Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.</li>
<li>Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. </li>
<li>None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. </li>
</ul>


Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.
Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. 
None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. 


Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.</li>
<li>The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. </li>
<li>The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.</li>
</ul>


The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.
The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. 
The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.


ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>It was a busy week with index rebalance implementations and announcements of index changes.</li>
<li>The coming week has the KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 rebalancing on Thursday and a bunch of onshore China indices rebalancing on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to China ETFs during the week while the largest inflows went to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> ETF.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy week with index rebalance implementations and announcements of index changes.
The coming week has the KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 rebalancing on Thursday and a bunch of onshore China indices rebalancing on Friday.
There were big inflows to China ETFs during the week while the largest inflows went to the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) ETF.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Debt Ceiling Relief

<ul>
<li>History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.</li>
<li>We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.</li>
<li>When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.</li>
</ul>


History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.
We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.
When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.


Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

Shedding more light on what US yield curve inversion actually means for the likelihood of US recessions and asset class returns.

Jeroen Blokland

ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

The AI Boom remains real, but so is deteriorating Macro, extreme SKEW, the MOVE-VIX divergence, and lofty Big Tech valuation.

Jeroen Blokland

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Debt Ceiling Relief

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

No current stock market boom is evident, but concerns arise regarding market breadth and concentration of market value in a few major stocks.

Jeroen Blokland