AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

Back in September 2020, amid a boom in SPAC investing that had never been seen before and against the backdrop of profitless companies (and in some cases years from actual revenue generation) being propelled to insane valuations , we published an insight effectively warning investors to be very wary and selective (cf. MergerTalk: SPACs May Have Become The Hot New Trend, But SPAC Investment Requires A Health Warning. Read more: <a href="https://skr.ma/JNmvg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://skr.ma/JNmvg</a> ). The fresh supply of SPAC IPOs in the US keeps on coming -the number of completed SPAC IPOs so far this year has already eclipsed the record total set for all of 2020 by 51% (374 vs 248)  and is well on target to surpass the number of traditional IPOs in the US for the second year running - in  2020, there were a total of 227 traditional IPOs with that number standing at 157 so far this year, well behind SPAC IPOs. In 2020, SPACs raised more cash ($83BN) than the total amount raised  over the preceding 17 years. So far in 2021, the cash raised from SPAC IPOs is already approaching 40% higher than 2021 at $114BN.However, these stats do not disguise the fact that the enthusiasm for SPACs has cooled  since mid-February. A snapshot reflection of this change in mood is the performance of the first 3 SPAC ETFs introduced to the market which began with SPAK at the beginning of October 2020.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/219/878/original/image_45285074321626909062078.png?1626909063" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="219878"></figure>The average size of SPAC IPOs this year is 9% lower at $305MN than last year's ~$336MN. Perhaps more revealing, out of a total of 152 SPACs total that have announced business combinations and are in the process of de-SPACing, 92 (i.e., 61%) are trading below the SPAC IPO price of $10.  Of the 134 SPAC business combinations completed around one half are currently trading above the  SPAC IPO price, and many of those well below their post-merger highs.As our November insight indicates, we have been somewhat skeptical of the SPAC investment space. We believe that much of the SPAC investment frenzy witnessed in the past 18 months has was driven by  thematic interest over the more diligent scrutiny of the business combination.<blockquote>The observation is that not all SPAC mergers are created equal and that the majority are prone to value destruction.  It appears that SPAC investors are most excited about transactions in “emerging” trends such as green mobility or pandemic resistant areas such as online gaming and packaged/healthy foods rather than companies with a solid fundamental track record of revenue generation and profitability.</blockquote>Source: MergerTalk: SPACs May Have Become The Hot New Trend, But SPAC Investment Requires A Health Warning, November 2020We are not suggesting for one moment that SPAC investing is a passing fad. The SPAC investing community is a far cry from the predominantly roulette table retail investors of yesteryear. Yes, the speculative element in SPACs has been very  much in evidence over the past 18 months, but greater involvement from well established institutional investors/sponsors in the most recent SPAC wave and the prospect of more intense regulatory scrutiny following several high profile investment debacles in the past 18 months will hopefully see this investment class evolve towards greater emphasis on quality rather than quantity. As of today there remains a lot of liquidity chasing SPACs with capital searching for deals. As of today there are 305 pending IPOs, 574 active SPACs of which 425  still need to find companies with which to merge.While there is certainly a lot of chaff in the SPAC investment space, there are also hidden gems  to be uncovered. Not uncommon in thematic oriented investments, when in fashion, the rising tide raises all ships, whether seaworthy or not. By the same token, when enthusiasm wanes, even the better quality companies can get caught up in the sell-off. This is more so in an investment category where there is still limited research coverage.  Judging from the job postings we have seen, investment banks  and hedge funds are looking to build out their SPAC research capabilities, but the current dearth of quality sell-side coverage of the 100s of active SPACs creates an opportunity for those willing to put in the required research/due-diligence effort to discover potentially lucrative undervalued  businesses.In this respect,  the simple formula we would follow is to hone in on SPACs with good sponsors backed up by a strong track record, either in the process of executing an Initial Business Combination (IBC) or having recently completed business combination with a company with a fundamentally sound business and strategy, preferably supported by an established operating track record that is already delivering revenues and profitability. There may be a number of other hidden gems to uncover within the SPAC universe, in this insight, we highlight one example of a recently completed business combination which has caught our eye - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alight-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27940:1" rel="noopener">Alight Inc (ALIT US)</a> which we believe ticks all the aforementioned boxes.

