Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cost at PNB are high and rising, a major drag on its ROA and RORWA, which largely offsets better credit metrics. </li>
<li>There are many market positives in India banks, but relative to all large peers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)</a><span>has the lowest</span> RORWA </li>
<li>There is no LDR expansion at PNB. NIM is languishing. Its high 20% govt loans/total loans is high, with 2 peers' even higher, but better returns. </li>
</ul>


Cost at PNB are high and rising, a major drag on its ROA and RORWA, which largely offsets better credit metrics. 
There are many market positives in India banks, but relative to all large peers, Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)has the lowest RORWA 
There is no LDR expansion at PNB. NIM is languishing. Its high 20% govt loans/total loans is high, with 2 peers' even higher, but better returns. 


Punjab National Bank - Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ

<ul>
<li>Bank analysts sometimes like a story with high NPLs; recoveries can be powerful to profit</li>
<li>For the past 7 quarters, NPLs are in decline at PNB, but most recent quarter is strongest</li>
<li>There remains a large pool of NPLs at 8.7% of loans, for possible ongoing recoveries</li>
</ul>


Bank analysts sometimes like a story with high NPLs; recoveries can be powerful to profit
For the past 7 quarters, NPLs are in decline at PNB, but most recent quarter is strongest
There remains a large pool of NPLs at 8.7% of loans, for possible ongoing recoveries


Punjab National Bank - Soaring Recoveries, From High NPLs, Pushes Profit Up 5.4x

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aadhar-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32152:1" rel="noopener">Aadhar Housing Finance</a>(AHF) raised around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Aadhar Housing Finance(AHF) raised around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Trading - More Loved by Institutional Investors than Retail

Go Digit General Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/go-digit-general-insurance-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36266:1" rel="noopener">Go Digit General Insurance </a>is looking to raise around US$315m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Go Digit General Insurance is a digital full stack insurance company, offering motor insurance, health insurance, travel insurance, property insurance, marine insurance, liability insurance and other insurance products.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s performance in our past note. In this note, we talk about the refiling updates and valuations.</li>
</ul>



Go Digit General Insurance is looking to raise around US$315m in its India IPO.
Go Digit General Insurance is a digital full stack insurance company, offering motor insurance, health insurance, travel insurance, property insurance, marine insurance, liability insurance and other insurance products.
We have looked at the company’s performance in our past note. In this note, we talk about the refiling updates and valuations.


Go Digit General Insurance IPO - Growth Remains Strong, Valuation Isn’t Cheap

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a>'s deletion from Sensex is imminent but there are question marks over the top replacement names as this involves some subjectivity.  </li>
<li>For BSE 100, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> is a new potential ADD and that has caused major changes to the index change expectations I had previously.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.

Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)'s deletion from Sensex is imminent but there are question marks over the top replacement names as this involves some subjectivity.  
For BSE 100, Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) is a new potential ADD and that has caused major changes to the index change expectations I had previously.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

India

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

Price Gauge
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Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)

Punjab National Bank - Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ

PNB is seeing rising operating costs, languishing NIM, stagnant LDR. Its high government loans may be a key burden on returns. Credit cost decline...

Daniel Tabbush

Punjab National Bank - Soaring Recoveries, From High NPLs, Pushes Profit Up 5.4x

Soaring recoveries supports fee income, lower NPLs support far lower credit costs, profit up more than 5x YoY and strength can continue. Market...

Daniel Tabbush

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Trading - More Loved by Institutional Investors than Retail

Aadhar Housing Finance(AHF) raised around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Go Digit General Insurance IPO - Growth Remains Strong, Valuation Isn’t Cheap

Go Digit General Insurance is looking to raise around US$315m in its India IPO. We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier...

Sumeet Singh

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

The reference period for the BSE/SENSEX June 2024 ended on 30th April 2024. The index expectations discussed in this insight are our final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Punjab National Bank - Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ

PNB is seeing rising operating costs, languishing NIM, stagnant LDR. Its high government loans may be a key burden on returns. Credit cost decline...

Daniel Tabbush

Punjab National Bank - Soaring Recoveries, From High NPLs, Pushes Profit Up 5.4x

Soaring recoveries supports fee income, lower NPLs support far lower credit costs, profit up more than 5x YoY and strength can continue. Market...

Daniel Tabbush

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Trading - More Loved by Institutional Investors than Retail

Aadhar Housing Finance(AHF) raised around US$360m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Go Digit General Insurance IPO - Growth Remains Strong, Valuation Isn’t Cheap

Go Digit General Insurance is looking to raise around US$315m in its India IPO. We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier...

Sumeet Singh

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

The reference period for the BSE/SENSEX June 2024 ended on 30th April 2024. The index expectations discussed in this insight are our final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities