Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

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Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call on PTG with a TP of Bt17.5. We expect the 3Q22 net profit to fall 49% QoQ to Bt306m dragged by lower sales volume </li>
<li>3Q22 profit to improve YoY while soften QoQ We estimate PTG to post 3Q22 net profit of Bt306m (+386% YoY,-49% QoQ),The exceptional YoY growth will be from improved sales growth</li>
<li>The oil sales volume is expected to grow 19% YoY to 1,312 m Liters after economy reopening, while soften 4%QoQ due to seasonal weak demand (rain). Oil marketing margin should</li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call on PTG with a TP of Bt17.5. We expect the 3Q22 net profit to fall 49% QoQ to Bt306m dragged by lower sales volume 
3Q22 profit to improve YoY while soften QoQ We estimate PTG to post 3Q22 net profit of Bt306m (+386% YoY,-49% QoQ),The exceptional YoY growth will be from improved sales growth
The oil sales volume is expected to grow 19% YoY to 1,312 m Liters after economy reopening, while soften 4%QoQ due to seasonal weak demand (rain). Oil marketing margin should


PTG : Seasonality and CPO Stock Loss to Drag 3Q22 Profit

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt17.5. The 2Q22 net profit surged +21% YoY and +275% QoQ to Bt601m (a six-quarter high).The YoY earnings growth was supported </li>
<li>2Q22 net profit grew 3x QoQ The 2Q22 net profit rose +21% YoY and +275% QoQ to Bt601m, a 6-quarter high.The result came out better than ours’ and market expectation.</li>
<li>The oil marketing margin rose 25%QoQ to Bt2.1/Liter,as government began floating the diesel price(eased the price from Bt30/liter to a higher Bt35/litter during May). While the margin softened 5% YoY </li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt17.5. The 2Q22 net profit surged +21% YoY and +275% QoQ to Bt601m (a six-quarter high).The YoY earnings growth was supported 
2Q22 net profit grew 3x QoQ The 2Q22 net profit rose +21% YoY and +275% QoQ to Bt601m, a 6-quarter high.The result came out better than ours’ and market expectation.
The oil marketing margin rose 25%QoQ to Bt2.1/Liter,as government began floating the diesel price(eased the price from Bt30/liter to a higher Bt35/litter during May). While the margin softened 5% YoY 


PTG : Rising Sales & Marketing Margin Drove 2Q22 Profit

<ul>
<li>The 2Q-2H22 outlook looks promising, thanks to solid oil sales volume growth owing to economic recovery from COVID grip and revamping tourism activities. The improving oil marketing margin </li>
<li>Recovering MM should drive 2Q22 earnings : We expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ on the back of better sales volume and marketing margin.</li>
<li>The oil marketing margin should pick up to Bt1.7/liter in 2Q22(+3% QoQ)and remain at 1.7-to-1.8/Liter range in 2H22.From management guidance, the oil sales volume inched up 5% MoM and YoY</li>
</ul>


The 2Q-2H22 outlook looks promising, thanks to solid oil sales volume growth owing to economic recovery from COVID grip and revamping tourism activities. The improving oil marketing margin 
Recovering MM should drive 2Q22 earnings : We expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ on the back of better sales volume and marketing margin.
The oil marketing margin should pick up to Bt1.7/liter in 2Q22(+3% QoQ)and remain at 1.7-to-1.8/Liter range in 2H22.From management guidance, the oil sales volume inched up 5% MoM and YoY


<ul>
<li>We expect PTG to post a net loss of Bt174m in 4Q21E, a first-time quarterly loss dragged by decline in marketing margin of oil retail business.</li>
<li>The price cap implemented by government on diesel during 4Q21 dragged the marketing margin to Bt1.35/liter (-30% YoY, -28% QoQ), well below the breakeven level of Bt1.6/liter.</li>
<li>We expect the earnings to recover from loss 1Q22 onwards and gradually pick up each quarter in 2022, We are more positive on the 2H22-2023 outlook.</li>
</ul>


We expect PTG to post a net loss of Bt174m in 4Q21E, a first-time quarterly loss dragged by decline in marketing margin of oil retail business.
The price cap implemented by government on diesel during 4Q21 dragged the marketing margin to Bt1.35/liter (-30% YoY, -28% QoQ), well below the breakeven level of Bt1.6/liter.
We expect the earnings to recover from loss 1Q22 onwards and gradually pick up each quarter in 2022, We are more positive on the 2H22-2023 outlook.


PTG: Low Marketing Margin to Drag 4Q21 Earnings to Net Loss

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY rating with a target price of Bt18.0, derived from 20xPE’22E, which is equal to World Consumer Staple sector. We see the earnings momentum in 4Q21-2022 </li>
<li>Having the earnings touched bottom in 3Q21 due to lower domestic oil demand from lockdown measures, we see the resumption of travel in 4Q21 to act as key catalyst </li>
<li>The volume sales in expected to improve 10% QoQ in 4Q21 as majority of PTG’s clients are in logistics sector. However, we see drop in marketing margin to Bt1.7/L (-10%QoQ)</li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY rating with a target price of Bt18.0, derived from 20xPE’22E, which is equal to World Consumer Staple sector. We see the earnings momentum in 4Q21-2022 
Having the earnings touched bottom in 3Q21 due to lower domestic oil demand from lockdown measures, we see the resumption of travel in 4Q21 to act as key catalyst 
The volume sales in expected to improve 10% QoQ in 4Q21 as majority of PTG’s clients are in logistics sector. However, we see drop in marketing margin to Bt1.7/L (-10%QoQ)


PTG: Recovering Volume Sales to Drive 4Q21 Profit and Ahead

Thailand

PTG Energy Public Company Limited consists of eight groups of businesses as follows: 1) Oil (the Company's core and original business) and Retail Business, 2) LPG Business, 3) Renewable Energy and Investment Business, 4) Logistics Business, 5) System and Equipment Management Business , 6) Food and Beverage Business 7) Auto Care and Maintenance Business, and 8) Electronic Money Business (e-Money). In this regard, the Company is determined to operate the business with the aim of satisfying consumers' needs in a comprehensive manner.

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PTG Energy PCL (PTG TB)

PTG : Seasonality and CPO Stock Loss to Drag 3Q22 Profit

We maintain the BUY call on PTG with a TP of Bt17.5. We expect the 3Q22 net profit to fall 49% QoQ to Bt306m dragged by lower sales volume and oil...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTG : Rising Sales & Marketing Margin Drove 2Q22 Profit

We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt17.5. The 2Q22 net profit surged +21% YoY and +275% QoQ to Bt601m (a six-quarter high). The YoY earnings...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTG : Improving Sales & Marketing Margin

The 2Q-2H22 outlook looks promising, thanks to solid oil sales volume growth owing to economic recovery from COVID grip and revamping tourism...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTG: Low Marketing Margin to Drag 4Q21 Earnings to Net Loss

We expect PTG to post a net loss of Bt174m in 4Q21E, a first-time quarterly loss dragged by decline in marketing margin of oil retail business.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTG: Recovering Volume Sales to Drive 4Q21 Profit and Ahead

We maintain the BUY rating with a target price of Bt18.0, derived from 20xPE’22E, which is equal to World Consumer Staple sector. We see the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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