Back in September 2020, amid a boom in SPAC investing that had never been seen before and against the backdrop of profitless companies (and in some cases years from actual revenue generation) being propelled to insane valuations , we published an insight effectively warning investors to be very wary and selective (cf. MergerTalk: SPACs May Have Become The Hot New Trend, But SPAC Investment Requires A Health Warning. Read more: https://skr.ma/JNmvg ). The fresh supply of SPAC IPOs in the US keeps on coming -the number of completed SPAC IPOs so far this year has already eclipsed the record total set for all of 2020 by 51% (374 vs 248)  and is well on target to surpass the number of traditional IPOs in the US for the second year running - in  2020, there were a total of 227 traditional IPOs with that number standing at 157 so far this year, well behind SPAC IPOs. In 2020, SPACs raised more cash ($83BN) than the total amount raised  over the preceding 17 years. So far in 2021, the cash raised from SPAC IPOs is already approaching 40% higher than 2021 at $114BN.However, these stats do not disguise the fact that the enthusiasm for SPACs has cooled  since mid-February. A snapshot reflection of this change in mood is the performance of the first 3 SPAC ETFs introduced to the market which began with SPAK at the beginning of October 2020.The average size of SPAC IPOs this year is 9% lower at $305MN than last year's ~$336MN. Perhaps more revealing, out of a total of 152 SPACs total that have announced business combinations and are in the process of de-SPACing, 92 (i.e., 61%) are trading below the SPAC IPO price of $10.  Of the 134 SPAC business combinations completed around one half are currently trading above the  SPAC IPO price, and many of those well below their post-merger highs.As our November insight indicates, we have been somewhat skeptical of the SPAC investment space. We believe that much of the SPAC investment frenzy witnessed in the past 18 months has was driven by  thematic interest over the more diligent scrutiny of the business combination.The observation is that not all SPAC mergers are created equal and that the majority are prone to value destruction.  It appears that SPAC investors are most excited about transactions in “emerging” trends such as green mobility or pandemic resistant areas such as online gaming and packaged/healthy foods rather than companies with a solid fundamental track record of revenue generation and profitability.Source: MergerTalk: SPACs May Have Become The Hot New Trend, But SPAC Investment Requires A Health Warning, November 2020We are not suggesting for one moment that SPAC investing is a passing fad. The SPAC investing community is a far cry from the predominantly roulette table retail investors of yesteryear. Yes, the speculative element in SPACs has been very  much in evidence over the past 18 months, but greater involvement from well established institutional investors/sponsors in the most recent SPAC wave and the prospect of more intense regulatory scrutiny following several high profile investment debacles in the past 18 months will hopefully see this investment class evolve towards greater emphasis on quality rather than quantity. As of today there remains a lot of liquidity chasing SPACs with capital searching for deals. As of today there are 305 pending IPOs, 574 active SPACs of which 425  still need to find companies with which to merge.While there is certainly a lot of chaff in the SPAC investment space, there are also hidden gems  to be uncovered. Not uncommon in thematic oriented investments, when in fashion, the rising tide raises all ships, whether seaworthy or not. By the same token, when enthusiasm wanes, even the better quality companies can get caught up in the sell-off. This is more so in an investment category where there is still limited research coverage.  Judging from the job postings we have seen, investment banks  and hedge funds are looking to build out their SPAC research capabilities, but the current dearth of quality sell-side coverage of the 100s of active SPACs creates an opportunity for those willing to put in the required research/due-diligence effort to discover potentially lucrative undervalued  businesses.In this respect,  the simple formula we would follow is to hone in on SPACs with good sponsors backed up by a strong track record, either in the process of executing an Initial Business Combination (IBC) or having recently completed business combination with a company with a fundamentally sound business and strategy, preferably supported by an established operating track record that is already delivering revenues and profitability. There may be a number of other hidden gems to uncover within the SPAC universe, in this insight, we highlight one example of a recently completed business combination which has caught our eye - Alight Inc (ALIT US) which we believe ticks all the aforementioned boxes.

SPACTalk: Shining ALIGHT On The Process Of Separating the Wheat From The Chaff In The SPAC Space

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst &amp; Young were unable to confirm the existence of EUR 1.9 bn (USD 2.1 bn) in cash (representing about 25% of consolidated cash held on balance  sheet) held in trust accounts purportedly held in two Asian banks since 2019. There have also been media reports which suggested that Wirecard's available cash is only EUR 220 mn;* Starting To Come Clean:Wirecard indicated that:There is evidence of "spurious balance confirmations" to "deceive the auditor"; up to EUR 2 bn in drawn lending lines which could be terminated if Wirecard’s audited results (already delayed 4 times) aren’t published by June 19th; and outgoing COO Marsalek has been suspended while incoming CEO Freis will start immediately; and* Risk Is Seemingly Outstanding to Everyone: The alleged Wirecard fraud has a negative readacross to the following: Softbank (9984.JP); Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX); Commerzbank (CBK.GY); Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY); ABN Amro (ABN.NA); ING Groep (INGA.NA); LBBW (private); Barclays (BARC.LN); Credit Agricole (ACA.FP); DZ Bank (private); Lloyds (LLOY.LN); Bank of China (3988.HK); Citibank (C.US); MUFG (8306.JP); Raiffeisen (RBI.AV); Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK); BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) and the Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI.PM).

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst &amp; Young were unable to confirm the existence of EUR 1.9 bn (USD 2.1 bn) in cash (representing about 25% of consolidated cash held on balance  sheet) held in trust accounts purportedly held in two Asian banks since 2019. There have also been media reports which suggested that Wirecard's available cash is only EUR 220 mn;* Starting To Come Clean:Wirecard indicated that:There is evidence of "spurious balance confirmations" to "deceive the auditor"; up to EUR 2 bn in drawn lending lines which could be terminated if Wirecard’s audited results (already delayed 4 times) aren’t published by June 19th; and outgoing COO Marsalek has been suspended while incoming CEO Freis will start immediately; and* Risk Is Seemingly Outstanding to Everyone: The alleged Wirecard fraud has a negative readacross to the following: Softbank (9984.JP); Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX); Commerzbank (CBK.GY); Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY); ABN Amro (ABN.NA); ING Groep (INGA.NA); LBBW (private); Barclays (BARC.LN); Credit Agricole (ACA.FP); DZ Bank (private); Lloyds (LLOY.LN); Bank of China (3988.HK); Citibank (C.US); MUFG (8306.JP); Raiffeisen (RBI.AV); Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK); BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) and the Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI.PM).

United Kingdom

Paysafe Group Plc delivers a full suite of payment solutions. The Company offers payment processing, digital wallets, e-cash, mobile engagement, and card solutions. Paysafe Group serves customers in the United Kingdom.

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Paysafe (PAYS LN)

SPACTalk: Shining ALIGHT On The Process Of Separating the Wheat From The Chaff In The SPAC Space

While there is certainly a lot of chaff among SPACs/De-SPACs, there are also hidden gems to be discovered. We believe the recently completed De...

Robert Sassoon

Wirecard – Yolk’s On Everyone

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst...

Thomas J. Monaco

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