Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A Fed pause historically means that the recession clock starts ticking and rings in the recession when the Fed starts cutting.</li>
<li>The outlook for cuts?</li>
<li>That’s properly worth a watch series on its own but with long-end rates below 4%, equity markets making YTD highs, strong corporate profitability and a labor market that still shows strength, we venture to say that those cuts are likely not around the corner.</li>
</ul>


A Fed pause historically means that the recession clock starts ticking and rings in the recession when the Fed starts cutting.
The outlook for cuts?
That’s properly worth a watch series on its own but with long-end rates below 4%, equity markets making YTD highs, strong corporate profitability and a labor market that still shows strength, we venture to say that those cuts are likely not around the corner.


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Easy comparisons contributed to lower US inflation in 2023 H1, but the backdrop in H2 is less favourable, thereby making the Fed wary of premature dovish policy pivots.</li>
<li>Economic soft-landings have never been good for corporate profits, thereby helping to explain why analysts have set such a low bar for the 2023 Q2 reporting season. </li>
<li>Glaring inconsistencies are embedded in the 2024 outlooks for corporate profits and Fed policy, notably resource utilisation in the US economy remains too elevated to quickly cull inflation pressures.</li>
</ul>


Easy comparisons contributed to lower US inflation in 2023 H1, but the backdrop in H2 is less favourable, thereby making the Fed wary of premature dovish policy pivots.
Economic soft-landings have never been good for corporate profits, thereby helping to explain why analysts have set such a low bar for the 2023 Q2 reporting season. 
Glaring inconsistencies are embedded in the 2024 outlooks for corporate profits and Fed policy, notably resource utilisation in the US economy remains too elevated to quickly cull inflation pressures.


US Equities Outlook: Time for a Reality Check

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>The US Truck Tonnage Index (TTI) 'explains' 95% of the level of US GDP. After a substantial increase in June, the TTI does not point to an immediate US recession.</li>
<li>Given its robust relationship with US stock markets, we derive 'fair value' estimates for the Dow Jones Transportation and S&amp;P 500 Index, revealing ample downside for both indices.</li>
<li>In addition, a simple TTI-based investment strategy using these fair value estimates results in a superior Sharpe ratio, explained by higher returns and lower risk.</li>
</ul>


The US Truck Tonnage Index (TTI) 'explains' 95% of the level of US GDP. After a substantial increase in June, the TTI does not point to an immediate US recession.
Given its robust relationship with US stock markets, we derive 'fair value' estimates for the Dow Jones Transportation and S&amp;P 500 Index, revealing ample downside for both indices.
In addition, a simple TTI-based investment strategy using these fair value estimates results in a superior Sharpe ratio, explained by higher returns and lower risk.


A Key US Macro Indicator Rose the Most Since Covid but Still Points to 20% Downside in Equities

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Where Is the Stimulus

<ul>
<li>While early, the comparison to the previous quarter is remarkable. Almost all sectors reported better-than-expected earnings, but the market reaction has been negative in most cases. </li>
<li>Investors are fixated on inflation and the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. But the strong US labor market means the Fed will want to keep rates higher for longer. </li>
<li>The net percentage of bulls in the survey has risen to nearly 30%, pushing our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index further into 'Frenzy' territory.</li>
</ul>


While early, the comparison to the previous quarter is remarkable. Almost all sectors reported better-than-expected earnings, but the market reaction has been negative in most cases. 
Investors are fixated on inflation and the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. But the strong US labor market means the Fed will want to keep rates higher for longer. 
The net percentage of bulls in the survey has risen to nearly 30%, pushing our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index further into 'Frenzy' territory.


The Weekly Market Monitor (29) - The Moment of Truth?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Pause Watch: 25 bps and then a pause!?

A Fed pause historically means that the recession clock starts ticking and rings in the recession when the Fed starts cutting. The outlook for...

Steno Research

US Equities Outlook: Time for a Reality Check

US equity investors have embraced benign outlooks for inflation, Fed policy and a recovery in corporate profits. Resource utilisation has not,...

DeSaque Macro Research

A Key US Macro Indicator Rose the Most Since Covid but Still Points to 20% Downside in Equities

Despite a substantial gain in the US Truck Tonnage Index in June, freight activity reveals significant downside in equities.

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Where Is the Stimulus

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

The Weekly Market Monitor (29) - The Moment of Truth?

The US labor market remains uncomfortably tight, keeping bond yields high, providing massive pressure on overvalued Big Tech stocks to deliver on...

Jeroen Blokland