Lead Equity Research Analyst

Sameer Merchant, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Pinduoduo (PDD) has fast become the quintessential disruptor, pioneering a new social form of e-commerce, now imitated by incumbents. Fronted by its pioneering team purchase model and supported by WeChat app integration, Pinduoduo has recorded impressive revenue CAGR of 217% (excl. merchandise) over the past three years to become the largest e-commerce player in China by number of users (788m in 2020 vs Alibaba’s 779m) and third largest by GMV. However, the recent departure of Chairman and founder, Colin Huan pushed share prices down 12%, overshadowing its Q4 2020 earnings beat.We see PDD as one of the best-in-class tech companies in China benefitting from its strong industry positioning, best-in-class growth prospects, a pioneering business model and exceptional management, spearheaded by CEO, Lei Chen, who given his long track-record of working with Colin Huang is a plug and play substitute for the departing Chairman.      The avant-garde turns disruptor: Much of the success of PDD can be attributed to its pioneering team purchase platform, built to thrive on the WeChat app. In the same vein, it was also the first of its kind to build the Customer to Merchants business model, allowing manufacturers to cut out the middlemen and sell directly to customers. It has also brought to market several products to drive customer engagement such as gaming. PDD dominates the e-commerce space in rural China given its roots in agricultural e-commerce and is investing heavily to roll out its in-house agricultural logistics network, which if done well will be its key differentiator.Multitude of drivers lends us confidence in its growth trajectory: We expect PDD's number of users to grow @14% CAGR over the next three years driven primarily by the ongoing penetration of WeChat users. Even though the diffusion rate of PDD into WeChat users has increased from 14% in 2017 to 59% in 2020, we see significant room for growth over the next three years. Moreover, PDDs ARPU is significantly lower than peers and one we see as a significant driver of growth for the young tech company. Management is focused on increasing both higher Average Selling Prices and increasing order frequency to drive revenue growth.New regulations heighten competitive intensity: New anti-trust regulations published in February and aimed to tackle monopolistic behaviours have already fined multiple internet players including PDD. Whilst some regulations such as exclusivity of merchants will benefit PDD, others such as curtailing price incentives will likely impinge future growth prospects. Also, the new regulations bars social media platforms and live video streaming websites to block third party e-commerce sellers which we understand will allow PDD to launch its app on rival’s apps such as Douyin (TikTok) but will also increase competition on native apps such as WeChat.Departing Chairman adds to PDD’s risk profile: In its FY 2020 earnings release, PDD announced that its Founder and Chairman, Colin Huang will be stepping down from the Board. Current CEO, Chen Lei, who replaced Colin as CEO last July, will now also become Chairman. We see the fundamentals of the business unchanged and continue to monitor the performance of the new CEO who worked on a number of start-ups with Colin before setting up PDD. Even though Colin Huang has stepped down from the business he will continue to work with PDD in agricultural research.

Pinduoduo (PDD) has fast become the quintessential disruptor, pioneering a new social form of e-commerce, now imitated by incumbents. Fronted by its pioneering team purchase model and supported by WeChat app integration, Pinduoduo has recorded impressive revenue CAGR of 217% (excl. merchandise) over the past three years to become the largest e-commerce player in China by number of users (788m in 2020 vs Alibaba’s 779m) and third largest by GMV. However, the recent departure of Chairman and founder, Colin Huan pushed share prices down 12%, overshadowing its Q4 2020 earnings beat.We see PDD as one of the best-in-class tech companies in China benefitting from its strong industry positioning, best-in-class growth prospects, a pioneering business model and exceptional management, spearheaded by CEO, Lei Chen, who given his long track-record of working with Colin Huang is a plug and play substitute for the departing Chairman.      The avant-garde turns disruptor: Much of the success of PDD can be attributed to its pioneering team purchase platform, built to thrive on the WeChat app. In the same vein, it was also the first of its kind to build the Customer to Merchants business model, allowing manufacturers to cut out the middlemen and sell directly to customers. It has also brought to market several products to drive customer engagement such as gaming. PDD dominates the e-commerce space in rural China given its roots in agricultural e-commerce and is investing heavily to roll out its in-house agricultural logistics network, which if done well will be its key differentiator.Multitude of drivers lends us confidence in its growth trajectory: We expect PDD's number of users to grow @14% CAGR over the next three years driven primarily by the ongoing penetration of WeChat users. Even though the diffusion rate of PDD into WeChat users has increased from 14% in 2017 to 59% in 2020, we see significant room for growth over the next three years. Moreover, PDDs ARPU is significantly lower than peers and one we see as a significant driver of growth for the young tech company. Management is focused on increasing both higher Average Selling Prices and increasing order frequency to drive revenue growth.New regulations heighten competitive intensity: New anti-trust regulations published in February and aimed to tackle monopolistic behaviours have already fined multiple internet players including PDD. Whilst some regulations such as exclusivity of merchants will benefit PDD, others such as curtailing price incentives will likely impinge future growth prospects. Also, the new regulations bars social media platforms and live video streaming websites to block third party e-commerce sellers which we understand will allow PDD to launch its app on rival’s apps such as Douyin (TikTok) but will also increase competition on native apps such as WeChat.Departing Chairman adds to PDD’s risk profile: In its FY 2020 earnings release, PDD announced that its Founder and Chairman, Colin Huang will be stepping down from the Board. Current CEO, Chen Lei, who replaced Colin as CEO last July, will now also become Chairman. We see the fundamentals of the business unchanged and continue to monitor the performance of the new CEO who worked on a number of start-ups with Colin before setting up PDD. Even though Colin Huang has stepped down from the business he will continue to work with PDD in agricultural research.

