Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Not a Pretty Girl: ICICI Bank's (ICICIBANK.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] stated NPLs amount to 10.6%; reserve cover is too light by INR 325 bn; and complying with regulatory capital standards will be a challenge. NIMs and growth will be a challenge on a go forward basis as well.* Awful FYE 4Q18 Results: Excluding the INR 26.9 bn net gain associated with a stake sale in ICICI Securities (ISEC.IN) and other losses, ICICI’s core operating result would have been staunchly negative at INR 12.7 bn – an…

* Not a Pretty Girl: ICICI Bank's (ICICIBANK.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] stated NPLs amount to 10.6%; reserve cover is too light by INR 325 bn; and complying with regulatory capital standards will be a challenge. NIMs and growth will be a challenge on a go forward basis as well.* Awful FYE 4Q18 Results: Excluding the INR 26.9 bn net gain associated with a stake sale in ICICI Securities (ISEC.IN) and other losses, ICICI’s core operating result would have been staunchly negative at INR 12.7 bn – an…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Most are aware of the many reported incidents of fraud within India banking. A simple scan of our colleague <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/941" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:941">Hemindra Hazari</a>'s work will reveal quite a bit. <a href="http://www.iiasadvisory.com" target="_blank">Institutional Investor Advisory Services</a> is a rich source of incidents of fraud in India banking, where they highlight 12,533 cases of fraud, totalling INR182 billion, during 2017. We wonder if India’s banks are structurally more likely to  fraud and operational risk than large peers globally and within Asia? We say this due to stark…

Most are aware of the many reported incidents of fraud within India banking. A simple scan of our colleague Hemindra Hazari's work will reveal quite a bit. Institutional Investor Advisory Services is a rich source of incidents of fraud in India banking, where they highlight 12,533 cases of fraud, totalling INR182 billion, during 2017. We wonder if India’s banks are structurally more likely to  fraud and operational risk than large peers globally and within Asia? We say this due to stark…

India Banks – Is Staffing Critical in Controlling Fraud?

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

Indian banks are dealing with multiple issues, none of which are easily resolvable. However, the recent decline in GOI bond yields has given the banks a temporary reprieve, and in our view, most banks could surprise to the upside when Q4-F18 results are reported. The massive bond hoardes in available for sale portfolios, which impacted some of the banks negatively in Q3-F18, would be marked upwards, realising investment gains on the income statement. The longer term story is less sanguine.

Indian banks are dealing with multiple issues, none of which are easily resolvable. However, the recent decline in GOI bond yields has given the banks a temporary reprieve, and in our view, most banks could surprise to the upside when Q4-F18 results are reported. The massive bond hoardes in available for sale portfolios, which impacted some of the banks negatively in Q3-F18, would be marked upwards, realising investment gains on the income statement. The longer term story is less sanguine.

The Indian Conundrum - A Growing Economy & Stagnant Bank Credit

Associate Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Naman Mishra

Associate Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

Recovery in growth, strong inflationary pressures- Room for a rate hike!!A better than expected growth recovery in Oct-Dec’17 might have shaved off some concerns over growth for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The real GDP grew at a pace of 7.2% year on year (YoY), the fastest in the last five quarters. The bright spot was that the growth was led by a rebound in investment demand which grew by a multi-quarter high growth of 12% YoY.Investment propels GDP growth to a five-quarter high of…

Recovery in growth, strong inflationary pressures- Room for a rate hike!!A better than expected growth recovery in Oct-Dec’17 might have shaved off some concerns over growth for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The real GDP grew at a pace of 7.2% year on year (YoY), the fastest in the last five quarters. The bright spot was that the growth was led by a rebound in investment demand which grew by a multi-quarter high growth of 12% YoY.Investment propels GDP growth to a five-quarter high of…

India: RBI Should Act Sooner than Later to Curb Inflation!

It was always a stretch that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) INR2.1 trillion could well recapitalise the main government-owned banks. At the time of that announcement, there was euphoria over the renewed and positive outlook of these ailing, fledgling government banks. And still the figures did not add up then and they add up even less now. Besides hardly covering the non-performing loans (NPLs) and restructured loans of targeted banks, the recapitalization plan did not require a change in…

It was always a stretch that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) INR2.1 trillion could well recapitalise the main government-owned banks. At the time of that announcement, there was euphoria over the renewed and positive outlook of these ailing, fledgling government banks. And still the figures did not add up then and they add up even less now. Besides hardly covering the non-performing loans (NPLs) and restructured loans of targeted banks, the recapitalization plan did not require a change in…

India – Recap Euphoria, Going, Going, Gone

India

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

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Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)

ICICI Bank – Taking the Lipstick Off

* Not a Pretty Girl: ICICI Bank's (ICICIBANK.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] stated NPLs amount to 10.6%; reserve cover is too light by INR 325 bn; and...

Thomas J. Monaco

India Banks – Is Staffing Critical in Controlling Fraud?

Most are aware of the many reported incidents of fraud within India banking. A simple scan of our colleague Hemindra Hazari's work will reveal...

Daniel Tabbush

The Indian Conundrum - A Growing Economy & Stagnant Bank Credit

Indian banks are dealing with multiple issues, none of which are easily resolvable. However, the recent decline in GOI bond yields has given the...

ANTYA Investments

India: RBI Should Act Sooner than Later to Curb Inflation!

Recovery in growth, strong inflationary pressures- Room for a rate hike!!A better than expected growth recovery in Oct-Dec’17 might have shaved off...

Naman Mishra

India – Recap Euphoria, Going, Going, Gone

It was always a stretch that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) INR2.1 trillion could well recapitalise the main government-owned banks. At the time...

Daniel Tabbush

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