Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is little in the long-term and current figures of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.</li>
<li>Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. </li>
<li>The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. </li>
</ul>


There is little in the long-term and current figures of Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.
Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. 
The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. 


Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asirvad-micro-finance-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40211:1" rel="noopener">Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN)</a> is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial, Kotak, Nomura, SBI Caps.</li>
<li>Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (Asirvad) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC), and a microfinance institution (MFI) offering small loans to low-income women in India.</li>
<li>As per the CRISIL report, Asirvad was the largest MFI in India in terms of geographical coverage and third largest MFI in India in terms of AUM, in FY23.</li>
</ul>



Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN) is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial, Kotak, Nomura, SBI Caps.
Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (Asirvad) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC), and a microfinance institution (MFI) offering small loans to low-income women in India.
As per the CRISIL report, Asirvad was the largest MFI in India in terms of geographical coverage and third largest MFI in India in terms of AUM, in FY23.


Asirvad Micro Finance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Life Insurance  of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LICI has significant 62% market share of new business premiums with 92% coverage of all districts in the country, compared with 72% for all of the private sector combined. </li>
<li>Long track record of operations since 1956 and strong growth, with recent years seeing exceptional strength in net profit, and with ROE reaching 148%. </li>
<li>Well maintained SG&amp;A costs with revenue growth exceeding policy benefits growth, with strong investment returns, especially in FY23. 1Q24 also shows continued operational strength, in a hugely under-penetrated market. </li>
</ul>


LICI has significant 62% market share of new business premiums with 92% coverage of all districts in the country, compared with 72% for all of the private sector combined. 
Long track record of operations since 1956 and strong growth, with recent years seeing exceptional strength in net profit, and with ROE reaching 148%. 
Well maintained SG&amp;A costs with revenue growth exceeding policy benefits growth, with strong investment returns, especially in FY23. 1Q24 also shows continued operational strength, in a hugely under-penetrated market. 


LICI - 62% Mkt Share, Covers 92% of India, 148% ROE, Under-Penetrated, Many Operational Strengths

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 13th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,898.6 million, led by industrials, information technology, and offset by consumer discretionary, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Longi Green, China Tourism, Iflytek, Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 13th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,898.6 million, led by industrials, information technology, and offset by consumer discretionary, health care.
We highlight flows for Longi Green, China Tourism, Iflytek, Ping An Insurance.


Northbound Flows (Oct 13th): Longi Green, China Tourism, Iflytek, Ping An Insurance

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 29th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Wuxi Bio, Xpeng, Mnso, Bidu, Meituan, China Mobile, Baba.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 29th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Wuxi Bio, Xpeng, Mnso, Bidu, Meituan, China Mobile, Baba.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Wuxi Bio, Xpeng, Mnso, Bidu, Meituan, China Mobile, Baba

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

Price Gauge
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Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)

Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

BOC has seen LDR expansion accompanied by narrowing NIM, raising questions on marginal lending. ROE is worsening dramatically, with credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN) is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial,...

Clarence Chu

Northbound Flows (Oct 13th): Longi Green, China Tourism, Iflytek, Ping An Insurance

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Longi Green, China Tourism, Iflytek, Ping An...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Wuxi Bio, Xpeng, Mnso, Bidu, Meituan, China Mobile, Baba

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 29th and highlight short interest changes in Wuxi Bio, Xpeng, Mnso,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

BOC has seen LDR expansion accompanied by narrowing NIM, raising questions on marginal lending. ROE is worsening dramatically, with credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN) is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial,...

Clarence Chu

LICI - 62% Mkt Share, Covers 92% of India, 148% ROE, Under-Penetrated, Many Operational Strengths

LICI has seen strong growth in profit, with costs well contained, and policy revenue and investment income well exceeding policy benefits. High mkt...

Daniel Tabbush

Northbound Flows (Oct 13th): Longi Green, China Tourism, Iflytek, Ping An Insurance

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Longi Green, China Tourism, Iflytek, Ping An...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Wuxi Bio, Xpeng, Mnso, Bidu, Meituan, China Mobile, Baba

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 29th and highlight short interest changes in Wuxi Bio, Xpeng, Mnso,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM