Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's secular bull market gained after DeepSeek's announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:492:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)</a> broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-cloud-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36647:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK)</a> is benefiting from the AI rally.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> shares to fall.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's secular bull market gained after DeepSeek's announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.

Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.

BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

Equity Bottom-Up

Sunny Optical Technology Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha Portfolio returned -1.29% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 0.34%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 7.93% to 9.64% since its inception on 10/01/24.  </li>
<li> About 75% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy or Materials. </li>
<li>At month-end we sold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cinda-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:372:1" rel="noopener">China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20590:1" rel="noopener">Citic Ltd (267 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


HK Alpha Portfolio returned -1.29% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 0.34%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 7.93% to 9.64% since its inception on 10/01/24.  
 About 75% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy or Materials.  
At month-end we sold China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK) , Citic Ltd (267 HK) , China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) and GDS Holdings (9698 HK) .  


China

RoboSense Technology Co., Ltd provides LiDAR and perception solutions. The Company offers hardware, sensors, and AI perception software. RoboSense Technology applies its products in a wide range of application scenarios, particularly ADAS (advanced driving assistance system) and robotics. RoboSense Technology serves customers in China and North America.

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Robosense Technology (2498 HK)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

HK stocks gained momentum after the DeepSeek announcement. Kingsoft shares broke out to new highs after announcing that WPS had DAUs of 100mm. BYD...

David Mudd

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (January 2025)

Hong Kong Alpha portfolio lost 1.29% in January and outperformed its benchmark. We sold GDS, Citic, Cinda and China Galaxy Securities. We added...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

HK stocks gained momentum after the DeepSeek announcement. Kingsoft shares broke out to new highs after announcing that WPS had DAUs of 100mm. BYD...

David Mudd

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (January 2025)

Hong Kong Alpha portfolio lost 1.29% in January and outperformed its benchmark. We sold GDS, Citic, Cinda and China Galaxy Securities. We added...

David Mudd

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...