Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday and today, there have been observed cases in Korea that are suspected to be caused by a sudden drop in stock prices due to CFD liquidation trading.</li>
<li>Yesterday it was Celltrion with its two siblings, and today it is Posco DX. I have found candidates that may have similar stock price movements.</li>
<li>These candidates experienced a notable increase in their stock prices from late March to mid-April, and they have a relatively high margin transaction ratio.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday and today, there have been observed cases in Korea that are suspected to be caused by a sudden drop in stock prices due to CFD liquidation trading.
Yesterday it was Celltrion with its two siblings, and today it is Posco DX. I have found candidates that may have similar stock price movements.
These candidates experienced a notable increase in their stock prices from late March to mid-April, and they have a relatively high margin transaction ratio.


CFD Liquidation in Korea: Posco DX, Celltrion Siblings, and Potential Next Targets

<ul>
<li>Lutronic Corp and Jeisys Medical have considerably lower DTV in comparison to their float shares. It is highly probable that they have artificially increased their float shares.</li>
<li>Coincidentally, these two stocks are the ones that have experienced the most dramatic increase in borrow balance after the result announcement.</li>
<li>These two stocks are being targeted for short-selling from a post-event perspective because the market believes they will exhibit abnormal passive (price) impact due to their inflated float shares.</li>
</ul>


Lutronic Corp and Jeisys Medical have considerably lower DTV in comparison to their float shares. It is highly probable that they have artificially increased their float shares.
Coincidentally, these two stocks are the ones that have experienced the most dramatic increase in borrow balance after the result announcement.
These two stocks are being targeted for short-selling from a post-event perspective because the market believes they will exhibit abnormal passive (price) impact due to their inflated float shares.


Two of KS200/KQ150 Additions Are Prime-Targeted for Shorting Due to Their Inflated Float Shares

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 indices constituents changes today. </li>
<li>Kum Yang (001570 KS) and Cosmochemical (005420 KS) were included in the KOSPI 200. Dongwon Industries (006040 KS) and Hwaseung Enterprise (241590 KS) were excluded in KOSPI 200 index.</li>
<li>We expect continued underperformance of Kumyang and Cosmo Chemical as many investors will now start to sell these stocks based on <em>"buy on rumor, sell on news"</em> strategy.</li>
</ul>


Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 indices constituents changes today. 
Kum Yang (001570 KS) and Cosmochemical (005420 KS) were included in the KOSPI 200. Dongwon Industries (006040 KS) and Hwaseung Enterprise (241590 KS) were excluded in KOSPI 200 index.
We expect continued underperformance of Kumyang and Cosmo Chemical as many investors will now start to sell these stocks based on "buy on rumor, sell on news" strategy.


Trading Strategy Post KRX Rebalance Announcement of KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the potential inclusions and exclusions that the locals are highlighting for the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in May 2023. </li>
<li>The top five best performing stocks YTD that are expected to be included in either KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 include Rainbow Robotics, Kumyang, Cosmo Chemical, Yunsung F&amp;C, and Posco M Tech.</li>
<li>In the coming weeks, there is a higher probability these five stocks underperform the market on average as many investors sell the news on them getting included in these indices. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the potential inclusions and exclusions that the locals are highlighting for the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in May 2023. 
The top five best performing stocks YTD that are expected to be included in either KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 include Rainbow Robotics, Kumyang, Cosmo Chemical, Yunsung F&amp;C, and Posco M Tech.
In the coming weeks, there is a higher probability these five stocks underperform the market on average as many investors sell the news on them getting included in these indices. 


Potential Inclusions & Exclusions for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 in May 2023 Highlighted by Locals

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 3 trading days left in the review period for the June rebalance, we see 8 potential changes and 2 close adds for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>There are two potential transfers from the KOSDAQ Market to KOSPI Market that could lead to more changes in May and/or June.</li>
<li>Nearly all potential deletions are trading near their lows and short interest has been increasing on some of the stocks. That will be covered closer to implementation of the rebalance.</li>
</ul>


With 3 trading days left in the review period for the June rebalance, we see 8 potential changes and 2 close adds for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
There are two potential transfers from the KOSDAQ Market to KOSPI Market that could lead to more changes in May and/or June.
Nearly all potential deletions are trading near their lows and short interest has been increasing on some of the stocks. That will be covered closer to implementation of the rebalance.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Crack (After Huge Outperformance)

South Korea

POSCO M-TECH CO.,LTD. manufactures steel strips used for packing.  The Company also produces deoxidizers used in the steel-making process.  Under  a long-term supply contact, the Company distributes a significant portion of  its output to POSCO.

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Posco M-Tech (009520 KS)

CFD Liquidation in Korea: Posco DX, Celltrion Siblings, and Potential Next Targets

This post investigates what might have happened to Posco DX today and Celltrion siblings yesterday, which are suspected of being the victim of CFD...

Sanghyun Park

Two of KS200/KQ150 Additions Are Prime-Targeted for Shorting Due to Their Inflated Float Shares

This post investigates which of the KOSPI 200/KOSDAQ 150 additions are being prime-targeted for short-selling after index inclusion due to the...

Sanghyun Park

Trading Strategy Post KRX Rebalance Announcement of KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150

Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 indices constituents changes today. We expect continued underperformance of Kumyang and Cosmo...

Douglas Kim

Potential Inclusions & Exclusions for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 in May 2023 Highlighted by Locals

In this insight, we discuss the potential inclusions and exclusions that the locals are highlighting for the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in...

Douglas Kim

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Crack (After Huge Outperformance)

There could be 8 changes at the regular rebalance plus a couple of ad hoc changes. The potential adds ran up a lot and have started to head lower....

Brian Freitas

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