Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.</li>
<li>
Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.</li>
<li>This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June's decision, regardless of the outcome.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.

Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.
This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June's decision, regardless of the outcome.


Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bank of Japan, and the Fed.</li>
<li>
Index Rebalancings for the Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, and US benchmark indices. </li>
<li>
Elections: South Korea Presidential Elections on 3 June; potential for the opposition party to win the presidency.</li>
</ul>



Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bank of Japan, and the Fed.

Index Rebalancings for the Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, and US benchmark indices. 

Elections: South Korea Presidential Elections on 3 June; potential for the opposition party to win the presidency.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Following shareholder approval of the proposal to reduce the Foreign Ownership Limit from 100% to 49.5%, NSDL has updated the FOL. This starts the process of passive selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato</a>.</li>
<li>Passives will sell US$350m at the close on Tuesday. There is a low probability of more selling later in the week. There will be bigger selling in August.</li>
<li>The size of the selling in August and beyond will depend on what foreign investors do in the stock till the end of June. Watch the red flag/ breach list.</li>
</ul>


Following shareholder approval of the proposal to reduce the Foreign Ownership Limit from 100% to 49.5%, NSDL has updated the FOL. This starts the process of passive selling in Zomato.
Passives will sell US$350m at the close on Tuesday. There is a low probability of more selling later in the week. There will be bigger selling in August.
The size of the selling in August and beyond will depend on what foreign investors do in the stock till the end of June. Watch the red flag/ breach list.


Zomato/Eternal: The BIG Passive Selling Starts

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In line with forecasts, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index</a> after the close of trading on 20 June.</li>
<li>Passive funds are estimated to buy 3-4 days of ADV in the adds and sell 1-10 days of ADV in the deletes. That increase to 3.5-17 days of delivery volume.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> stock has dropped recently due to a large quarterly loss and allegations of fraud. The stock is also a potential deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


In line with forecasts, Trent and Bharat Electronics will replace Nestle India and Indusind Bank in the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
Passive funds are estimated to buy 3-4 days of ADV in the adds and sell 1-10 days of ADV in the deletes. That increase to 3.5-17 days of delivery volume.

Indusind Bank (IIB IN) stock has dropped recently due to a large quarterly loss and allegations of fraud. The stock is also a potential deletion from the NIFTY Index.


SENSEX Index Rebalance: Trent, Bharat Electronics to Replace Nestle, IndusInd Bank

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) surpassed Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in Nifty-500 shareholding for the first time in March 2025, signalling a market shift.</li>
<li>We delve into their sectoral bets, where both FII and DII flows moved in unfiorm direction</li>
<li>This shift means more sustainable flows for Indian markets, which can cushion them during a volatile environment.</li>
</ul>


Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) surpassed Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in Nifty-500 shareholding for the first time in March 2025, signalling a market shift.
We delve into their sectoral bets, where both FII and DII flows moved in unfiorm direction
This shift means more sustainable flows for Indian markets, which can cushion them during a volatile environment.


Thematic Report: DIIs Surpass FIIs Holdings in India; A Look at Their Sectoral Bets

India

The S&P BSE Sensex Index is a cap-weighted index. The index members have been selected on the basis of liquidity, depth, and floating-stock-adjustment depth and industry representation. Sensex has a base date and value of 100 in 1978-1979. The Index shifted to free-float methodology since 09/01/03. Please see {SNSXOLD Index <GO>} for mid-month options.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

On Friday, 10:00 am IST the RBI will release its monetary policy statement - live broadcast on the RBI's youtube channel. Both the Nifty 50 and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

The Month Ahead: Key Events in June 2025

Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.

Gaudenz Schneider

Zomato/Eternal: The BIG Passive Selling Starts

Shareholders have approved the FOL reduction from 100% to 49.5% and NSDL has updated their website. That leads to passive selling on Tuesday and...

Brian Freitas

SENSEX Index Rebalance: Trent, Bharat Electronics to Replace Nestle, IndusInd Bank

Trent and Bharat Electronics will replace Nestle and IndusInd Bank in the Sensex from 23 June. The changes were forecast and there is positioning...

Brian Freitas

Thematic Report: DIIs Surpass FIIs Holdings in India; A Look at Their Sectoral Bets

In a market shift, DIIs overtake FIIs in Nifty-500 shareholding for the first time, signaling more sustainable flows for Indian markets.

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

On Friday, 10:00 am IST the RBI will release its monetary policy statement - live broadcast on the RBI's youtube channel. Both the Nifty 50 and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

The Month Ahead: Key Events in June 2025

​Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.

Gaudenz Schneider

Zomato/Eternal: The BIG Passive Selling Starts

Shareholders have approved the FOL reduction from 100% to 49.5% and NSDL has updated their website. That leads to passive selling on Tuesday and...

Brian Freitas

SENSEX Index Rebalance: Trent, Bharat Electronics to Replace Nestle, IndusInd Bank

Trent and Bharat Electronics will replace Nestle and IndusInd Bank in the Sensex from 23 June. The changes were forecast and there is positioning...

Brian Freitas

Thematic Report: DIIs Surpass FIIs Holdings in India; A Look at Their Sectoral Bets

​In a market shift, DIIs overtake FIIs in Nifty-500 shareholding for the first time, signaling more sustainable flows for Indian markets.

Nimish Maheshwari

Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.

In a market shift, DIIs overtake FIIs in Nifty-500 shareholding for the first time, signaling more sustainable flows for Indian markets.