Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>APM Human Services (APM) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.</li>
<li>APM is an international human services provider, it runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


APM Human Services (APM) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.
APM is an international human services provider, it runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up - PE with a US$620m Stake Comes Free

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ANZ announced a US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank in Jul 2022.</li>
<li>The institutional part of the entitlement offer saw a strong take up and the shares have held up well since the deal was announced.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming retail shortfall bookbuild and other updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


ANZ announced a US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank in Jul 2022.
The institutional part of the entitlement offer saw a strong take up and the shares have held up well since the deal was announced.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming retail shortfall bookbuild and other updates since our last note.


ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Could Be a Relatively Large (A$550-750m) Retail Shortfall

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest drawback of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>’s share price momentum over the last few years was its Mobile business’ losses.</li>
<li>However, based on Rakuten’s projections, the Mobile business could get close to breaking even by Q4 2023.</li>
<li>With narrowing Mobile losses and outperforming E-commerce and Fintech, we think it is unreasonable for Rakuten to trade at a 40% discount to the bottom-end of the long-term trend channel.</li>
</ul>


The biggest drawback of Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)’s share price momentum over the last few years was its Mobile business’ losses.
However, based on Rakuten’s projections, the Mobile business could get close to breaking even by Q4 2023.
With narrowing Mobile losses and outperforming E-commerce and Fintech, we think it is unreasonable for Rakuten to trade at a 40% discount to the bottom-end of the long-term trend channel.


Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Mobile losses narrowed sequentially as expected but not by much as the company missed consensus and Redex expectations for profitability</li>
<li>Rakuten also reported a 220K net subscriber loss in the quarter as point-chasing free users churned off when zero-yen tiers were cancelled but worringly, network coverage/capacity was also a factor</li>
<li>If there is a silver lining, fintech businesses Rakuten Bank and Securities posted solid results and remain on pace to IPO but negative mobile sentiment is unlikely to change</li>
</ul>


Mobile losses narrowed sequentially as expected but not by much as the company missed consensus and Redex expectations for profitability
Rakuten also reported a 220K net subscriber loss in the quarter as point-chasing free users churned off when zero-yen tiers were cancelled but worringly, network coverage/capacity was also a factor
If there is a silver lining, fintech businesses Rakuten Bank and Securities posted solid results and remain on pace to IPO but negative mobile sentiment is unlikely to change


Rakuten (Neutral) - Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Losses Narrow but Little Good News Beyond That

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up - PE with a US$620m Stake Comes Free

APM Human Services (APM) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire...

Sumeet Singh

ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Could Be a Relatively Large (A$550-750m) Retail Shortfall

ANZ announced a US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank in Jul 2022. The retail...

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten: Turning a Corner

With narrowing Mobile losses and outperforming E-commerce and Fintech, we think it is unreasonable for Rakuten to trade at a 40% discount to the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Rakuten (Neutral) - Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Losses Narrow but Little Good News Beyond That

Operating losses in mobile improved sequentially as promised but a net loss in subscribers and likely delays to targets for sustainable break-even...

Kirk Boodry

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