Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>QCOM estimates ~5% Android revenues growth Cagr to FY29, Automotive 22%, IoT 21%. If QCOM keeps Apple business, revenue Cagr will be 9% to FY29. If QCOM loses it: 6%.</li>
<li>Mngt forecasts high Opex control, target at 22% of revenue, which looks aggressive. Opex reached 31% in FY23-24 . At 22% Opex, Operating Profit would grow ~13% Cagr to FY29.</li>
<li>Android growth looks low, Opex control demanding. As such, we could conclude that 10% Operating Profit Cagr is more likely than 13%. Even with lower growth, the stock is cheap. </li>
</ul>


QCOM estimates ~5% Android revenues growth Cagr to FY29, Automotive 22%, IoT 21%. If QCOM keeps Apple business, revenue Cagr will be 9% to FY29. If QCOM loses it: 6%.
Mngt forecasts high Opex control, target at 22% of revenue, which looks aggressive. Opex reached 31% in FY23-24 . At 22% Opex, Operating Profit would grow ~13% Cagr to FY29.
Android growth looks low, Opex control demanding. As such, we could conclude that 10% Operating Profit Cagr is more likely than 13%. Even with lower growth, the stock is cheap. 


Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Asustek Guides for 20%+ YoY PC Revenue Growth in 4Q24E;  Lenovo Delivers 17% YoY PC Revenue Growth in CY3Q24</li>
<li>AI PCs: A Multi-Year Upgrade Cycle with Rising Average Selling Prices; AI PCs 80% of the PC Market by 2027E</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long View for AI PC Up-Cycle; Asustek, Acer, &amp; Lenovo Well-Positioned Through 2025E</li>
</ul>


Asustek Guides for 20%+ YoY PC Revenue Growth in 4Q24E;  Lenovo Delivers 17% YoY PC Revenue Growth in CY3Q24
AI PCs: A Multi-Year Upgrade Cycle with Rising Average Selling Prices; AI PCs 80% of the PC Market by 2027E
Maintain Structural Long View for AI PC Up-Cycle; Asustek, Acer, &amp; Lenovo Well-Positioned Through 2025E


PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.</li>
<li>Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.</li>
<li>Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. </li>
</ul>


TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.
Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.
Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. 


Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Qualcomm's latest quarterly earnings reflect both positive trajectories and ongoing challenges.</li><li>The firm's reported non-GAAP revenue of $10.2 billion and earnings per share of $2.69 surpassed their guidance, driven primarily by strong performance in their chipset and licensing businesses.</li><li>The chipset division generated $8.7 billion, while the licensing segment contributed $1.5 billion.</li></ul>

Qualcomm's latest quarterly earnings reflect both positive trajectories and ongoing challenges.The firm's reported non-GAAP revenue of $10.2 billion and earnings per share of $2.69 surpassed their guidance, driven primarily by strong performance in their chipset and licensing businesses.The chipset division generated $8.7 billion, while the licensing segment contributed $1.5 billion.

Qualcomm Hits Record Growth in Automotive and IoT

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>ARM reported good numbers with steady guidance for the coming quarter.</li><li>Qualcomm's earnings performed well, but concerns exist over rising costs and potential loss of customers.</li><li>Uncertainty surrounds US government policies on semiconductor manufacturing and trade with China, impacting industry players like Intel and Nvidia.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

ARM reported good numbers with steady guidance for the coming quarter.Qualcomm's earnings performed well, but concerns exist over rising costs and potential loss of customers.Uncertainty surrounds US government policies on semiconductor manufacturing and trade with China, impacting industry players like Intel and Nvidia.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 93: Arm/QCOM Earnings, Trump Presidency Impact on Semis, NVDA Preview

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

QCOM expects 5% Android revenue growth, 22% in Automotive, 21% in IoT to FY29. Opex target at 22% of revenue, implying 13% Operating Profit Cagr....

Nicolas Baratte

PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process

Asustek, Acer, and Lenovo well-positioned for AI PC market growth, with Asus guiding for 20%+ YoY PC revenue growth in 4Q24E. AI PCs expected to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm Hits Record Growth in Automotive and IoT

Qualcomm's latest quarterly earnings reflect both positive trajectories and ongoing challenges. The firm's reported non-GAAP revenue of $10.2...

Baptista Research

Episode 93: Arm/QCOM Earnings, Trump Presidency Impact on Semis, NVDA Preview

In this episode of The Circuit podcast, various semiconductor companies including ARM, Qualcomm, Intel, and Nvidia are discussed, with a focus on...

The Circuit

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

​QCOM expects 5% Android revenue growth, 22% in Automotive, 21% in IoT to FY29. Opex target at 22% of revenue, implying 13% Operating Profit Cagr....

Nicolas Baratte

PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process

​Asustek, Acer, and Lenovo well-positioned for AI PC market growth, with Asus guiding for 20%+ YoY PC revenue growth in 4Q24E. AI PCs expected to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

​TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm Hits Record Growth in Automotive and IoT

Qualcomm's latest quarterly earnings reflect both positive trajectories and ongoing challenges. The firm's reported non-GAAP revenue of $10.2...

Baptista Research

Episode 93: Arm/QCOM Earnings, Trump Presidency Impact on Semis, NVDA Preview

In this episode of The Circuit podcast, various semiconductor companies including ARM, Qualcomm, Intel, and Nvidia are discussed, with a focus on...

The Circuit

QCOM expects 5% Android revenue growth, 22% in Automotive, 21% in IoT to FY29. Opex target at 22% of revenue, implying 13% Operating Profit Cagr....

Asustek, Acer, and Lenovo well-positioned for AI PC market growth, with Asus guiding for 20%+ YoY PC revenue growth in 4Q24E. AI PCs expected to...

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...