Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Truck Tonnage Index (TTI) 'explains' up to 95% of the variation in US GDP and explains more than 80% of the levels of US stock markets.</li>
<li>A strategy that goes 100% long US equities when the TTI-based fair value estimate exceeds the current index level beats a traditional buy-and-hold strategy.</li>
<li>However, with the current fair value estimate 20% lower than current index levels, this superior strategy would currently be in cash rather than stocks.</li>
</ul>


The Truck Tonnage Index (TTI) 'explains' up to 95% of the variation in US GDP and explains more than 80% of the levels of US stock markets.
A strategy that goes 100% long US equities when the TTI-based fair value estimate exceeds the current index level beats a traditional buy-and-hold strategy.
However, with the current fair value estimate 20% lower than current index levels, this superior strategy would currently be in cash rather than stocks.


Transforming the Truck Tonnage Index into a Superior-Performing Investment Strategy

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Fed Liquidity is trending higher through a 'Stealth' QE, despite latest dip in weekly numbers</li>
<li>Liquidity is the key ingredient driving asset markets higher it pays investors to closely monitor these vital inflow of funds</li>
<li>Fed Liquidity feeds into Global Liquidity, which includes the actions of other policy-makers, as well as the activities of private back and lenders. It has risen sizeably since late 2022</li>
</ul>


Fed Liquidity is trending higher through a 'Stealth' QE, despite latest dip in weekly numbers
Liquidity is the key ingredient driving asset markets higher it pays investors to closely monitor these vital inflow of funds
Fed Liquidity feeds into Global Liquidity, which includes the actions of other policy-makers, as well as the activities of private back and lenders. It has risen sizeably since late 2022


‘Stealth QE’ Continues At The Fed ... Probably

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>1st chart shows us the 2023 % returns &amp; the holdings weightings while the 2nd table is a return attribution analysis which tells us exactly that 10.25% (1025 b.p basis points) are due to just 7 stocks, the M7 (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta/Facebook &amp; Google/Alphabet. Let that sink in!</li><li>The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023</li><li>To continues smoothly here, the S&amp;P 500 with the stocks above their 52-week lows &amp; below their 52-week highs: tech, AI, semiconductors and consumer discretionary are leading and hot, while energy, cruises &amp; travel cooled off in the last year</li></ul>

1st chart shows us the 2023 % returns &amp; the holdings weightings while the 2nd table is a return attribution analysis which tells us exactly that 10.25% (1025 b.p basis points) are due to just 7 stocks, the M7 (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta/Facebook &amp; Google/Alphabet. Let that sink in!The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023To continues smoothly here, the S&amp;P 500 with the stocks above their 52-week lows &amp; below their 52-week highs: tech, AI, semiconductors and consumer discretionary are leading and hot, while energy, cruises &amp; travel cooled off in the last year

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Valuation & Key Metrics - Ed #2

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>This past week, the S&amp;P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak.</li><li>Last week also saw the Nasdaq post 4 consecutive days of net new lows, signaling caution.</li><li>A healthy and much needed pullback could offer opportunities ahead of the upcoming second quarter earnings season.</li></ul>

This past week, the S&amp;P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak.Last week also saw the Nasdaq post 4 consecutive days of net new lows, signaling caution.A healthy and much needed pullback could offer opportunities ahead of the upcoming second quarter earnings season.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Historically, US equities have frequently displayed a tendency to become disconnected from the real economy, but the order of magnitude since the global financial crisis is unprecedented. </li>
<li>Higher equity valuations will be under threat if the Fed is forced to further alter forward guidance in a hawkish manner due to sticky inflation.</li>
<li>Fed Chair Powell received no political pushback at his semi-annual Congressional testimony on monetary policy to raising interest rates further if necessary.</li>
</ul>


Historically, US equities have frequently displayed a tendency to become disconnected from the real economy, but the order of magnitude since the global financial crisis is unprecedented. 
Higher equity valuations will be under threat if the Fed is forced to further alter forward guidance in a hawkish manner due to sticky inflation.
Fed Chair Powell received no political pushback at his semi-annual Congressional testimony on monetary policy to raising interest rates further if necessary.


US Equities and the Real Economy: Large Disconnect Vulnerable to Prolonged Hawkish Fed Policy Stance

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Transforming the Truck Tonnage Index into a Superior-Performing Investment Strategy

A strategy that goes long only when Truck Tonnage Index-bases fair value levels are above the current index levels yields a superior risk-return...

Jeroen Blokland

‘Stealth QE’ Continues At The Fed ... Probably

Global Liquidity is being fuelled by a US-led 'Stealth' QE. Liquidity is the key ingredient driving asset markets higher it pays investors to...

Michael J. Howell

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Valuation & Key Metrics - Ed #2

The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023

Maverick Equity Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/26

This past week, the S&P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak. Last week also saw the Nasdaq post...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

US Equities and the Real Economy: Large Disconnect Vulnerable to Prolonged Hawkish Fed Policy Stance

US equities are often disconnected with the real economy, but particularly since 2009. Valuations have climbed since last October and are...

DeSaque Macro Research