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Time to Shine for the Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Initiating Coverage

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> raised around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baidu-secondary-listing-early-look-will-be-one-of-the-largest-secondary-listings-this-year" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baidu Secondary Listing Early Look - Will Be One of the Largest Secondary Listings This Year</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baidu-secondary-listing-smaller-than-expected-doing-the-bare-minimum" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baidu Secondary Listing - Smaller than Expected, Doing the Bare Minimum</a>.In this note, we'll talk about the trading dynamics.

Baidu (BIDU US) raised around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, Baidu Secondary Listing Early Look - Will Be One of the Largest Secondary Listings This Year and Baidu Secondary Listing - Smaller than Expected, Doing the Bare Minimum.In this note, we'll talk about the trading dynamics.

Baidu Secondary Listing Trading - Strong Demand but Weak Price Action

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul class="">
<li>The U.S. court suspended the investment ban on Xiaomi.</li>
<li>For the first two months of 2021, China express parcels increased by 100.3% over 2020 and 80% over 2019.</li>
<li>The founder of Pinduoduo (PDD), Colin Huang, resigned as chairman of board.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. court suspended the investment ban on Xiaomi.
For the first two months of 2021, China express parcels increased by 100.3% over 2020 and 80% over 2019.
The founder of Pinduoduo (PDD), Colin Huang, resigned as chairman of board.


China Internet Weekly (Mar 22): U.S. Ban on Xiaomi Lifted, PDD Chair Resigned, China Parcels Up 100%

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*CBA’s Foray Into BNPL Adds Pressure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] FY 1H21 Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) operating results have turned the corner and are close to break-even, by our calculation. The competition is noticing Afterpay’s performance.  Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU) [CBA] has announced its own BNPL product beginning June 2021 which will pressure Afterpay in its home market; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 390% over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*CBA’s Foray Into BNPL Adds Pressure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] FY 1H21 Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) operating results have turned the corner and are close to break-even, by our calculation. The competition is noticing Afterpay’s performance.  Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU) [CBA] has announced its own BNPL product beginning June 2021 which will pressure Afterpay in its home market; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 390% over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways. 

Tencent Holdings – Replication Is Flattery

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.  Companies mentioned this week:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.  Companies mentioned this week:Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK). Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK), Naver Corp (035420 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Pinduoduo (PDD US)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 19 March 2021

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Time to Shine for the Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Initiating Coverage

Pinduoduo - Recent departure of Chairman has weighed on shares. We see the growth story fundamentally intact and Chen Lei as an ideal plug and play...

Sameer Merchant, CFA

Baidu Secondary Listing Trading - Strong Demand but Weak Price Action

Baidu (BIDU US) raised around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we'll talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

China Internet Weekly (Mar 22): U.S. Ban on Xiaomi Lifted, PDD Chair Resigned, China Parcels Up 100%

U.S. court suspended the investment ban on Xiaomi. For January and February, China express parcels increased by 80% over 2019.The founder of...

Ming Lu

Tencent Holdings – Replication Is Flattery

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent’s Afterpay BNPL performance is turning heads. Commonwealth Bank of Australia has announced its own BNPL product which...

Thomas J. Monaco

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 19 March 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

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