Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>India's Credit Landscape has changed and is facing structural and regulatory challenges.</li>
<li>The Indian regulator (RBI), particularly in its oversight of underwriting practices and the behavior of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), is commendably proactive, positioning it ahead of the curve.</li>
<li>We expect more such steps in other parts of the credit funnel. The recent crack down along with the stock underperformance is here to stay and possibility intensify. </li>
</ul>


India's Credit Landscape has changed and is facing structural and regulatory challenges.
The Indian regulator (RBI), particularly in its oversight of underwriting practices and the behavior of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), is commendably proactive, positioning it ahead of the curve.
We expect more such steps in other parts of the credit funnel. The recent crack down along with the stock underperformance is here to stay and possibility intensify. 


Trouble in Paradise | India Credit Landscape & Wrath of the Regulator

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>AntFin is looking to raise around US$350m by selling around 2% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Ant just came out of lockup from the previous selldown a few days ago.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


AntFin is looking to raise around US$350m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN).
Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Ant just came out of lockup from the previous selldown a few days ago.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Zomato Placement - Momentum Is Very Strong, Somewhat Well Flagged

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric</a> is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.</li>
<li>In our previous note we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Ola Electric is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
In our previous note we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


Ola Electric Pre-IPO Peer Comparison - Increasing Competition, but It’s Still the Leader

Union Bank Of India / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$370m (INR30bn) via its QIP.</li>
<li>The company last undertook a QIP in Aug 2023, which we covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/union-bank-of-india-qip-well-flagged-deal-recent-momentum-has-been-strong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:110979" rel="noopener">Union Bank of India QIP - Well-Flagged Deal, Recent Momentum Has Been Strong</a>.</li>
<li>This deal too is a very well flagged one, with the firm having earlier reported that it would look to do a QIP to boost its free float and capital.</li>
</ul>



Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) is looking to raise up to US$370m (INR30bn) via its QIP.
The company last undertook a QIP in Aug 2023, which we covered in Union Bank of India QIP - Well-Flagged Deal, Recent Momentum Has Been Strong.
This deal too is a very well flagged one, with the firm having earlier reported that it would look to do a QIP to boost its free float and capital.


Union Bank of India QIP - Well-Flagged and Just in Time for Index Inclusion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.</li>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.</li>
</ul>


There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.
The review period for the March rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.
There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

India

One 97 Communications Limited provides payment solutions. The Company provides online services such as hotel booking, top ups, data processing, games, mobile content, and bill payments. One 97 Communications Limited serves customers worldwide.

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Paytm (PAYTM IN)

Trouble in Paradise | India Credit Landscape & Wrath of the Regulator

India's credit landscape is evolving with regulatory challenges, but the RBI's proactive oversight of NBFCs sets it ahead of the curve, with more...

Pranav Bhavsar

Zomato Placement - Momentum Is Very Strong, Somewhat Well Flagged

AntFin is looking to raise around US$350m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Ola Electric Pre-IPO Peer Comparison - Increasing Competition, but It’s Still the Leader

Ola Electric is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

Union Bank of India QIP - Well-Flagged and Just in Time for Index Inclusion

Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) is looking to raise up to US$370m (INR30bn) via its QIP. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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Trouble in Paradise | India Credit Landscape & Wrath of the Regulator

​India's credit landscape is evolving with regulatory challenges, but the RBI's proactive oversight of NBFCs sets it ahead of the curve, with more...

Pranav Bhavsar

Zomato Placement - Momentum Is Very Strong, Somewhat Well Flagged

AntFin is looking to raise around US$350m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Ola Electric Pre-IPO Peer Comparison - Increasing Competition, but It’s Still the Leader

Ola Electric is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

Union Bank of India QIP - Well-Flagged and Just in Time for Index Inclusion

Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) is looking to raise up to US$370m (INR30bn) via its QIP. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

India's credit landscape is evolving with regulatory challenges, but the RBI's proactive oversight of NBFCs sets it ahead of the curve, with more...