Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to replenish stocks that were more balanced than expected at start of Q3 2025.</li><li>Blenders could be targeting additional supplies to cover seasonal rise in consumption in final weeks of Q3 2025.</li><li>Stocks could be more balanced than expected because of unusually strong rise in demand at end-Q2 2025.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to replenish stocks that were more balanced than expected at start of Q3 2025.Blenders could be targeting additional supplies to cover seasonal rise in consumption in final weeks of Q3 2025.Stocks could be more balanced than expected because of unusually strong rise in demand at end-Q2 2025.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 August

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Debt Capital Markets

iShares MSCI Thailand / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We sample blue-chip and household Thai corporations and plot the 12-month probability of default (PD) using iRAP</li>
<li>The median 12-month PD of the above samples was 11.15 basis points (bps), up from 5bps last November, with a trend showing continuing deterioration in the next 12 months</li>
<li>We expect more political upheaval and economic adjustment from the military conflict with Cambodia and the19% tariff on exports to the US to be quite detrimental to the Thai economy.</li>
</ul>


We sample blue-chip and household Thai corporations and plot the 12-month probability of default (PD) using iRAP
The median 12-month PD of the above samples was 11.15 basis points (bps), up from 5bps last November, with a trend showing continuing deterioration in the next 12 months
We expect more political upheaval and economic adjustment from the military conflict with Cambodia and the19% tariff on exports to the US to be quite detrimental to the Thai economy.


Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025.</li><li>Demand could have already got steady underlying support in recent weeks because of tighter-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q3 2025.</li><li>Persistently tighter fundamentals could prompt buyers to maintain higher stocks until they are confident about any sustained improvement in supply.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025.Demand could have already got steady underlying support in recent weeks because of tighter-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q3 2025.Persistently tighter fundamentals could prompt buyers to maintain higher stocks until they are confident about any sustained improvement in supply.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

<ul><li>Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more than five years.</li><li>Similar price-spreads in all those markets contrast with diverging fundamentals driving those similar price-spreads, especially in Europe.</li><li>Similar price-spreads in US vs other markets follow sustained weakness of US heavy-grade prices because of persistent surplus supply.</li></ul>

Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more than five years.Similar price-spreads in all those markets contrast with diverging fundamentals driving those similar price-spreads, especially in Europe.Similar price-spreads in US vs other markets follow sustained weakness of US heavy-grade prices because of persistent surplus supply.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

<ul><li>Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.</li><li>Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.</li><li>Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.</li></ul>

Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

Thailand

PTT Public Company Limited operates as an oil and gas company. The Company produces, transports, and sells natural gas, crude oil, lubricants, aviation and marine, and petrochemical products. PTT offers fleet cards, storage, electronic bill presentment, and other related services. PTT serves customers in Thailand.

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PTT PCL (PTT TB)

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 August

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to replenish stocks that were more balanced than expected at start of Q3 2025. Blenders could...

Base Oil News

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

12-month probability of default for Thai corporations is on the rise, with political and economic challenges ahead due to military conflict and...

Bondcritic

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025. Demand...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024. Lower heavy-grade base oils...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 August

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to replenish stocks that were more balanced than expected at start of Q3 2025. Blenders could...

Base Oil News

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

​12-month probability of default for Thai corporations is on the rise, with political and economic challenges ahead due to military conflict and...

Bondcritic

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025. Demand...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024. Lower heavy-grade base oils...

Base Oil News

12-month probability of default for Thai corporations is on the rise, with political and economic challenges ahead due to military conflict and...