Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

On the surface, there would appear to be challenging times ahead for the restaurant industry, with year over-over traffic declines across much of the industry and rising labor costs on the horizon. However, we believe it would be shortsighted for investors to overlook this category, as there are a number of compelling operators that are redefining the way consumer discretionary companies adapt to constantly evolving consumer expectations regarding value, convenience, health, and technology. Our analysis starts with the fast-casual restaurant category, which is not only changing consumers' expectations regarding restaurant experiences, but also influencing how the market values restaurant concepts and forcing traditional quick-service and casual-dining chains to reinvent themselves. However, one of the more underexplored developments in the restaurant space thus far in 2016 is a bifurcation within the fast-casual category, with a class of chains thriving but several other players aspiring to be the "next Chipotle" finding success more difficult (not to mention Chipotle's own struggles). We've spent 2015 and 2016 getting to know many of the up-and-coming privately held fast-casual players to gain a better understanding of what attributes restaurant concepts must have to develop an economic moat and drive traffic in today's environment. We then examined our restaurant coverage to see where we can locate similar traits and, more importantly, where the market may not be giving restaurant chains enough credit. We believe the market may be underestimating the changes that several players in our restaurant coverage have made to adapt to these trends, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7641" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7641:1">Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8104" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8104:1">Panera Bread Co (PNRA US)</a>, both of which trade at a significant discount to our respective longer-term DCF-driven fair value estimates of $63 and $250.Analyst: R. J. Hottovy, CFA

On the surface, there would appear to be challenging times ahead for the restaurant industry, with year over-over traffic declines across much of the industry and rising labor costs on the horizon. However, we believe it would be shortsighted for investors to overlook this category, as there are a number of compelling operators that are redefining the way consumer discretionary companies adapt to constantly evolving consumer expectations regarding value, convenience, health, and technology. Our analysis starts with the fast-casual restaurant category, which is not only changing consumers' expectations regarding restaurant experiences, but also influencing how the market values restaurant concepts and forcing traditional quick-service and casual-dining chains to reinvent themselves. However, one of the more underexplored developments in the restaurant space thus far in 2016 is a bifurcation within the fast-casual category, with a class of chains thriving but several other players aspiring to be the "next Chipotle" finding success more difficult (not to mention Chipotle's own struggles). We've spent 2015 and 2016 getting to know many of the up-and-coming privately held fast-casual players to gain a better understanding of what attributes restaurant concepts must have to develop an economic moat and drive traffic in today's environment. We then examined our restaurant coverage to see where we can locate similar traits and, more importantly, where the market may not be giving restaurant chains enough credit. We believe the market may be underestimating the changes that several players in our restaurant coverage have made to adapt to these trends, including Starbucks Corp (SBUX US) and Panera Bread Co (PNRA US), both of which trade at a significant discount to our respective longer-term DCF-driven fair value estimates of $63 and $250.Analyst: R. J. Hottovy, CFA

Lessons From the Next Generation of Moats in the Fast-Casual Restaurant Industry

United States

PVH Corp. designs, sources, manufactures, and markets men's, women's, and children's apparel and footwear.  The Company markets its products at a wholesale level through department store chains and directly to consumers through retail stores. PVH Corp offers attire that includes dress shirts, sportswear, neckwear, and footwear.

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Pvh Corp (PVH US)

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector. Charts highlighted: AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH,...

Vermilion Research

Lessons From the Next Generation of Moats in the Fast-Casual Restaurant Industry

On the surface, there would appear to be challenging times ahead for the restaurant industry, with year over-over traffic declines across much of...

Morningstar, Inc.

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