Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waterdrop-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33018:1" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Inc (WDH US)</a>, a technology platform for insurance and healthcare services in China, aims to raise up to US$360m in its US IPO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> owned 22.1% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiss-re-ag-1f83dcbc-730e-46fa-82f2-bfe7e8e361a1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27914:1" rel="noopener">Swiss Re AG (SREN SW)</a> owned 5.7% of the company prior to its listing.</p></div><div><p>In our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/waterdrop-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-strong-backers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Strong Backers</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/waterdrop-pre-ipo-the-negatives-scandals-shutdowns-competing-with-giants-regulation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Scandals, Shutdowns, Competing with Giants, Regulation</a> we spoke about the positive and negative aspects of the deal. </p></div><div><p>In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.</p></div>

Waterdrop Inc (WDH US), a technology platform for insurance and healthcare services in China, aims to raise up to US$360m in its US IPO. Tencent Holdings (700 HK) owned 22.1% and Swiss Re AG (SREN SW) owned 5.7% of the company prior to its listing.In our previous note, Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Strong Backers, and Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Scandals, Shutdowns, Competing with Giants, Regulation we spoke about the positive and negative aspects of the deal. In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.

Waterdrop IPO - Valuation Has Nearly Tripled over the past Year

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*Pointless Shenzhen Deal: </em></strong>Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] has announced that it has agreed to invest CNY 37-51 bn in a restructured Founder Group, an unlisted mainland Chinese-controlled conglomerate. Under the proposal, Ping An will have own between 51.1%-70% of a newly formed entity called New Founder Group; and</p><p><strong><em>*Enough On Its Plate: </em></strong>In our view, Ping An has far too much on its plate to worry about than purchasing another company’s mess. There are weak fundamentals at Ping An Life, poor profit metrics at Ping An Property &amp; Casualty; and weak fundamentals at Ping An Bank. There are just so many IPOs and secondaries that Ping An can do with its FinTech investments to offset the insurer’s poor performance.</p>

*Pointless Shenzhen Deal: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] has announced that it has agreed to invest CNY 37-51 bn in a restructured Founder Group, an unlisted mainland Chinese-controlled conglomerate. Under the proposal, Ping An will have own between 51.1%-70% of a newly formed entity called New Founder Group; and*Enough On Its Plate: In our view, Ping An has far too much on its plate to worry about than purchasing another company’s mess. There are weak fundamentals at Ping An Life, poor profit metrics at Ping An Property &amp; Casualty; and weak fundamentals at Ping An Bank. There are just so many IPOs and secondaries that Ping An can do with its FinTech investments to offset the insurer’s poor performance.

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>*<strong><em>Improving Profitability: </em></strong>PICC Group (1339.HK) [People’s] reported 1Q21 net profit after tax of CNY 10.0 bn, increasing by a whopping CNY 8.7 bn mn (6.7x) on a linked quarter basis. The linked quarter improvement can be attributed both to the PICC Life and PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) whose bottom-line’s improved CNY 4.4 bn (vs a loss of CNY 1.8 bn in 4Q20) and CNY 3.8 bn (156.3%) - accounting for 61% and 27% of the group's earnings;  and </p><p><strong><em>*PICC P&amp;C Posts Big Expense Improvement: </em></strong>PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) reported a 1Q21 net profit of CNY 8.9 bn, increasing 156.3% linked quarter. The overall combined ratio declined from 101.3% in 4Q20 to 95.7%. Compositionally, the overall expense ratio decreased 650 bp linked quarter to 25.4%, while the loss ratio increased 90 bp to 70.3%, reflecting a change in auto insurer’s cost structure after implementing pricing reforms. </p>

