Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

The US government's Energy Information Administration just turned even more bullish with its prediction on tight oil production from the country's shale plays. That is surprising because the agency's oil output forecasts have been criticised as overly optimistic by some prominent industry veterans since last year. The crude futures markets have been discounting the optimistic growth projections for several months now, resisting a bearish tilt from the spectre of booming US supplies. US crude production, two-thirds of which comes from the shale basins, is expected to spike by 1.38 million b/d -- the highest year-on-year growth in its history -- to average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, the EIA said in its latest monthly Short Term Energy Outlook released March 6. The February forecast had pegged the growth at 1.3 million b/d.Shale was the centre of attention during CERAWeek, a major annual oil industry event in Houston, Texas, over March 5-9. OPEC officials and energy ministers were in town for dialogue with the shale producers in an effort to understand their plans and prospects. Silicon Valley heavyweights such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> were in attendance, among others, for a special session on innovation and technology, a nod to the cutting-edge technologies and data analytics being deployed by the shale producers. US shale industry veterans such as Mark Papa and Harold Hamm, however, continue to disagree with the shale boom narrative: US oil production growth is likely to be moderate, falling short of the most optimistic projections, according to them. Papa founded shale producer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11153" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11153:1">Eog Resources Inc (EOG US)</a> and is now at the helm of newcomer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26442" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26442:1">Centennial Resource Develo-A (CDEV US)</a>. Hamm pioneered the development of the Bakken Basin in North Dakota and now heads up EOG Resources. What do they know that the shale growth optimists don't?We analysed the plans, prospects and challenges in the US shale sector from information shared in the producing companies' quarterly reports (Q4 2017), analyst calls, industry presentations and senior executives' public comments to conclude that the spectacular growth as projected by the EIA is far from certain. Our base-case, what we would call a business-as-usual scenario as far as shale is concerned, is for an annual growth of 600-800,000 b/d in 2018. More towards the lower end of that range.

The US government's Energy Information Administration just turned even more bullish with its prediction on tight oil production from the country's shale plays. That is surprising because the agency's oil output forecasts have been criticised as overly optimistic by some prominent industry veterans since last year. The crude futures markets have been discounting the optimistic growth projections for several months now, resisting a bearish tilt from the spectre of booming US supplies. US crude production, two-thirds of which comes from the shale basins, is expected to spike by 1.38 million b/d -- the highest year-on-year growth in its history -- to average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, the EIA said in its latest monthly Short Term Energy Outlook released March 6. The February forecast had pegged the growth at 1.3 million b/d.Shale was the centre of attention during CERAWeek, a major annual oil industry event in Houston, Texas, over March 5-9. OPEC officials and energy ministers were in town for dialogue with the shale producers in an effort to understand their plans and prospects. Silicon Valley heavyweights such as Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) were in attendance, among others, for a special session on innovation and technology, a nod to the cutting-edge technologies and data analytics being deployed by the shale producers. US shale industry veterans such as Mark Papa and Harold Hamm, however, continue to disagree with the shale boom narrative: US oil production growth is likely to be moderate, falling short of the most optimistic projections, according to them. Papa founded shale producer Eog Resources Inc (EOG US) and is now at the helm of newcomer Centennial Resource Develo-A (CDEV US). Hamm pioneered the development of the Bakken Basin in North Dakota and now heads up EOG Resources. What do they know that the shale growth optimists don't?We analysed the plans, prospects and challenges in the US shale sector from information shared in the producing companies' quarterly reports (Q4 2017), analyst calls, industry presentations and senior executives' public comments to conclude that the spectacular growth as projected by the EIA is far from certain. Our base-case, what we would call a business-as-usual scenario as far as shale is concerned, is for an annual growth of 600-800,000 b/d in 2018. More towards the lower end of that range.

US Shale: Boom or BAU? The Latter, Most Likely!

United States

Permian Resources Corporation operates as an oil and gas company. The Company focuses on the development of unconventional oil and associated liquid-rich natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin, as well as offers geology, engineering, and drilling services. Permian Resources serves customers in the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Permian Resources (PR US)

US Shale: Boom or BAU? The Latter, Most Likely!

The US government's Energy Information Administration just turned even more bullish with its prediction on tight oil production from the country's...

Vandana Hari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)