Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices extend rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Increasingly firm margins coincide with closed arbitrage to more distant outlets like Americas, and less feasible arbitrage to logistically-closer markets like India and Middle East.</li><li>Firm margins and closed arbitrage point to tight supply.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices extend rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.Increasingly firm margins coincide with closed arbitrage to more distant outlets like Americas, and less feasible arbitrage to logistically-closer markets like India and Middle East.Firm margins and closed arbitrage point to tight supply.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 March

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could ease, with buyers having already covered requirements for peak-demand season in month of March.</li><li>Typical slowdown in consumption at start of second quarter of year curbs urgency for blenders to replenish supplies.</li><li>Expectations of improving availability in Q2 2025 add to attraction of holding off moves to replenish stocks.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could ease, with buyers having already covered requirements for peak-demand season in month of March.Typical slowdown in consumption at start of second quarter of year curbs urgency for blenders to replenish supplies.Expectations of improving availability in Q2 2025 add to attraction of holding off moves to replenish stocks.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Mar 14th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Advanced Info Service, Carabao.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Mar 14th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Advanced Info Service, Carabao.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Mar 14th): Advanced Info Service, Carabao

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On 4 February, the SET floated a consultation paper on capping stocks in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at 10%.</li>
<li>The move was aimed at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> since it was the only stock with an index weight higher than 10%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> has slid since then and at the current weight of 9.27% will not need to be capped. The market has adjusted for it.</li>
</ul>


On 4 February, the SET floated a consultation paper on capping stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at 10%.
The move was aimed at Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) since it was the only stock with an index weight higher than 10%.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) has slid since then and at the current weight of 9.27% will not need to be capped. The market has adjusted for it.


SET50 Index: Market Moves Adjust for Consultation Proposal; DELTA in the Crosshairs (Again)

<ul><li>Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025.</li><li>Europe Group II prices flip to premium to Europe Group III 4cSt (low) prices in Feb 2025 for first time since mid-2021.</li><li>Relative price-strength of Group II base oils points to firm supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group III base oils.</li></ul>

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025.Europe Group II prices flip to premium to Europe Group III 4cSt (low) prices in Feb 2025 for first time since mid-2021.Relative price-strength of Group II base oils points to firm supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group III base oils.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

Thailand

PTT Public Company Limited operates as an oil and gas company. The Company produces, transports, and sells natural gas, crude oil, lubricants, aviation and marine, and petrochemical products. PTT offers fleet cards, storage, electronic bill presentment, and other related services. PTT serves customers in Thailand.

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PTT PCL (PTT TB)

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 March

Asia’s base oils prices extend rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Increasingly firm margins coincide with closed arbitrage to more...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

Asia’s base oils demand could ease, with buyers having already covered requirements for peak-demand season in month of March. Typical slowdown in...

Base Oil News

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Mar 14th): Advanced Info Service, Carabao

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Advanced Info Service, Carabao.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SET50 Index: Market Moves Adjust for Consultation Proposal; DELTA in the Crosshairs (Again)

The SET is looking to cap stocks in the SET50/SET100 at 10% of the index weight. This is another attempt to curb DELTA's sway on the index. The...

Brian Freitas

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025. Europe Group II prices flip to premium to...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)