*Improving Profitability: PICC Group (1339.HK) [People’s] reported 1Q21 net profit after tax of CNY 10.0 bn, increasing by a whopping CNY 8.7 bn mn (6.7x) on a linked quarter basis. The linked quarter improvement can be attributed both to the PICC Life and PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) whose bottom-line’s improved CNY 4.4 bn (vs a loss of CNY 1.8 bn in 4Q20) and CNY 3.8 bn (156.3%) - accounting for 61% and 27% of the group's earnings;  and *PICC P&amp;C Posts Big Expense Improvement: PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) reported a 1Q21 net profit of CNY 8.9 bn, increasing 156.3% linked quarter. The overall combined ratio declined from 101.3% in 4Q20 to 95.7%. Compositionally, the overall expense ratio decreased 650 bp linked quarter to 25.4%, while the loss ratio increased 90 bp to 70.3%, reflecting a change in auto insurer’s cost structure after implementing pricing reforms. 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Financials, Industrials, and Information Technology sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daito-trust-construct-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10503:1" rel="noopener">Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE Holdings (5411 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-fudosan-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8355:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-i-s-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19311:1" rel="noopener">H I S Co Ltd (9603 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euglena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8414:1" rel="noopener">Euglena Co Ltd (2931 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Industrials sector.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> during the week while decreasing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>. The short sell ban has ended today and short selling will be permitted on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> constituents from Monday, 3 May.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-development-financial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13818:1" rel="noopener">China Development Financial (2883 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-lihwa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17142:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Lihwa (1605 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/compal-electronics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4620:1" rel="noopener">Compal Electronics (2324 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">AU Optronics (2409 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asmedia-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15732:1" rel="noopener">Asmedia Technology (5269 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK), WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK). Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Financials, Industrials, and Information Technology sectors.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP), JFE Holdings (5411 JP) and Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP) while shorts decreased on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Ana Holdings (9202 JP), H I S Co Ltd (9603 JP), Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) and Euglena Co Ltd (2931 JP). Shorts increased in the Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Industrials sector.In Korea, shorts increased on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) during the week while decreasing on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) and Doosan Infracore (042670 KS). The short sell ban has ended today and short selling will be permitted on Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) constituents from Monday, 3 May.Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were China Development Financial (2883 TT), Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Walsin Lihwa (1605 TT) and Compal Electronics (2324 TT) while shorts were covered on AU Optronics (2409 TT), Winbond Electronics (2344 TT), Asmedia Technology (5269 TT), Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT) and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT).

Asia Shorts: Tencent, CM Bank, Wuxi Apptec, Baidu, Anritsu, Daito, Ana, Yang Ming, Evergreen Marine

Insurance, Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance, Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

<ul><li>Three major concerns/questions I'd ask regarding the potential IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waterdrop-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33018:1" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Inc (WDH US)</a>:</li></ul><ol>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waterdrop-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33018:1" rel="noopener"></a><strong>Single monetization channel</strong>: as the company seeks further growth, can it really compete against the distribution channels of the tech and insurance giants in China?</li>
<li>
<strong>Insurance/product development potential</strong>: does the company have the expertise to develop its own products without just having to rely on the distribution channels?</li>
<li>
<strong>Valuation</strong>: if the investment thesis is to ride the growth of healthcare and medical insurance spending in China, isn't it more direct to invest in an online (or even traditional) insurer, which is at a much lower valuation?</li>
</ol>

Three major concerns/questions I'd ask regarding the potential IPO of Waterdrop Inc (WDH US):

Single monetization channel: as the company seeks further growth, can it really compete against the distribution channels of the tech and insurance giants in China?

Insurance/product development potential: does the company have the expertise to develop its own products without just having to rely on the distribution channels?

Valuation: if the investment thesis is to ride the growth of healthcare and medical insurance spending in China, isn't it more direct to invest in an online (or even traditional) insurer, which is at a much lower valuation?


Waterdrop Inc: Can the Water Keep Flowing After Its IPO?

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides products and services through its five ecosystems in financial services, healthcare, auto services, real estate services and Smart City solutions. The Group's insurance business writes property, casualty, and life insurance products.

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Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)

Waterdrop IPO - Valuation Has Nearly Tripled over the past Year

Waterdrop, a technology platform for insurance and healthcare services in China, aims to raise up to US$360m in its US IPO. Tencent owned 22.1% and...

Sumeet Singh

Ping An Insurance - Totally Unnecessary

PING AN INSURANCE: Ping An has announced that it has agreed to invest CNY 37-51 bn in a restructured Founder Group. Ping An will own between 51.1%...

Thomas J. Monaco

PICC Group – Big Print

PICC GROUP: PICC reported QOQ 1Q21 net profit growth of 6.7x, attributed both to the PICC Life and PICC P&C (2328.HK) whose bottom-line’s each...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asia Shorts: Tencent, CM Bank, Wuxi Apptec, Baidu, Anritsu, Daito, Ana, Yang Ming, Evergreen Marine

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Waterdrop Inc: Can the Water Keep Flowing After Its IPO?

Waterdrop Inc is an interesting company with good intentions. But these are the three major concerns one should pay particular attention to when...

Alec Tseung

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