated loan (see background section), will significantly lower the net debt (and the WACC) of Acciona parent, thus triggering a re-rating of the shares.


Recommendation long ANA SM, TP €172.4, with possibility of further upside.

Denmark

Orsted A/S provides utility services. The Company engages in the development, construction, and operation of offshore wind farms, as well as generates power and heat from power stations. Orsted serves customers worldwide.

Orsted AS (ORSTED DC)

Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities are emerging as leadership -- add exposure. Today we are focusing on...

Vermilion Research

IIF/Falck Renewables: Acquisition of Majority Stake

The premium offered implies a full price. Gross spread is an unexciting 1.4% for a mandatory offer that could take up to a year to complete.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

Spin-Off of Acciona Renewables

Acciona trades at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x for ORSTED DC. IPO should allow value to crystallize and financial debt to be repaid, thus...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities are emerging as leadership -- add exposure. Today we are focusing on...

Vermilion Research

COP26: An Overview of Investment Themes and Catalysts Related to COP26 Conference

COP26, the climate conference happening now, will impact global capital markets. Perhaps over the next two weeks, depending on headlines, but...

Kyle Rudden

IIF/Falck Renewables: Acquisition of Majority Stake

The premium offered implies a full price. Gross spread is an unexciting 1.4% for a mandatory offer that could take up to a year to complete.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

Spin-Off of Acciona Renewables

Acciona trades at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x for ORSTED DC. IPO should allow value to crystallize and financial debt to be repaid, thus...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar